736 FXUS61 KCAR 130256 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1056 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the region overnight. High pressure will drift over the state on Friday. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. High pressure will build into Quebec on Saturday, then move east of the area on Sunday. Low pressure will track north of the area Monday into midweek next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Update... Upper level troffing persists across the region overnight, while surface high pressure builds toward Maine. Showers have now mostly dissipated across northern areas. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across northern areas overnight with mostly clear skies Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s north, to the upper 40s to around 50 Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... Tomorrow the flow flattens from the WNW as surface high pressure slides overhead. Expecting a mostly sunny day with the boundary layer drying out and becoming decently mixed. Expecting NW winds gusting 10-20mph at times. Temperatures in the low 60s across the north, mid to upper 60s for the Central Highlands to Downeast Coast with a few 70F readings possible Downeast which is favorable when its a downwind of the Longfellow Mtns. Afternoon relative humidities fall back into the 35-40 percent range. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday night will feature high pressure building in over Quebec. At the same time, a weak wave of low pressure will pass south of Maine. There continues to be model disagreement on the on the track of the low, and how far north rain makes it. The NAM and RAP models show rain reaching the Katahdin region, and amounts up to 0.50 inches near Bangor and Downeast. All other guidance is much further south, with showers mostly confined to the coast. Leaned on NBM for PoPs, which was closer to the majority of guidance. Slight chance to low chance PoPs from Moosehead Lake to Downeast, and remaining dry north and east of there. Further north, expecting more clearing and nearly calm winds thanks to the aforementioned high. Still uncertainty as to if skies will completely clear, or if there will be some high clouds from the low. If skies do clear, conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling. The best chance of clearing will be in the Crown of Maine, closer to the high. Currently forecasting lows in the 30s for most areas north of Katahdin, and 40s to the south Friday night. Some frost could form in the normally colder valley locations, especially in the North Woods. Not enough confidence for any frost headlines at this time. On Saturday, any showers will exit Downeast in the afternoon. Could see some clearing for Bangor and Downeast in the afternoon on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies north of Katahdin as high pressure remains in control. High temperatures will be in the 60s for most of the area. Saturday night will be cool, but not as cool as Friday night. Lows will be in the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the coldest spots of the North Woods. High pressure begins to retreat eastward on Sunday, resulting in light southerly flow and warm air advection. Enough ridging will still be in place for the day to remain dry. Expect highs to reach the lower 70s in lower elevations north of Bangor. Onshore flow will keep Bangor and Downeast in the 60s. Perhaps some 50s at the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A more unsettled pattern will take hold during the long-term period, as waves of low pressure track north of the area. This will result in shower chances, and possibly a few thunderstorms in the afternoons by midweek. Confidence in timing individual waves is low, so mainly chance PoPs Monday through Thursday. Temperatures and dew points will be higher in the long-term period compared to the short- term. However, not expecting any major heat over the next seven days. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR regionwide overnight through Friday. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots overnight. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, decreasing to around 10 knots Friday. West/southwest winds around 10 knots along the Downeast coast Friday afternoon. Northwesterly low level wind shear across northern areas through early morning. SHORT TERM: Friday Night...Mainly VFR with light wind. Some MVFR/IFR possible BGR and Downeast with VCSH. BCFG possible at some terminals late, but low confidence. Winds light and variable. Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible at BGR and Downeast with VCSH. Otherwise VFR. Winds light and variable. Saturday Night and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Winds light and variable Saturday night, becoming SW 5-10 kts Sunday. Sunday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible with VCSH. Isolated TS possible Tuesday PM. S-SW winds 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight through Friday. Sea surface water temperatures are generally 45-47F from the Washington County coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay. Water temps 47-50F from the Hancock County coast out 25nm including Penobscot Bay. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through this weekend and into early next week. Wave heights 1 to 2 feet this weekend, building to 2 to 4 feet early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Sinko Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...Norcross/Clark Marine...Norcross/Sinko/Clark