992 FXUS61 KCAR 110136 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 936 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure persists tonight. Low pressure will slowly lift north toward the region Saturday through Sunday, then exit across the Maritimes Monday. Another low pressure system approaches Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:36PM Update...Minor tweaks continue for temps/dews and sky based on observations. Skies are turning partly to mostly cloudy over the next 1-3hrs across the CWA from SW to NE. No other changes. Previous Discussion... High pressure remains in place with mostly clear skies this evening before high clouds associated with an approaching low pressure system move in to the area. Late tonight, a trough extending north from the center of the low will work into southern and central Maine. Some light snow showers are possible early tomorrow morning in the Central Highlands and Bangor regions. By late morning any light precipitation will likely progress into the Downeast area and turn to rain showers. Put slight chance of rain showers in the forecast, thinking coverage will be lower than some of the models are suggesting due to sinking motion and lingering dry air associated with the high pressure to our east that will be slow to move out of the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level low will be located over the Mid-Atlantic by Friday night. Precipitation with this system will remain south of the region Friday night thanks to upper-level ridging. However, enough clouds will filter in to prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s area-wide. Forecast confidence decreases later Saturday through Saturday night and Sunday. The upper-low will close off and a weak surface low will track northeastward offshore. Models vary greatly in how they handle this evolution. The 12z GFS, and to a lesser extent the 12z NAM, bring moisture into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Particularly on the GFS, there would be enough cold air for a period of wet snow inland. However, other models have precipitation dissipate before it gets to the area. A majority of ensemble members favor the latter solution. Thus, kept PoPs limited, with only the Downeast coast getting to likely PoPs. As for p-type, had a mix of rain and snow showers at night, with mostly rain showers during the daytime hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aforementioned upper-level low will pull away from the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is uncertainty with this part of the forecast as well. The 12z GFS and ECMWF AIFS models show a period of accumulating snow for at least part of the area. Other guidance is dry save for a few rain/snow showers. Given the uncertainty, leaned on the NBM, which gave mainly chance PoPs. Upper-level ridging builds in for Monday and Monday night, providing for dry conditions. A low pressure system is expected to track into Quebec Tuesday, then redevelop near the Downeast coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, p-type with this system is forecast to be mainly rain. That said, rain could mix with or even change to wet snow in the Crown of Maine for Tuesday night. Capped PoPs at likely given some timing uncertainties. Dry weather returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonable through the long-term period. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions tonight with southwesterly winds decreasing and becoming variable overnight. VFR conditions tomorrow, as winds become southerly around 5 kts. Ceilings are forecast to begin to drop to low end VFR during the day. KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions tonight with south/southwesterly winds decreasing and becoming variable overnight. VFR/MVFR conditions tomorrow, as ceilings drop and showers move in. KBGR could see a brief period of snow in the morning, before turning over to all rain showers. KBHB will only see rain showers. Showers move out by the afternoon and ceilings start to rise back up to VFR conditions. Winds south/southeasterly at around 5 kts. SHORT TERM: Friday night...VFR/MVFR with ocnl low cigs. Light E-SE wind. Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, trending to IFR late with -SHRA. Light E-NE wind. Saturday night...IFR or lower with -SHRASN. NE winds 5-10 kts. Sunday...Mainly IFR with -SHRA. N-NE winds 5-15 kts. Sunday night...IFR/LIFR early with -SHRASN, trending to MVFR/IFR late. N winds 5-10 kts. Monday...MVFR/IFR possible early with -SHRASN. Then VFR. N winds 5 to 10kts. Monday Night...VFR. Winds light and variable. Tuesday...VFR early, trending to MVFR/IFR with low cigs and -SHRA. S winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight and Friday. Winds decrease tonight to 5 to 10 kts by morning and become easterly by the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday night. Winds and seas build to or just above SCA levels later Saturday into Sunday and Sunday night. Conditions subside below SCA criteria on Monday and remain there through midweek. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Melanson/Sinko Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...Melanson/Sinko/Clark Marine...Melanson/Sinko/Clark