129
FXUS61 KCAR 090110
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will remain across the area through Thursday.
High pressure builds in later Thursday through Friday. Another
low approaches by Saturday, followed by another ridge of high
pressure for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:10 PM Update: Water vapor satellite pictures show a mid level
trough digging into central and southern Quebec. IR and
Geocolor satellite shows a mainly clear sky across the FA with
just a few patches of clouds. Temperatures have been dropping
off quickly this evening and are now in the 30s in most northern
valleys. As the low in Quebec inches closer clouds will
increase later tonight, mainly across the western half of the
FA. It should remain mainly clear in Hancock and Washington
county where there are frost advisories in effect late tonight
for interior Hancock and coastal and central Washington
Counties. Have added in southern Penobscot county to the
frost advisory as some of the colder areas outside of Bangor
are already down into the mid 30s. Frost is unlikely in the more
urban areas. Frost is also likely further to the north, but the
frost/freeze program has already ended for the season for areas
to the north. Only very minor tweaks to account for the current
conditions, but overall the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion:
An upper level low will remain overhead through Wednesday,
providing light winds and additional shower chances. The area is
currently in between shortwaves with mostly clear skies and
light winds expected tonight, especially across northern and
eastern areas. Closer to Bangor and coastal Hancock County,
another incoming shortwave will bring cloud cover after midnight
and overspread the rest of Downeast Maine with shower chances
Wednesday. Based on the timing of the clouds tonight, frost is
most likely across areas north and east of Bangor and Bar Harbor
where skies will remain clear the longest. A Frost Advisory has
been issued for interior Hancock, central Washington, and
coastal Washington, where the frost and freeze program remains
active. Frost is also likely across northern zones, and a few of
the coldest valleys may fall to at or below freezing. Patchy
river valley fog is also likely to form over areas that are
clear. High temperatures will be seasonable on Wednesday,
ranging from the 50s to near 60 across portions of Downeast
Maine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure hangs around the Maine coast, with some upper
level troughing occurring Wednesday night, leading to some
light westerly winds at the surface. Low temps should be in the
low 40s around the coast and mid-to-upper 30s in northern
counties. Skies are expected to remain partially cloudy, and a
brief shower in northern Aroostook and coastal areas may occur
overnight into the morning. If temperatures drop slightly there
is a chance for patches of frosts in Aroostook and Piscataquis
counties. Patchy fog may also develop in river valley areas.

Thursday should see some increased cloud cover, with a
possibility for some lingering showers in the northern region.
Highs will be in the mid-50s along the coast, and upper-40s to
low-50s in the north.

Influence from a high pressure system west of the region should
cause some wind speed increases Thursday night, with inland
areas seeing gusts around 15kts and coastal areas around
20-25kts. Lows will be in the low-to-mid 40s along the coast,
and mid-30s in the north. Patchy fog may develop overnight.

High pressure moves eastward on Friday, continuing to cause
some gusty winds ranging from 20-25kts, and 30kts over mountain
regions. Rain chances stay relatively low during the day, with
highs in the mid-50s up north and and low-60s on the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure stays in the northeast until Sunday morning, as a
low pressure system moves in. Showers can be expected Friday
night into Saturday, but the timing and strength of rain is
going to depend on how the 500mb trough plays out. There is
currently low confidence in models on the strength of the trough
moving through the area, as some guidance is leaning towards
having more cold air moving in from the north. Monday into
Monday night is also forecast to have some showers,
predominantly in the north.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
There is potential for IFR/LIFR visibility in patchy fog at
some of the lower lying Aroostook County airports such as PQI
and HUL later tonight. Otherwise, VFR is expected with light
winds through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, possibly MVFR/IFR if fog
develops, as conditions are favorable. Rain chances at northern
Aroostook county airports. Winds are west/northwest at 5kts.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Potential on MVFR/IFR
depending on fog conditions and low level clouds. Winds pick up
speed, at west/northwest around 10kts, gusting to 15-20kts
possible.

Friday...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR possible in the morning if fog or
low clouds develop. Winds will be northwest at 10kts, gusting to
around 20kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Long period swell from the southeast will continue to
dissipate over the next 24 hours. Waves will also subside to 1
to 3 feet with winds to around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
expected Wednesday morning. A stray thunderstorm is also
possible and may be capable of producing briefly higher wind
gusts and seas.

SHORT TERM: Wave heights are expected to stay at or below 5ft
during this period. Winds from the west/northwest around 8kts,
and strengthen to around 15kts on Friday. Gusts ranging from
20-25kts are possible during the day into Saturday. Sunday,
winds should calm down, back to westerly flow around 10kts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
MEZ015-016-017-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/MStrauser
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...CB/MStrauser/Brennan
Marine...CB/MStrauser/Brennan