412 FXUS64 KSHV 050319 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1019 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 As of 945 PM CDT, temperatures continue to cool from the upper 70s, as skies clear from a round of thunderstorms to our southwest, with minimums expected in the low-to-mid 70s. With weather and observed trend continuing as anticipated, additional forecast and hazard grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a broad longwave trough that extends from the US West Coast through through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. To the south of this large feature exists a ridge of high pressure, centered over Mexico and extending eastward towards the Gulf Coast. A separate ridge of high pressure is then noted along the Eastern Seaboard. Near the surface, a frontal boundary extends from the Great Lakes S/SW through the Midwest and into the Southern Plains. High pressure is noted in its wake and also across the Mid Atlantic and into the Northeast. Recent MRMS radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the Four State Region, especially along and just ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary. This activity may continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, mainly across E TX and possibly SE OK and SW AR (perhaps far NW LA too), with little movement of the frontal boundary anticipated. Given a source of lift/forcing (the front) and a moist and unstable atmosphere characterized by 1000-3000J/kg MLCAPE, there will exist the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms through sunset, with the main threat being wind and possibly hail. Weak mid level lapse rates and meager deep layer shear is likely to prevent a more widespread severe weather event. Outside of the more focused frontal convection, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible elsewhere given the unstable environment present and a few of these storms could briefly pulse near severe thresholds, but expect this activity to largely remain sub-severe. With loss of daytime heating, thunderstorms will weaken this evening and eventually decrease in coverage. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy night with lows in the low 70s. On Thursday, expect very little change in the synoptic pattern, perhaps arguably a slightly better upper level ridge influence. After a quiet, but humid start to the morning, scattered showers are likely to develop by the afternoon hours, mainly near the frontal boundary. Slightly stronger subsidence aloft may prevent as widespread of shower/thunderstorm coverage as compared to Wednesday. Kovacik && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 The long term period will trend active as the pattern slowly begins to change. Beginning with Friday, the mid and upper levels will transition over the region such that the ridge will begin to flatten some as a more quasi-zonal flow sets up over the Central Plains and mid-low MS Valley. How much the ridge flattens and where this transition in flow occurs has the potential to alter the forecast some. But based on current guidance, expect the best chance for rain and thunderstorms to be across far northern zones of SE OK and SW AR. The frontal boundary from the short term will have lifted north as a warm front, providing a main source of focus for convection as disturbances ride thru the quasi-zonal flow. Right now, the far northern reaches of the CWA are outlooked by the SPC for a severe weather risk. On Saturday, the mid and upper level flow becomes oriented more NW, introducing the risk for MCSs. Model guidance has picked up on this potential and provided consistent trends in MCS development, confidence is rather high in this threat. Aside from convective development across the far north yet again, think the daytime hours on Saturday will be mostly dry. By the evening, the development of an upstream MCS appears likely, eventually migrating through the area during the overnight period. This could bring a threat for a damaging wind event, depending on how strong the complex is. It then appears another MCS could affect the local area late Sunday and Sunday night. Northwest flow aloft then continues through early next week/the remainder of this forecast period, which will keep unsettled conditions in place and possibly result in additional MCS threats from the NW. Most of the WPC ensemble cluster solutions support this pattern, lending to rather high confidence in its maintenance. Kovacik && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue this evening, with scattered convection ongoing across portions of Deep E TX near/W of LFK, with isolated convection near/just W of ELD expected to diminish by 02Z Thursday. Have tempoed mention of thunder for these two terminals with brief vsby reductions possible, with a scattered cu field and AC cigs expected to linger through much of the evening before scattering out/shifting E. A weak sfc front extending across ECntrl TX into SE OK from just W of TYR to just E of SLR/PRX/HHW may drift E overnight, with cigs expected to lower to IFR/LIFR with reduced vsbys in patchy FG along the frontal zone after 08Z Thursday, primarily affecting the E TX terminals. Low MVFR/brief IFR cigs will be possible at SHV/TXK around or shortly before daybreak, and at ELD/MLU by mid-morning, before cigs begin to gradually lift by mid to late morning. VFR conditions should return by midday/early afternoon, with cu cigs expected through much of the afternoon. Isolated convection can not be ruled out Thursday afternoon along the old sfc front has it begins to lift N/wash out, but low confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm. Light/Vrb winds tonight will become SSW around 5kts after 15Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 93 75 96 / 10 20 0 0 MLU 74 92 74 95 / 10 20 0 10 DEQ 69 87 69 90 / 40 20 0 20 TXK 73 91 74 94 / 20 20 0 10 ELD 71 91 71 94 / 20 30 0 10 TYR 72 88 73 91 / 20 20 0 0 GGG 72 89 72 92 / 20 20 0 0 LFK 72 92 73 94 / 40 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...15