419
FXUS64 KLIX 271823
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
123 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Upper ridge centered near the Alabama-Georgia border at midday,
with the surface high centered near Birmingham. Some scattered to
broken cumulus clouds noted on satellite, and some rather isolated
and brief showers or a thunderstorm wouldn`t be a total shock on
lake or sea breeze boundaries in the next couple hours.
Temperatures were in the lower 90s for the most part, with heat
index values in the 100 to 110 range.
The upper ridge will be centered near the Texas-Louisiana border
by tomorrow afternoon, and near Dallas-Fort Worth by Tuesday
morning, with the surface high near Houston at that point. As the
ridging gets to the west of the area, this will turn winds
northerly at the surface, which tends to bring us our hottest
temperatures. Forecast soundings indicate that we could mix out to
about 800 mb (around 7,000 feet), which would put most of the area
in the upper 90s. If the high is going to hit 100 degrees
anywhere tomorrow, it`d be most likely in the Mississippi coastal
counties. Fortunately, the dew points may drop off a couple
degrees. Current forecast heat index values for Monday are
generally in the 108 to 112 degree range, which is Heat Advisory
criteria, and another one has been issued for tomorrow. There is
certainly potential for a few areas to see heat index values
exceed 112 degrees tomorrow afternoon along the Interstate 10 and
12 corridors. If those readings look like they might become
widespread, an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning may be necessary
for Monday. Later shifts can take a second look at this threat.
May not be much relief Monday night with much of the area in the
upper 70s for lows. Portions of the New Orleans area may not fall
below 80 degrees all night Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
The center of ridging will be well to the west and northwest of
the area on Tuesday, with northerly surface flow continuing.
Moisture levels will be slowly increasing to near 2 inches by late
Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate we should again mix
out to close to 800 mb, and a repeat of Monday high temperatures
looks pretty likely. Convection allowing models that go out that
far indicate the potential for late afternoon thunderstorms to
develop, especially over eastern portions of the area. Soundings
indicate they would have pretty high cloud bases, at least by Gulf
Coast standards. Heat products look likely to be necessary as
well, at least until thunderstorms arrive.
Beyond Tuesday, our area will be trapped between ridging over the
western Atlantic and ridging over Texas. Moisture content
(precipitable water values 2 to 2.2 inches) will be sufficient for
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. While widespread heavy
rainfall doesn`t look particularly likely at this point, there
could be a few trouble spots each day. Temperatures each day could
still get into the lower and middle 90s before storms develop.
We`ll assess any need for heat related products on a day to day
basis.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Primarily VFR conditions this afternoon, although a few spots
could see brief ceilings as low as FL025. Very isolated SHRA/TSRA
are possible on sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, but threat
is too low to carry as prevailing. Will handle with amendments if
it appears there will be a direct impact to a terminal area. Even
less convective development is expected on Monday, with no more
than scattered cumulus expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase again late
Tuesday, with the threat continuing through the end of the week.
Prior to that point, winds and seas will be well below any
headline criteria.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 96 75 96 / 0 10 10 30
BTR 75 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 20
ASD 74 97 76 95 / 0 10 10 40
MSY 78 97 81 97 / 0 10 10 40
GPT 77 98 78 97 / 0 10 10 50
PQL 75 98 76 96 / 0 10 10 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW