753 FXUS61 KGYX 101430 CCA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1030 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions become unsettled today with fog and drizzle this morning followed by widespread showers and isolated storms. Dry conditions return this evening and overnight, and then improving conditions are expected for the second half of the week, with perhaps yet another unsettled Saturday in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM Update...Dreary conditions with low overcast, drizzle, and fog across much of the area at this time. There are also a couple of showers here and there, but latest radar imagery shows the higher coverage of showers now moving into New Hampshire. Still looking at the possibility of a few storms going into this afternoon as lapse rates aloft steepen and yield a couple hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE. Additional showers/storms are then possible along the cold front itself in the 7 to 9PM timeframe, mainly along the CT River Valley. Previous discussions/updates... 7 AM Update...Very little change oth going forecast as 4 AM...A warm front will continue to sharpen up well to our south with overunning moisture continuing to bring clouds, showers, and drizzle to our area. Knocked off at least 3-5 F from earlier forecast highs. 1045 PM Update... Minor changes to align with observations. Isolated showers continue to stream into the area with patchy drizzle expanding in coverage as well. 630 PM Update...Just minor changes to temperature, dewpoint, and sky to align with observations. Forecast remains in good shape with onshore flow contributing to moisture advection ahead of the approaching warm front. Low clouds and some drizzle are working into southern New Hampshire at this hour and these are continue to be expected to advance north and eastward overnight. Some broken lines of light showers are also forming ahead of the main frontal boundary and moving across the north and up to the Connecticut River Valley. Not much guidance is latching on to these, but current PoPs are advertising them well. Previous Discussion... Aside from a few light showers or sprinkles, mostly dry conditions are expected for the rest of today with temperatures falling into the 50s to low 60s by sunset. Downslope winds north of the White may gusts 25-35 mph, but these should ease toward sunset. Going into this evening and tonight, the low levels will saturate with skies becoming cloudy with fog possible. There will also be a chance of showers, but I think there will be more drizzle than showers based on forecast soundings. Temperatures will generally stay in the 50s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Cold front moves across the forecast area this evening with winds turning westerly and allow fair weather to return tonight and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Evening update...No significant changes with the latest long range NBM incorporated. The pattern continues to favor unsettled weather next week with uncertainty in the global models on whether or not we will continue a streak of rainy weekends. Previous Discussion... Overview: The region will be between weather systems come Wednesday. Dry but warmer conditions are forecast ahead of advancing upper low across the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada. As this system tracks east, shower chances increase mainly across the mountains Wed evening and Thursday. Follow-up high pressure into late week and the weekend will play a big role in precipitation chances. Details: Midweek begins quiet but warm as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to around 80. While the surface and aloft remains dry in model profiles, a moist layer in between will be enough to generate at least some diurnal clouds. These may be thicker towards the foothills and mountains with some low moisture getting locked upstream. Have kept shower chances here for the afternoon and the evening as a pre-frontal trough advances eastward. Thursday, upper low passes to the north with surface low bringing a cold front across the forecast area. This again looks to bring showers to the mountains, with limited extension into the interior and coast. This front and incoming high pressure will both play a role in precip chances late week into the weekend. High pressure will be passing north of the Great Lakes Friday, with cold front settling south of the forecast area. Global ensembles and deterministic runs depict weak disturbances with precip passing along the slowing front, with northern high suppressing the activity south. Recent data suggests this activity nudging northward, potentially bringing another round of showers to at least the southern half of the forecast area Friday into Saturday. While initial guidance suggests spotty, non-uniform QPF...the orientation of the slowing front and systems traveling along the boundary becomes a focal point for forcing. Will need to monitor its positioning and persistence for possible greater amounts. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low conditions continue today and tonight followed by VFR conditions in the wake of a cold front on Wed. These conditions last through at least Thursday. && .MARINE... Short term...Showers and fog will precede a cold front over the waters into the early part of tonight, but then fog should gradually diminish over the waters overnight with drier air and west to southwest winds behind the boundary. Winds stay south to southwest Wednesday while remaining below SCA levels into the afternoon, but may increase to SCA levels Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as another front approaches. Long term...A cold front will approach early Thursday, bringing gusty SW winds over the waters. A SCA may be needed as gusts rise to around 25 kts and seas build to around 5 ft on the eastern coastal waters. This front drapes across southern New England into late week as high pressure tries to move into the region for the weekend. There is some uncertainty how far south the front advances, which could bring unsettled weather for a portion of the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ MORNING UPDATE...Combs NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Cornwell