532
FXUS61 KGYX 011611
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
While a few showers will be possible in the mountains on
Sunday, it will mostly be cool and breezy with wind gusts
25-30 mph. Some showers linger into Monday, but afterward we
start to dry out with a significant warm up heading toward the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12pm Update...Cumulus has developed amid a thin moist layer off
the surface. This layer is flanked by dry air above and below,
and webcams/satellite show clouds are cellular but flat.
Embedded shortwave to the west is producing some isolated to
scattered showers, and have gone ahead and included mention of
some light rain showers or sprinkles for remainder of the day
across western NH and eventually much of interior ME mid
afternoon. Wind forecast remains on track as do temperatures.

940am Update...Light showers continue into the Kennebec Valley
and central Maine at this hour, with a trending decrease in
reflectivity over the past hour. Based on current temp trends,
did lower daytime highs a bit. While the cloud deck has thinned
favoring cu across southern areas, mixing of cooler air aloft
should limit temps today. To the west, have noted isolated
shower development. Profiles aloft are drying, with well mixed
surface conditions. Moist layer between would be the source of
our cu field and any sprinkles through the afternoon. Will watch
these trends and update as needed later this morning.

620 AM Update...Mainly refreshed PoPs with this update as
light showers have blossomed again across southern New Hampshire
and western Maine as shortwaves continue to pivot through the
broader trough.

435 AM Update...Updated the forecast to include a High Surf
Advisory for the Maine coastline as long period swell with waves
5-7ft will create dangerous surf conditions and an elevated rip
risk today.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant impacts expected

There are still some light scattered showers out there at this
hour, but they are quickly decreasing in coverage and expected
to be dissipated shortly after sunrise. South of the mountains
we will see clouds begin to clear from south to north as
vertically stacked low pressure continues to pull away to the
northeast. Clouds and even some light showers will stay banked
up to the terrain today as a trough stays overhead. A tightening
pressure gradient and good mixing will keep gusty winds in the
forecast today with soundings supporting 25-30 mph gusts. High
temperatures will climb into the 60s south of the mountains
where we will see more sun. To the north where it will be
cloudier high temperatures will be limited to the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant impacts expected

Tonight: Tonight starts clear and dry south of the mountains,
which would provide a good viewing window of the aurora if it
makes an appearance. SWPC is currently forecasting G3 to G4
geomagnetic activity in the 8PM-2AM time frame, so it is a
possibility. North of the mountains will be out of luck as
continued northwesterly flow keeps clouds and light showers
banked up against the terrain. After about 2AM is when clouds
and light showers look to begin to sink southward as an upper
trough swings through the area. The initially clear skies and
dying wind gusts will allow temperatures to fall in to the 40s,
with temperatures in the higher terrain in the 30s to the
highest peaks getting below freezing, meaning Mt. Washington may
get some snow flakes.

Monday: Any lingering showers and clouds in the eastern part of
the CWA exit in the morning as drier air begins to move in on
westerly flow. This will begin our warming trend as high
temperatures south of the mountains climb into the upper 60s and
low 70s. The immediate coast likely stays a bit cooler with a
seabreeze. North of the mountains sees highs more in the low to
mid 60s. Daytime heating and a shortwave trough likely
contribute to an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon,
with skies clearing again heading toward the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long Term Update...01z NBM has been blended in to the latest
going long term forecast. This results in little change with a
significant warm-up still expected mid to late week.

Previously...

Overview: Upper level low set to remain influencing the region
through Monday night as sharpening trough finally pushes off to the
east. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night with daytime temperatures increasing into the 80s by
midweek. Next system to bring the chance of rain will be later this
week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches and settles over
the forecast area.

Details: The introduction of anticyclonic flow and drier air
aloft Monday night will promote dry conditions overnight into Tuesday,
continuing Wednesday.

With rain out of the picture early to midweek, attention turns
towards temperatures. From daytime highs in the 50s and 60s this
weekend, a quick warm up is expected with highs in the 80s forecast
Wednesday. Tuesday, behind the exiting trough and ahead of upper
moisture, is forecast to be the sunnier of the two.

Late week remains warm as slowing cold front passes through the
Great Lakes. Still a lot of continuity and coverage uncertainty for
rain chances late week. Overall expectation is for this boundary to
continue eastward slowly, acting as forcing for showers and periods
of rain Thursday into the weekend. With surface high planted off the
Southeast coast, flow will align to bring moisture towards the
region as well as occasional waves of low pressure. Will continue to
monitor rain chances into next weekend, but the current pattern of a
rainy Saturday is certainly possible again.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR the prevailing condition for today. HIE may go
back to MVFR for a time overnight as showers move through the
mountains, but otherwise ceilings should stay up through the day
Monday. Today still looks gusty at all terminals today with
20-25 kts possible, increasing through the day.

Long Term...VFR ceilings and vis for much of early to mid week.
Winds will largely be diurnally driven. Can`t rule out some
overnight valley fog for terminals near the CT Valley and
western ME mountains through this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty southwesterly winds 25-30 kts will continue
through the day today as low pressure pulls away and they taper
off tonight. Seas will slowly calm as well with 5+ ft seas
sticking around until at least Monday morning

Long Term...Upper trough will sharpen early this week as high
pressure builds to the south. This will result in mainly
southerly onshore winds through early week. By late week, front
will be slowly approaching the region but may not pass through
the waters until Friday/Saturday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
     153-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Baron/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Ekster