289 FXUS64 KLCH 110505 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary. - A surge of deeper more tropical like moisture will move around the wave and into eastern portions of forecast area proving a risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. - The subtropical ridge from the east will build in at the end of the week to provide typical summertime weather. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Water vapor imagery shows a surge of dry air on the eastern side of the mid-level trough, which is now centered over the Houston area. This dry air helped keep convective activity low for most of the day. But starting on Monday, we will see more rain and thunderstorms across the region as a surge of tropical moisture moves in. This surge in moisture can also be seen on GOES WV imagery and is currently in the northern Gulf, south of Florida. The impacts from these two systems will combine and create the generally unstable pattern and will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region with PoPs between 60 and 80% through the middle of the week. This upper-level trough is fairly robust with winds aloft, at 250 mb, are almost at 50 knots overhead with a clearly defined center on UA maps. As for weather hazards, two should be highlighted. The first is the potential for flash flooding and the second is a setup for damaging downbursts. For the flash flood threat, PWAT values will quickly rise above 2 inches, putting our PWATs into the 90th percentile for this time of year. While heavy rain will be possible everywhere, the main threat area for potential flash flooding remains lower Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Tuesday and Wednesday. With multiple rounds of rain possible rainfall totals will be around 1 to 3 inches area wide with locally higher amounts. The second concern is the possibility of downbursts, especially on Monday, with CAM soundings indicating a robust signal for downdrafts with DCAPE values up to 1200 and ML CAPE averaging between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. For the first half of the week, temperatures will be in line with typical summertime temperatures, with highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 The surge of tropical moisture will start to ease up on Thursday as a subtropical ridge begins to build back into the region, leading to less widespread rain and more afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms. In addition, we will see temperatures rise a few degrees, with highs getting back into the upper 90s. During the night conditions will be muggy with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the night. Patchy fog may form in the early morning hours but is expected to be light. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be a concern tomorrow afternoon and evening across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 An unsettled weather pattern will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters through mid-week. Winds and waves will remain light, with winds less than 10 knots and waves between 1 and 3 feet. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A wet pattern will continue for the first half of the week, with widespread rain expected across the coast but also possible farther inland. Minimum RH values will stay above 50% through the start of the week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Winds will be light and variable, around 5 to 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 73 91 / 20 60 20 60 LCH 76 91 76 91 / 40 70 30 60 LFT 75 90 75 90 / 30 70 30 70 BPT 76 92 75 92 / 30 60 20 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14