763 FXUS61 KCAR 312334 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 734 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks north into Western Maine this evening. Low pressure will continue north through Quebec Sunday and Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 7:30 PM Update...Forecast remains on track at this time. Based on latest SPC mesoanalysis, the center of the low pressure system impacting the region is over western Maine. This puts northern and eastern Maine in a dry slot, save for some scattered rain showers. Rain will fill back in later tonight, especially in the North. This is due to precipitation wrapping around the low. Updated the Aviation section to reflect the 00z TAFs. Previous Discussion... A deep dry slot is currently pushing north through the forecast area. However, the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine are enough to maintain a very stable layer up through our coast, persisting low level clouds across the forecast area, even where rain ceases. This stable layer is also limiting the thunder threat beyond a couple lightning strikes detected earlier. Moderate to heavy rain across the north will move out to the north over the next several hours as the dry slot proceeds further north. The lapse in rainfall will not last long, as the back side of the occluding low pressure will pull in from the west this evening, bringing another round of rain showers throughout the forecast area. Rainfall will likely be more on the light to moderate side with these next showers, but another quarter of an inch of rain is possible, especially across the north. Cloud cover will remain across the entire area through the night, while winds begin to increase. On Sunday, gusty winds will mix down from a strong LLJ aloft, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph. Rain showers may linger across the north through the day, but skies will begin to clear out Downeast through the day. High temperatures will rebound some on Sunday, with highs reaching into the low to mid 60s over most of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday night...The center of the low pressure system is expected to move off to the north. Models are in good agreement with the continuation of rain showers throughout the day, but with the wrapping of moisture around the center, the rain could be sporadic. Breezy SW winds should decrease throughout the night and shift to the W with the exiting low. Monday...Rain showers are expected to continue through the morning across the north. The south will see less rain and skies clearing by the afternoon. The clears clearing in the afternoon will help boost temps in the south to the mid 60s while the north should see upper 50s. Monday night...The upper level trof starts to move off to the east while the surface ridge builds in. Upper level model soundings show the clouds sticking around through much of the night. This will keep temps in the 40s with the cooler airmass staying put. Tuesday...The surface ridge should settle in with mostly clear skies and warmer temps. Expect breezy SW winds and temps in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The surface ridge should remain in the region for Wednesday. The approaching cold front should put the region into S flow. This with ample sunshine, the warm airmass, and breezy S winds should push temps into the 80s across the region with cooler temps along the coast. Extend models show good agreement on the cold front moving into the area by Thursday. Models have indicating some instability with this front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible at this time, but newer model runs should increase confidence. Uncertainty in the model increases by Thursday night to the end of the week. Decided to include chance of rain for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR at HUL, PQI, and CAR through 01-02z with a break in the rain. Otherwise, mainly IFR/LIFR tonight at all terminals with low cigs and -SHRA. LLWS possible, primarily along the coast. However, not enough confidence to include in 00z TAFs. Conditions will begin to gradually improve through the day on Sunday, becoming MVFR in the north and VFR, potentially SKC, at BGR/BHB through the day on Sunday. IFR conditions could persist all day at FVE through the day with low cigs and VCSH. SE winds 5 to 10 kts will shift SW behind the low passage and increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts. SHORT TERM: Sunday Night-Monday...MVFR north/VFR south. SW wind around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Monday Night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. SW wind 5-10 kts. Thursday...MVFR in rain showers. Possible thunderstorms in the north. SW winds becoming W 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas around 5 ft this afternoon will build to 6 to 11 feet overnight. Southerly winds will continue to gust 25 to 30 kts tonight into the day on Sunday. Visibilities could be reduced in rain and areas of fog tonight. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory continues into Sunday night due to winds and seas. Seas could remain at SCA levels into Monday. Winds and seas will decrease below SCA levels by Monday afternoon and remain for the rest of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Clark Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/Clark/LaFlash