365 FXUS64 KLCH 020812 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly flow will resume today with increasing hot and humid conditions for the first part of the week. - A weakness aloft by mid week will help increase diurnal showers and thunderstorms as conditions remain hot and humid. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Early morning surface analysis shows weak low pressure near Lake Charles, situated along a stalled boundary that extends both NW and SE from the low. Area radar shows a cluster of convection ongoing across interior SE TX this morning in association with this surface low. This convection is beginning to slowly die out and should largely dissipate before sunrise, as the surface low simultaneously weakens. Today, ridging aloft will build across the MS River Valley, eventually amplifying over the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow into Wednesday. The stalled boundary at the surface will linger across SE TX today, and should slowly become washed out/dissipate by this evening. The presence of this boundary will likely allow for some very isolated afternoon convection today, particularly for SE TX, amid otherwise dry and sunny conditions thanks to ridging aloft. In addition, onshore surface winds become re-estalished today, setting up a steady influx of warm, moist air inland that will continue throughout the work week. Tomorrow, warm and humid conditions are again expected as Gulf moisture continues to be advected inland. Ridging aloft should keep convection in check for the most part tomorrow however, an isolated afternoon shower or two cannot be ruled out. Wednesday, upper ridging becomes situated over the East Coast with a slight weakness developing overhead. With less of a cap in place aloft, daytime heating driven showers should have little to no difficulty forming. Showers will likely begin to develop along and south of I-10 by the mid to late morning hours, expanding in coverage further inland through the afternoon/evening hours. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The long term will bring more typical summertime weather, with a daily chance of showers and storms and temps topping out in the upper 80s to mid-90s each day. Early Thursday, the aforementioned weakness aloft will shift off to our east, with another upper ridging build out of Mexico and across TX in its wake. This ridge should become well established across south TX by Thurs PM, where it will remain and gradually amplify through the later half of the week into the weekend. At the same time, surface high pressure near the Carolinas keeps a persistent onshore flow and fetch of moisture into the region throughout the period. This set up will result in a couple of outcomes. First for SE TX and parts of far SW LA, low end rain chances generally around 10-20% are forecasted, with a decrease in POPs each day for this area as the ridge amplifies to the west. For the remainder of the region, daytime heating/seabreeze driven convection is likely each day through the period, with the best chance of rain generally expected across Acadiana where the influence of the ridge will be felt less. 17 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Mostly VFR conditions anticipated through the period, however an isolated shower will be possible at KBPT tonight and patchy fog will be possible along the I-10 corridor around sunrise. Winds will be light and south to southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A surface high will build across the northern Gulf from off the southeastern US coast early this week and become established for the remainder of the week. This will allow for a light to occasional modest onshore flow over the coastal waters. In addition, there will be a daily chance of mainly scattered showers and a few thunderstorms by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 LCH 89 71 89 74 / 10 0 10 10 LFT 89 70 89 72 / 10 0 20 10 BPT 89 73 89 75 / 10 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...05