696 FXUS61 KCAR 121343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will cross the region Friday. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will cross on Sunday, followed by high pressure on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:43AM UPDATE...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast. Mesoanalysis shows increasing surface based instability as low level lapse rates improve from the AM inversion being mixed out. Quickly with some daytime heating we are seeing convection get underway with low convective temperatures today. So far just isolated showers across the Central Highlands into Northern Maine. Somewhat open shortwave energy is pivoting SE from Quebec and the primary kicker for convection. As daytime heating increases expecting scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms to develop. Much of this activity will be confined from the Route 9 corridor northward with the best chance of a shower in Northern Maine. Will continue to monitor trends on convection over the next few hours. previous forecast A cold front will cross the region this morning. An upper level disturbance approaching from Quebec province will then cross the region this afternoon. Expect mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies across the region today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, mainly from the Katahdin region north. A tightening surface pressure gradient and a rather deep mixed layer will result in a gusty West to Northwest wind across the region today, with some gusts up to 35 mph possible at times. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees across the north and mid to upper 70s for the Bangor region and downeast areas. Northwest flow continues tonight as high pressure to our northwest builds toward the region. Expect partly cloudy skies tonight. Lows will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the north and mid 40s to around 50 for the Bangor region and Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday... Crisp, pleasant day Friday. Highs ranging from the low 60s north to upper 60s Downeast. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some fair weather cumulus. Dry air with dewpoints in the 30s. NW breeze 10-15 mph. Friday Night and Saturday... Two concerns for this period: how far north rain makes it into the area (if at all), and how cool it gets in the north Friday night. Skies are looking mostly clear at least for far northern Maine. With very light winds and a cool airmass already in place, decent radiational cooling could occur. Went on the cool side of guidance in the north, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s in the north. Can`t rule out localized light frost in some of the coolest spots. Regarding the rain, models/ensembles have generally trended south/drier on a system moving from west to east through the region, and have trended forecast in this direction as well. Going for just a 30-40 percent chance of light rain from Bangor south to the coast, with the best chances being from about 6am to noon Saturday. There`s still some model disagreement though, with some solutions keeping rain easily south of the area, and on the other extreme, a few bringing rain as far north as central portions of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday depend on how far north the clouds and potential rain make it, but generally looking for highs in the 60s. Saturday Night... Probably dry and cool, but not quite as cool as Friday night. Lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Westerly, low amplitude flow over the region from Sunday to midweek. For Sunday, can`t totally rule out a few showers, but overall looking like a decent day with partly to mostly cloudy skies in and highs in the 60s. Then looking for a gradual warming trend with temperatures probably above normal by midweek, with dewpoints and thunderstorm chances gradually on the rise as well toward midweek. Difficult to time individual systems this far out, but pretty high confidence in the warmer, muggier pattern mid to late in the week with better shower/thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR is expected at all the terminals today. Scattered showers are expected. An afternoon thunderstorm could affect the northern terminals this afternoon. But confidence in timing and placement is low, thus no mention in the TAF package. VFR all terminals tonight. Wind becoming W to NW with gusts up to 35 kt possible this afternoon. NW wind 10 to 15 kt tonight. SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR with NW wind 10 kts. Friday Night...Mainly VFR with light wind. Can`t totally rule out patchy valley fog late in the night. Saturday: VFR for northern terminals. MVFR/IFR possible (around a 30 percent chance) at BGR and BHB with rain, with VFR more likely (70 percent chance). Light south winds. Saturday Night and Sunday: Generally VFR with light and variable winds. Monday: VFR. S-SW winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through tonight, although there could be a few gusts to 25 kt across the outer waters. SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft through early in the week, with minimal fog over the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD/Sinko Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Foisy Marine...TWD/Sinko/Foisy