689 FXUS64 KLCH 052336 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Regardless of heat headline issuance, please continue to practice heat safety precautions. - Weakness aloft will support higher rain chances through early to mid this work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A relatively typical summertime pattern is unfolding across the region this afternoon, with mostly quiet conditions and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Compared to yesterday, reduced cloud cover is allowing for increased surface heating, with highs expected to peak in the mid 90s. A weakening ridge continues to influence the area, though it is gradually eroding as a weak trough approaches and an area of low pressure, associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, lingers off the Carolina coast. While subsidence from the ridge is still sufficient to suppress widespread convection, isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven and tapering during the evening hours. A transition in the upper level pattern is anticipated by Sunday as the aforementioned tropical low detaches and migrates westward, positioning itself over the Gulf. This will lead to increased showers and thunderstorms, especially from late Sunday through early next week. Temperatures during the short term will remain near to slightly above climatological normals (within ~3F), though high humidity will result in heat indices ranging from 100 to 105F each afternoon. While this does not meet local heat advisory criteria, prolonged exposure may still pose health risksparticularly for vulnerable populations. Hydration, sun protection, and frequent cooling breaks are strongly encouraged for those with prolonged outdoor activity. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The long term period begins with an upper level trough lingering across the region, promoting daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms into midweek. By late week, guidance suggests a gradual amplification of heights as ridging attempts to build in. This transition should begin to suppress convective activity to some degree, especially by Thursday and Friday. As convective coverage decreases, daytime temperatures are expected to climb slightly. Heat index values will likewise trend upward, potentially reaching numerical thresholds for heat headlines late in the period. Regardless of official criteria being met, heat risks will remain a concern, and heat safety measures should continue to be practiced. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Subsidence has resulted in generally VFR conditions with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along coastal areas. Convection will tamp down after sundown. Some areas of patchy fog will be possible through the early morning hours. Upper low meanders overhead into Sunday which should result in a more-unsettled day as far as convection is concerned. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 96 72 94 / 0 30 10 50 LCH 76 93 76 91 / 0 30 10 60 LFT 75 93 74 91 / 10 50 20 70 BPT 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...11