382
FXUS64 KLCH 180002
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
602 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon/evening and
  bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures for Friday.


- Warmth and humidity quickly return Saturday and beyond as
  onshore flow becomes established through the remainder of the
  forecast period.

- Strong upper ridging builds over the CONUS late in the period,
  reinforcing the unseasonable warmth as we approach Christmas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 556 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Late morning surface analysis shows a surface trough near the
south TX coast, while aloft a shortwave trough is moving eastward
across the Ark-La-Tex. Area radar shows light shower activity
ongoing across parts of the area, while satellite shows area-wide
overcast skies. Isolated showers will continue into this afternoon
as the upper level shortwave traverses the region, which along
with cloud cover should hold temps in the mid to upper 60s this
afternoon.

Tonight into tomorrow, the upper level trough continues eastward,
shunting most of the ongoing shower activity east of the forecast
area. The eastern -most parts of the CWA, particularly lower
Acadiana, will likely still see some showers activity tonight
through early tomorrow as the aforementioned surface trough moves
up the coast, with otherwise dry, cloudy, and muggy conditions
area- wide. Tomorrow afternoon/evening into early Friday, a more
significant upper trough moves across the Plains and into Midwest,
sending a cold front south and through the forecast area. Winds
shift offshore tomorrow night and advect a drier and cooler
airmass into the area for Friday. Morning lows should reach into
the 40s Fri AM, while afternoon highs top out in the low to mid
60s amid sunny skies as surface high pressure briefly settles
overhead. Unfortunately, this shot of cooler/drier air will be
very brief as winds back to the SE by Fri evening, allowing
moisture to steadily return overnight into the weekend. Enjoy it
while it lasts, as this looks like our last day sub-70 degrees for
a while as a significant warm up is on the way in the long term
and beyond.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 556 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

As we move into the long term a prolonged warming trend will have
just begun, with no cooler weather on the way for the foreseeable
future. A zonal flow will develop aloft by early Saturday,
continuing into the early week until a ridge builds over the
central CONUS through the middle of next week. This ridge looks to
be rather strong and persistent, with no reprieve until possibly
around the end of the year. Until then, above average temperatures
and humid conditions will prevail with little day to day chances
expected. Highs generally will top out in the mid 70s each day
with dewpoints in the lower 60s, while overnight lows only fall
into the mid 50s to low 60s. Overall dry conditions are expected,
especially once the ridge builds in around the end of the period.
Before then, we could see some very isolated shower activity
Sun/Sun night, but this will be rather brief, and likely our last
chance of rain until the upper ridge breaks down beyond the end of
this forecast period.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Variable surface winds along with southerly winds aloft will
bring decent moisture to the region tonight. Mist is likely at
times with visibilities decreasing significantly toward the
midnight hour. Dense Fog will develop through the morning hours.
Areas of sea fog lifting inland may combine with IFR / LIFR
ceilings. VIS / Ceilings improve mid morning hours but likely
remaining MVFR into the afternoon as winds gain SW components.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  53  73  40  61 /  10  40  10   0
LCH  56  74  46  64 /  10  20  10   0
LFT  57  76  46  63 /  20  30  10   0
BPT  56  76  45  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30