791
FXUS61 KCAR 220945
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
545 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 6 AM Update: Locally dense fog continues for a couple more
  hours. Updates to aviation section below with the 12z TAFs.
  Reduced marine wind gusts for Tuesday slightly after further
  evaluation of marine stability.

- Increased fog coverage for early this morning and again
  tonight. Reduced forecast rain totals in the north with slight
  southern shift in the track of the low pressure system
  tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally dense fog remains through the early morning hours.
Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system will approach today,
tracking along the coast tonight into Tuesday, bringing
moderate to heavy rainfall to the Downeast region.

2) Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with the next
system approaching Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally dense fog remains through the early
morning hours. Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system will
approach today, tracking along the coast tonight into Tuesday,
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to the Downeast region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Current GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel indicates a wide
swath of fog and low stratus currently across Hancock and
Washington counties, and actively advecting across southern
Aroostook county. By sunrise, this area of fog and low stratus
may spread across the majority of the forecast area, before
increased sun angle and the return of diurnal mixing aids in
dissipating this layer.

The next surface low pressure system will approach from the west
through the day today, and is likely to begin moving into our
forecast area overnight tonight. Recent hires guidance has
settled on a low track where the center of the low will move
along the Maine coast through Tuesday morning, exiting into the
Bay of Fundy by Tuesday night. Highest rainfall amounts should
be confined to around the center of this low, and so exact track
will have an impact on how much rainfall our forecast area
receives versus how much falls over the Gulf of Maine. There
will likely be a sharp gradient in rain amounts further inland
and away from the low center. The immediate coast has the
greatest chance at rain totals exceeding 1 inch, potentially
over 1.5 inches of total rain. Bangor and the Interior Downeast
region could see rain amounts exceeding 1 inch, but any wobbles
offshore of the low may result in these amounts being
significantly less. By the northern half of the forecast area,
most rainfall through this time period will likely be due to
showers and storms north of and ahead of this low pressure
system, not directly tied to the coastal low.

At this time there does not appear to be a significant flash
flood threat with FFG in this region being over 2 inches in one
hour, however there remains the risk across Downeast Maine and
the Bangor Region for the minor flooding of known poor drainage
areas and other flood prone locations with the heaviest rainfall
from late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with
the next system approaching Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As an upper level low near the Great Lakes Wednesday makes its
way into the region by Friday, there will be showers, and the
possibility of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Modest CAPE and mid level lapse rates could support some pop-up
thunderstorms, mainly in the north, though a lack of shear
should limit thunderstorm strength. The upper level low enters
the region Friday morning bringing more widespread rain showers,
though track and timing are uncertain. The Euro and GFS are in
general agreement with the surface low passing just to the
north, while the Canadian is much more disorganized. Current
precip estimates are around 0.5 inches, with up to 1 in in some
places in heavier showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through the early morning...VFR conditions may continue to trend
towards IFR/LIFR in fog. Downeast terminals remain LIFR in fog
at this time, while low stratus and fog advects northwards
through Aroostook terminals. All northern fog to dissipate over
the next 1 to 3 hours, and Downeast fog will mostly dissipate in
this time as well, though coastal fog and Washington county
could hang onto lower vis for a little longer this morning.

Today...Conditions will improve to VFR across all terminals.
Afternoon showers and storms, mostly across the north, could
lead to brief MVFR cigs. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 15 to 20
kts at KBGR and coastal terminals.

Tonight...Cigs may rapidly fall back to IFR/LIFR in fog and low
stratus. Moderate rainfall at coastal terminals could limit
visibility due to rain, while further north vis would be limited
by another round of fog. Winds shifting SE at 5 to 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts possible at KBGR and coastal terminals.

Tuesday - Tuesday night: MVFR or lower likely, with the best
chance for IFR or lower early Tuesday morning and again late
Tuesday night. Some fog is possible at all terminals Tuesday
night. A chance of thunderstorms at KFVE in the afternoon. E/SE
winds 5-10G15-20KT, shifting to NW 5-10KT.

Wednesday - Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL in the afternoon with showers and chance of
thunderstorms. NW winds at 5 to 10 kt, gusts to 20 kt. Become light and
variable overnight.

Thursday: Possible MVFR at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR, in the
afternoon with showers and chance of thunderstorms. S/SE winds
at 5 - 10 kt, becoming light overnight.

Friday: MVFR in scattered rain showers and possible
thunderstorms. S winds around 10 kt, gusts to 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds remain below 25 kts and seas below 5 ft through the day
today. Fog may limit visibility through the day today. Winds
will increase late tonight as a storm system begins to cross the
waters, and approach 25 kts across our intracoastal waters and
coastal waters out to 25 NM, with the outer waters seeing gusts
approaching 30 kts. Seas may begin to climb towards 5 ft late
tonight.

Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters early Tuesday,
then below SCA criteria on all waters through Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM