079 FXUS64 KSHV 011815 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A small area of convection over portions of ECntrl TX has been showing trends of trying to wind down late this morning, as it has encountered slightly drier air and reduced instability given the N-S gradient in isodrosotherms and lower mixing ratios evident bisecting E TX. In fact, the latest few volume scans of the mosaic radar has shown a tendency with the isolated strong storm over Ern Henderson County to take a more Srn track along this gradient, towards the slightly better instability air noted just to its S. The latest sfc and visible satellite analysis reveals an associated outflow bndry that has pushed S along the leading edge of this storm W to Ern Ellis County, although post-bndry winds upstream have already begun to recover/take on a more SErly direction suggesting that the bndry is shallow. This was not before an impressive shelf cloud showing from this storm over Van Zandt County (near Canton) earlier before the storm began to weaken. This lead outflow bndry will likely serve as focus for additional scattered convection as we move through the afternoon, as the air mass ahead of it continues to destabilize in response to increasing theta-e ridging out ahead of it, as well as the approach of weak forcing aloft associated with the weak NW to SE shortwave trough axis noted from the Mid Red River Valley into portions of extreme NE TX to along the AR/LA border. Given the ongoing trends as well as some of the latest 12Z HREF guidance, have increased pops a bit to mid chance through the afternoon across the Wrn sections of E TX, while also extending slight chance pops back farther E into extreme Ern TX/Wrn LA given the current radar and guidance trends. Have also beefed up the sky grids to reflect mostly cloudy wording across much of the region given the extensive elevated cigs developing along/ahead of the convection/trough axis. This in turn, may affect max temps especially over portions of E TX/SW AR, and thus, have lowered the forecast values slightly given the ongoing -RA as well as the cooler 15-16Z temps. Believe that any isolated severe threat will be later this afternoon over the far SW sections of E TX, before shifting to the S by early to mid evening. Zone update already out...grids should already be available. 15 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 For the 01/18Z TAF update, VFR conditions are expected for most of the period except for isolated MVFR across East Texas airspace from 02/10-15Z. Light northerly winds will continue once again. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and evening over portions of Deep East Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 66 89 71 91 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 65 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 62 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 70 88 73 90 / 20 10 0 20 GGG 67 89 71 91 / 10 10 0 10 LFK 70 90 71 91 / 20 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...16