783 FXUS64 KLIX 092350 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Fairly typical summer weather will persist through the short term. The local area remains situated between two upper highs and under the influence of weak troughing aloft. With ample moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to affect the area mainly from the late morning through the late afternoon hours. Regarding convective threats, as has been the case for the last several days, organized severe weather is not a threat. However, a few updrafts could become strong/tall enough to result in a very isolated strong to marginally severe downburst threat. Precipitable water values are similar to what we`ve seen the last couple days, so while area average rainfall will remain fairly low, a few efficient storms could produce localized and nuisance- type flooding with rainfall accumulations of 1-2" in a shorter period of time. As is typical this time of year, convection should wane around sunset as we lose the instability associated with daytime heating. Cloud cover and rain-cooled outflow should keep afternoon temperatures from becoming too oppressive, topping out in the low to mid 90s with maximum heat index values mostly in the 100-105 degree range. While it`s not comfortable, these values are pretty common during summer on the Gulf Coast. Overnight lows are generally forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s most places, with lower 70s across southwestern Mississippi. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Local area will remain in the weakness between two upper highs through the first part of the weekend with continued diurnal scattered to numerous showers and storms. By Sunday the upper pattern will flatten somewhat as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic gradually shifts westward exerting a bit more influence over the local area. This should result in a slight decrease in convective coverage and a slight increase in afternoon temperatures during the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. NBM tends to have a high bias when it comes to rain chances associated with weakly forced environments in the extended range. Would not be surprised to see the current high end chance to likely POPs come down somewhat as the Sun-Tues time frame gets closer to the short term. Regarding the temperatures, we could see highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s due to the lower convective coverage. This will also result in higher afternoon heat index values, and current forecast calls for daily max heat index values approaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria in some areas by Monday. With questions in timing, coverage, and location of convection, the level of heat risk is on the lower end of the confidence spectrum at this time, but it`s certainly something to be monitored going into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Another round of convective activity will be the primary concern at all of the terminals. This thunderstorm activity will be most pronounced between 18z and 00z tomorrow, and TEMPO groups are in place to reflect this risk. The thunderstorm conditions will not last the entire afternoon, but brief periods of IFR visibilties due to heavy rain, locally gusty winds of 25 to 30 knots, and lightning could impact each terminal. A lower convective risk is in place between 15z and 18z, and this is reflected by PROB30 groups at the terminals with some MVFR visibility and ceiling impacts. Outside of the convective concerns, VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals. PG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Ongoing and developing scattered showers and storms necessitate the inclusion of TEMPO or PROB30 groups at different times through this afternoon. Convection should wane around 00z, with benign conditions overnight and a near repeat of today`s weather tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any localized impacts from convection. Winds will remain between 5 to 15 knots out of the south to southwest in an onshore direction through the work week. A fairly typical summertime convective pattern is expected with showers and storms developing during the late night, peaking during the morning hours, and diminishing through the afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 72 91 / 20 70 20 70 BTR 74 91 75 93 / 20 70 20 70 ASD 73 92 75 92 / 20 60 20 70 MSY 77 93 78 93 / 20 70 10 70 GPT 75 91 76 91 / 20 70 30 70 PQL 73 92 74 91 / 20 60 40 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...PG MARINE...DM