208 FXUS64 KLIX 251540 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1040 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Updated CWF to add Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines to open coastal waters for the rest of the daytime hours and this evening. Winds have increased to 15 to 20 knots, especially over the western waters, probably associated with the weak disturbance over the northwestern Gulf. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 An active convective pattern will persist through the first part of the weekend as a weak area of low pressure continues to move westward through the northwestern Gulf and a plume of deep tropical moisture remains in place across the area. Only isolated to widely scattered showers currently remain mainly over the nearshore coastal waters. We should continue to see a relative lull in convective activity for at least the next few hours before showers and storms begin to refire toward daybreak. Expect convection to begin firing in coastal areas first, spreading inland through the late morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate precipitable water values in the 2.1-2.3 inch range across most of the area, which is right around or just above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The ample moisture will once again allow for efficient rainfall, and a few storms could produce localized flooding mainly in low lying and poor drainage areas such as underpasses and other easily flooded roadways. Severe weather doesn`t look likely, but a few stronger storms could still produce frequent lightning and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. With rain and dense cloud cover, expect afternoon highs to top out in the upper 80s most places. Saturday should be much the same as Friday given no substantial change to the airmass and continued ample moisture throughout the column. Will mention that there is some potential for far northwestern areas to briefly reach heat advisory criteria before showers and storms spread far enough inland to cool things off a bit, but any time of heat index at or above 108 degrees should be pretty short- lived and in isolated areas. Thus will hold off on any heat advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Sunday will be a transition day as an upper high begins to build in from the east. Doesn`t look like the high will be quite strong enough on Sunday to completely quelch any convection. So with model forecast soundings indicating 2.0-2.1 inches of precipitable water, daytime heating should still provide sufficient instability to fire off isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the best rain chances across areas near the Atchafalaya, which will be further from the influence of the high. That being said, if the high builds in faster/stronger than currently forecast, POPs may need to be adjusted downward. As convective coverage decreases, temperatures will begin to rise. Unfortunately, there will still be plenty of moisture around, with dewpoints forecast in the mid to upper 70s. This will make for an uncomfortable afternoon, and the current forecast calls for maximum heat index values of 105-110 degrees for areas along and around the the I-10 and I-12 corridors. A heat advisory may be needed for some of these areas. Going into Monday and Tuesday the aforementioned upper high will make its presence known with a vengeance. As the high becomes more centered over the local area, subsidence aloft will effectively suppress convection, allowing afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s. It is certainly within reach for a few places to hit the century mark. And with dewpoints still forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s, it will be downright oppressive in most places. Afternoon heat index values are currently forecast to rise to near 115 degrees across much of the forecast area, which would necessitate extreme heat warnings, if the forecast holds. Compounding the heat risk is the fact that overnight lows Monday into Tuesday will struggle to drop below 80 degrees across southern portions of the area, meaning those without access to reliable air conditioning will struggle to find relief from the heat even overnight. Thankfully the heat dome looks to break down after just a couple days as another weak inverted trough traverses the northern Gulf bringing increased rain chances to the area once again during the second half of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Some low VIS/CIGs this morning respectively. This should continue to improve through the morning hours outside of any convection that develops. Showers and storms will be possible through much of the day today with brief reductions expected from time to time in the strongest showers and storms. Winds are forecast to remain light from a southerly direction. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Main concern to marine operations will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and seas. Storms will be most numerous during the late night through morning hours over the open waters today through Saturday, with the threat over the protected waters mainly during the late morning into early evening hours. Areal coverage of showers and storms should be considerably lower during Sunday through Tuesday before increasing again at midweek next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 73 91 73 / 80 20 80 10 BTR 89 76 90 75 / 90 30 80 10 ASD 89 75 91 74 / 80 30 90 10 MSY 90 79 91 79 / 80 40 90 10 GPT 88 78 89 77 / 80 40 80 10 PQL 88 76 90 75 / 80 50 80 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...RDF MARINE...DM