640 FXUS64 KLIX 060543 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1243 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Warm day as expected across the region and by late this afternoon we did have convection with the bulk of it focused across near coastal MS. Most storms dissipated by sunset and the one or two storms that were still around by 3z were right along the SELA coast. Today and tomorrow should see more convection than we have the last 2 days. My lvl setup is transitioning to two ridges once again with the western ridge centered just south of the 4 corners already starting to build. The other ridge is east of the Bahamas while both Chantal and an mid/upper lvl low much like a TUTT low is centered over the northeastern Gulf. This TUTT will slide west over the next few days and will increase the rain chances over the area. There are some interesting details for today. We had been mentioning deeper moisture moving back in but it appears both from models and GOES19 TPW product that drier continental air will actually recycle back into the area from the northeast and east. This will have 2 impacts. First it will likely keep much of the area east of I-55 on the drier side today. That said the mid lvl dry air infiltrating should lead to slightly better lapse rates and impressive DCAPE values. In fact many of the CAMS are suggesting DCAPE values of 1200-1400 j/kg (some even greater than 1400) before convection begins to fire. Obviously CAPE is not an issue with SBCAPE expected over 3k. That said the lack of stronger mid lvl flow or deep layer shear should hinder things somewhat however given the cooling temps in the mid lvls thanks to the approaching TUTT, the mid lvl dry air working in from the east, and sufficient moisture across the western half of the CWA storms will likely develop and a few will be capable becoming strong to severe. The main concern will be damaging downbursts but can`t rule out some hail given the cooler mid lvl temps (H5 temps around -8 maybe even -9C). Area with the greatest risk should be the River parishes including EBR and just to the east up to possibly I-55. Convection will quickly start to wane over the land areas around sunset and we lose the daytime heating but convection will begin to transition more towards the marine areas. There will likely be a period of minimal activity between 1/2z and 8/9z but given the TUTT moving across the region convection likely begin to fire up quickly over the coastal waters. The question becomes how fast does that transition back to the land on Monday. Given that there is still not deep southerly flow in the LL convection likely struggles to work inland initially but with the low more on top of the area convection will probably begin to fire over the area a little earlier on Monday than Tuesday. This will lead to slightly lower instability. There may be more storms around Monday but the risk for strong to severe storms should be slightly lower. As for rainfall, storms today should be a little more efficient than Monday. PWs looks to be on the lower end Monday with most of the CWA around 1.5-1.8 which is not anything out of the ordinary and the more efficient rain looks to be later in the week. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Medium range models continue to advertise a slightly more active pattern setting and high daily rain chance through the week. Overall the consistency in the medium range guidance, continuity between the models, and basically a slight lean towards persistence given what we have seen this Summer suggest no real deviations from the NBM. The driest and probably warmest day of the extended portion of the forecast this package may be Tuesday. Our upper low will be much weaker as it continues to slide west into TX but the bigger influence will likely be the Atlantic ridge nosing west in the Lower MS Valley. The increase in hghts, suppression, and mid lvl temps should hurt convective potential some but this will change for the reminder of the work week. As fast as the ridge noses in Tuesday it erodes and gets suppressed just as fast heading into Wednesday. Two things, the western ridge over the 4 corners amplifies and in response we get a trough to dig across the mid and lower MS Valley. The trough quickly erodes the western portions of the Atlantic ridge and we then move under that trough across through the rest of the week. The other things this trough is going to do is pull up rich gulf moisture and PWs begin to climb back over 2" for the 2nd half of the work week. We will also see deeper southwesterly flow in the LL across the northern Gulf and into SELA. This should allow seabreeze convection to develop a little earlier probably by late morning and start to move inland. The deeper moisture, favorable upper lvl outflow regime, and rather weak steering current will lead to efficient storms so locally heavy rain will need to be monitored especially if it falls over flood prone areas. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected overnight at most terminals. Convection will be somewhat more widespread during the afternoon hours into early evening. Will carry PROB30 for now, but will consider TEMPO for the 12z package if confidence increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Still fairly quiet over the coastal waters with generally benign conditions outside of convection. Winds will remain a little more chaotic and very light until about Monday night when high pressure finally become a little more established over the eastern Gulf. High pressure then just slightly builds to the west a little through the week leading to onshore flow finally setting back up Tuesday and through the work week. On the other hand convection will likely begin to increase in coverage over the next 5 to 6 days, especially over night and through the early to mid morning hours. Waterspout potential looks like it may increase late in the week as much deeper moisture begins to move north through the Gulf. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 94 71 92 71 / 40 30 60 10 BTR 94 73 93 74 / 60 40 70 10 ASD 93 72 93 73 / 40 20 60 10 MSY 94 77 93 77 / 40 20 70 10 GPT 92 75 91 75 / 30 10 50 10 PQL 93 72 92 73 / 20 10 40 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RW MARINE...CAB