589 FXUS61 KGYX 090354 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1154 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A break in the unsettled weather continues into Monday as high pressure briefly builds in. Conditions then become unsettled with widespread showers Tuesday with fog and drizzle also possible Monday night into the first part of Tuesday. Improving conditions are then expected for the second half of the week, with perhaps yet another unsettled Saturday in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Previous discussion... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant impacts expected Conditions remain dry through the evening as high pressure remains in control. A shortwave approaches tonight with increasing moisture as upper level flow turns southwesterly. With this being the case, skies look to end up partly cloudy overnight with valley fog possibly developing again overnight. With weak onshore flow, fog advecting onto the coastal plain looks likely as well. Dewpoints are a bit lower tonight and temperatures will get more time to cool before it gets too cloudy, so lows look to be more in the low 50s along the coast and valleys that fog in. North of the mountains and inland areas that stay clearer stand the best chance of dropping into the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant impacts expected A wave of low pressure will begin to push high pressure out on Monday. This change in flow will also push out any remaining haze left over the area. Increasing moisture could contribute to low stratus/fog and patchy drizzle across southern and coastal areas hanging around during the day. This would make for a little bit of a cooler day with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Even north of the mountains and through the foothills where it is expected to be clearer, poor mixing would keep high temperatures in the low 70s. Moisture continues to increase and push northward Monday night along with a warm front approaching the area. This will allow areas of low stratus/fog and patchy drizzle to expand northward, with maybe even a few true showers in spots as clouds overspread the area from the south and forcing increases with the frontal boundary getting closer. All of this will result in low temperatures in the low 50s for areas south of the mountains, with upper 40s to the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moisture steadily increases Tuesday with cloudy skies, a few showers, and fog in the morning. There may also be drizzle at times with forecast soundings showing the moisture depth pretty shallow initially. Showers then become likely through the day as we get increasing lift as low pressure approaches and crosses through the area. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may be sufficient for a few non-severe storms as well. Models have come into better agreement on timing with most of the rain during the day and then tapering off during the evening hours. PWATS climbing to near 1.50" will support heavy downpours, but with the progressive nature, not anticipating any hydro issues as ensembles continue to advertise less than 10% probabilities for over an inch of rain. Flow behind the system looks pretty weak Tuesday night, so we`ll probably see fog redevelop. Highs Tuesday will be limited to the 60s with clouds and showers, and expected lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but broad troughing aloft over the Northeast US will allow for a few weak waves/fronts to cross through. These could each bring low-end shower chances, but nothing significant or widespread is expected. Looking toward next weekend...a frontal boundary may stall near or just south of the area while models are latching onto an upper-level wave riding along the boundary to generating some showers. At the same time, there is a decent signal for high pressure to attempt build in from the north, which could end up suppressing the front/upper wave to the south. However, this is not a done deal as there are still ensemble members that bring rain showers farther north into the area. Still, it looks like the better potential for drier weather will be farther to the north and east while southern areas have the higher chances of showers (30-40%) for next weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Hazy skies will continue into the evening, but it hasn`t been leading to any visibility restrictions so it is left out of the TAFs for the most part. Mainly VFR tonight with a possibility for valley fog to develop as well as easterly winds advecting fog onto the coastal plain. This fog may be slow to clear with low ceilings hanging on Monday along the coast, but elsewhere fog will clear around 13z and end up VFR. Ceilings will begin to lower for everyone Monday night as another system approaches the region. Long Term...IFR to LIFR restrictions are likely to start out Tuesday morning due to low stratus, fog, and possibly drizzle at times. Restrictions continue to be likely the rest of the day night with showers for much of the area and maybe a couple of storms. Precipitation tapers off Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but conditions then favor more fog development which could cause additional restrictions. Mainly VFR Wednesday through Friday, but there still could be additional low chances for showers. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Monday. Areas of dense fog are possible tonight through Monday, with patchy drizzle possible as well on Monday as a system approaches the region. Long Term...SCA conditions are not currently expected over the next week. Weak low pressure and front cross the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing fog and a chance of showers. Southwest flow sets up mid to late week with a few additional weak systems crossing the waters. High pressure may build in from the north over the weekend, but a front may also stall out near or just south of the waters going into the weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather radio transmitters remain off the air due to a phone line issue. We hope to have them back in service Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM EDT Monday for NHZ001>015. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Combs