741 FXUS64 KLCH 270530 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level ridge will build in early next week bringing very hot and humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. - A low pressure wave along with a surge in deep moisture will begin to move in by mid week and linger toward the end of the period bringing a chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for torrential downpours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Today will be a transition day as an upper level ridge begins to work its way into the eastern portion of the forecast area. Before the upper ridge builds in, PWAT near 2 inches will probably hang around, especially western sections of the forecast area, that will allow for a few mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A brief heat wave will start to build in on Monday and especially on Tuesday, as an upper level ridge builds into and strengthens over the forecast area. The upper level ridge will provide dry air in the mid levels to cap the atmosphere that will preclude any significant convection from developing, to help air temperatures get into the mid to upper 90s on Monday with heat indices around 105F. Interesting by Tuesday a weak surface high over the northwest Gulf may bring a west to northwest flow over the forecast area, with potential increase in subsidence out ahead of an approaching easterly wave, that will combine to help soar air temperatures, with some spots at triple digits for air temperatures, Question will be how much mixing will take place to knock down dewpoints in the afternoon to keep overly oppressive conditions from forming. At the moment, Max Apparent Temperature tool shows a majority of the forecast area seeing afternoon heat index values near or above 108F degrees which would mean at least a Heat Advisory. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 By mid week, guidance is pretty consistent in breaking down the upper level ridge over the forecast area allowing an easterly wave and weakness aloft to move across the northern Gulf and into the forecast area. On Wednesday, projected PWAT values reach 2 inches with mean layer relative humidity values over 70 percent that will allow a return to clouds and rain chances. On Thursday into the end of the week, a more tropical like air mass with the wave is projected to reach the forecast area with PWAT values at or above 2.25 inches and mean layer relative humidity values over 80 percent. This should help provide widespread showers and thunderstorms, with efficient precipitation producers that will bring torrential downpours. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Air mass has stabilized this evening with all earlier convection dissipated and fair conditions. This should stay for a majority of the night with VFR conditions. The exception will be some patchy fog that may bring about MVFR conditions. The best chance for this to occur with be KAEX between 27/10-13z. On Sunday, an upper level ridge will begin to build in from the east. A few nocturnal showers will be possible around 27/12z for KBPT/KLCH as activity that is expected to form over the northwest Gulf coastal waters tries to move inland. By 27/18z, daytime heating will allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to form especially over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, and will mention VCTS at KBPT/KLCH/KAEX. At this time, will leave any mention of convection out of KLFT/KARA as drier air from the ridge is expected to move in. Away from the convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 A weak surface high will move across the northwest Gulf later today into early next week bringing light and variable winds and low seas. By the middle to end of the week, a weak low pressure trough will move into the northwest Gulf with mainly light on shore flow to go along with an increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 A humid air mass will hang around on Sunday with min afternoon relative humidity values above 50 percent to go along with a few showers and thunderstorms. A drier air mass will move in for early next week with min afternoon relative humidity values below 50 percent and little if any chance for rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 74 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 92 76 95 76 / 40 0 10 0 LFT 92 75 94 77 / 40 0 10 0 BPT 92 75 94 73 / 50 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07