532
FXUS64 KLCH 162305
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
505 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming and moistening trend will last into Thursday

- Low end rain chances possible Wed as a disturbance moves into
  the ArkLaTex. The system strengthens and moves through with
  showers and t-storms possible Thu. Heavy/flooding rainfall and
  severe weather not anticipated.

- A cool front will move through late Thursday bringing cool temps
  by Friday. Warmth and humidity quickly return Saturday and
  beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 458 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure is quickly shifting east and away.Winds are veering
east to southeast as the ridge departs staring the warming and
moistening trend that will last into Thursday.

A cool and dry, but overcast afternoon will continue, however rain
will return to the region late tonight/early Wed. A short wave will
move into TX while the ridge departs tonight through Wednesday
increasing lift. The next cold front will sweep through the region
Thursday as a larger short wave passes. While severe weather is not
anticipated, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out
from early Wed through Thu. Rainfall totals are expected to be
light and generally less than half an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 458 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A brief cool down is anticipated for Friday behind the departing
cold front. Temperatures are expected to be near climo norms for
the date, however temps and moisture will quickly stream back in
for the weekend.

Low pressure will move across the plains this weekend transporting
gulf moisture northward. Temps and dewpoints will quickly
increase. The higher dewpoints over the cooler ground and water
will create the optimal conditions for fog development, especially
over the coastal lakes and bays by Sunday.

An upper ridge will remain in place through much of early next
week keeping temps above climo norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Ceilings will continue falling through the period as moisture
surges inland on elevated southeasterly flow. This flow will be
further enhanced off the surface by approaching upper trof in
central Texas. As this trof moves towards the TX/LA state line,
ascent driven by nocturnal jet will interact with moist airmass in
the region to spread showers and embedded weak t-storms from
southwest to northeast after 06z tonight.

Periods of showers and weak, isolated thunder will prevail at BPT,
LCH and AEX for much of the period between 06z and 18 to 20z.
Thereafter, the trof begins washing out and convection loses its
intensity. Lower chances are found in Lower Acadiana, away from
the better lifting feature.

Winds will prevail from the east to southeast over the period
ahead of another developing frontal system set to move through
later in the week.

11/Calhoun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  62  51  73 /  20  40  10  40
LCH  50  65  56  74 /  20  50  10  30
LFT  48  68  56  76 /   0  20  20  40
BPT  53  67  56  76 /  40  60  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11