419 FXUS64 KLIX 271823 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 123 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Upper ridge centered near the Alabama-Georgia border at midday, with the surface high centered near Birmingham. Some scattered to broken cumulus clouds noted on satellite, and some rather isolated and brief showers or a thunderstorm wouldn`t be a total shock on lake or sea breeze boundaries in the next couple hours. Temperatures were in the lower 90s for the most part, with heat index values in the 100 to 110 range. The upper ridge will be centered near the Texas-Louisiana border by tomorrow afternoon, and near Dallas-Fort Worth by Tuesday morning, with the surface high near Houston at that point. As the ridging gets to the west of the area, this will turn winds northerly at the surface, which tends to bring us our hottest temperatures. Forecast soundings indicate that we could mix out to about 800 mb (around 7,000 feet), which would put most of the area in the upper 90s. If the high is going to hit 100 degrees anywhere tomorrow, it`d be most likely in the Mississippi coastal counties. Fortunately, the dew points may drop off a couple degrees. Current forecast heat index values for Monday are generally in the 108 to 112 degree range, which is Heat Advisory criteria, and another one has been issued for tomorrow. There is certainly potential for a few areas to see heat index values exceed 112 degrees tomorrow afternoon along the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. If those readings look like they might become widespread, an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning may be necessary for Monday. Later shifts can take a second look at this threat. May not be much relief Monday night with much of the area in the upper 70s for lows. Portions of the New Orleans area may not fall below 80 degrees all night Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The center of ridging will be well to the west and northwest of the area on Tuesday, with northerly surface flow continuing. Moisture levels will be slowly increasing to near 2 inches by late Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate we should again mix out to close to 800 mb, and a repeat of Monday high temperatures looks pretty likely. Convection allowing models that go out that far indicate the potential for late afternoon thunderstorms to develop, especially over eastern portions of the area. Soundings indicate they would have pretty high cloud bases, at least by Gulf Coast standards. Heat products look likely to be necessary as well, at least until thunderstorms arrive. Beyond Tuesday, our area will be trapped between ridging over the western Atlantic and ridging over Texas. Moisture content (precipitable water values 2 to 2.2 inches) will be sufficient for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. While widespread heavy rainfall doesn`t look particularly likely at this point, there could be a few trouble spots each day. Temperatures each day could still get into the lower and middle 90s before storms develop. We`ll assess any need for heat related products on a day to day basis. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Primarily VFR conditions this afternoon, although a few spots could see brief ceilings as low as FL025. Very isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible on sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, but threat is too low to carry as prevailing. Will handle with amendments if it appears there will be a direct impact to a terminal area. Even less convective development is expected on Monday, with no more than scattered cumulus expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase again late Tuesday, with the threat continuing through the end of the week. Prior to that point, winds and seas will be well below any headline criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 96 75 96 / 0 10 10 30 BTR 75 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 20 ASD 74 97 76 95 / 0 10 10 40 MSY 78 97 81 97 / 0 10 10 40 GPT 77 98 78 97 / 0 10 10 50 PQL 75 98 76 96 / 0 10 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW