157 FXUS64 KLCH 250552 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms with torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds expected from this afternoon to Saturday. - Marginal risk of excessive rain for portions of the area today and Saturday. Expect highest totals along and south of I-10 today through Saturday. - Impactful rainfall leading to flash flooding has a lower chance, but is still possible, into Deep SE Texas and Central Louisiana. - Another heat wave develops rapidly Monday into Wednesday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The widespread convection ongoing this (Thursday) evening has finally come to an end with only a few isolated thunderstorms remaining near the region. Storms this evening have done their part in setting the stage for flooding risk in the coming days. Rainfall totals between 0.25 and 3.00 inches have already been observed across much of the area. That`s impressive considering the very progressive nature of storms today. Tropical wave will continue its meandering over the west-central Gulf today. Another round of convection is expected to bloom over coastal waters before another MCV type feature develops and moves inland during afternoon and early evening hours. This feature will be the focus for most-organized thunderstorm waves/clusters, so wherever that feature develops and begins to move towards, expect torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Storms could very quickly drop 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, so if storm motion is not very quick, unlike today, areas of flooding will be a large concern. As this feature will be coming from coastal areas, expect highest rainfall totals along and south of I-10. However, those north of I-10 could absolutely see impactful rainfall amounts today. The wave should begin moving inland in northeast Texas on Saturday. While another round of widespread, high PoPs are likely just due to proximity to the wave and lax upper high pressure ridge, an organized area like an MCV is not expected. Storms will carry the same heavy downpour, lightning and wind risk Saturday. High pressure starts to move back into the southeast US as the trof moves into the Dallas Metroplex region on Sunday. Since there is still some weakness over the forecast area Sunday, a more typical summertime day of PoPs can be expected. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected today and Saturday with a return to the mid 90s Sunday with departing cloud cover. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 High pressure returns in a big way to start the longterm period. A very defined warming trend starts the work week with highs in the mid to upper 90s Monday and upper 90s to near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure doesn`t appear to lock into place, though, and by Wednesday, the primary ridge appears to skirt into central Texas. In response to falling heights, a return to typical diurnal summer daytime PoPs will develop from east to west, maybe by Tuesday but definitely by Wednesday for central and southwest Louisiana. Perhaps due to the localized convection, some guidance develops a lowering of pressure in the northeast Gulf. This "pseudo-feature" does not appear to take on any tropical wave features and should only be a disturbed area of convection until high pressure develops once again by the weekend. The rapidly developing heat wave to start the week will likely bring on another round of Heat Advisories. Moisture from the current wave`s rainfall could add to area humidity making for a rapid-onset very dangerous heat scenario Monday through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, the increase in PoPs helps to keep temps in check somewhat. So, in the longterm period, there`s a few items to keep an eye on but nothing to cause grief just yet. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas of low clouds and patchy fog may develop across terminals through the morning hours in response to rainfall received on Thursday. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected today as tropical wave moves near the northwest Gulf. Expect nocturnal convection to develop offshore before moving inland through the morning hours. Another MCV, or surface vortex, is expected to develop over coastal waters along with convection, acting as a focus for heavier, more organized areas of storms. Near or within storms, expect very low VIS due to extremely heavy downpours, frequent lightning and variable gusty winds. Outside storms, low MVFR CIGs and variable somewhat breezy winds can be expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Expect a renewed round of nocturnal showers and thunderstorms to develop prior to sunrise in response to tropical wave and surface low meandering over the northwest Gulf. This feature moving nearby will also bring about an increase in winds and seas from east to west throughout the day today. Seas will increase to 2 to 4 feet with an onshore fetch around 15 knots with some higher gusts. Conditions will improve into Saturday as the wave begins moving inland. Elevated rain chances will prevail through the weekend, but winds should remain somewhat relaxed. High pressure prevails into the next work week bringing most rain chances to a close and allowing the calm conditions to settle in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Very humid tropical airmass has moved inland which will help to feed widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected today and into the weekend. Near or within storms expect torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and variable gusty winds. Outside of storm cells, mildly breezy winds and warm humidity can be expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 74 92 74 / 80 30 70 10 LCH 89 76 90 77 / 90 60 80 10 LFT 88 76 89 77 / 90 40 80 10 BPT 88 76 89 77 / 80 70 80 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11