837
FXUS64 KLCH 170607
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1207 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers with above normal temperatures will remain
  in the forecast through Thursday.

- A cold front will move through Thursday evening to bring cooler,
  but more seasonable temperatures by Friday, briefly.

- Warmth and humidity quickly return Saturday and beyond as
  onshore flow becomes established through the remainder of the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A shortwave trough is traversing the ArkLaTex region this afternoon,
with light to moderate morning showers waning into the evening
hours. Southerly flow aloft will extend the marine boundary layer
further inland today, providing near-normal highs beneath mostly
cloudy skies. A secondary shortwave trekking across the Midwest will
phase together Thursday with strengthening onshore flow. Warm air
advection will briefly hedge highs into the mid-70s ahead of the
front associated with this larger system. That said, forcing
dynamics will be poor across the forecast area, given the stronger
ascent forecast will be located well north. A few scattered showers,
and perhaps a rumble of thunder, will be possible during the
afternoon, but the forecast holds back from it being a washout.

With the stronger pressure gradient seen across the Missouri Valley,
winds veering out of the north will be moderate through the morning
hours, Friday. Thus, cooler but near-normal temperatures are likely
while winds ease late in the afternoon and become light easterlies
by dusk.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Trending into the early weekend, the potential for marine fog
increases as a southerly regime sets in. High pressure will
migrate and center over the Carolinas, assisting in establishing
southerly flow across southeast TX and southwest LA through the
remainder of the forecast period. With nearshore waters trending
around 60F while humid air consisting of dewpoints in the mid-60s
flows over them, chances of fog will likely increase during the
nocturnal hours.

Overall, the forecast trends toward the dry side during the long
range with respect to falling precipitation. Highs will creep back
into the mid-to-upper 70s beginning Saturday through the remainder
of the period. Deterministic guidance is a bit overzealous with
chances of isolated pop-ups, whereas a blended guidance approach
keeps these chances very slimunder 10% Sunday and Monday. A closer
look at projected mid-level atmospheric profiles reveals a
subsidence layer around 3km AGL, which would hinder developing
cumulus. Hereafter, upper-level flow continues to broaden and build
ridging across Mexico. This developing pattern will further
facilitate above-normal temperatures through next Tuesday. It is
worth noting the long-range forecast discussion is congruent with
the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook, suggesting above-normal
temperatures will persist well through the holiday week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VCSH will increase across southeast TX, later spreading across
Central / south LA through the dawn and mid morning hours. Ceiling
forecast to lower through morning twilight, areas with lower MVFR or
IFR ceilings will likely develop some visibility reductions during
this period. Showers will continue to be isolated scattered into the
afternoon hours.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A light to moderate east flow is possible through early Thursday
before the next cold front moves into the central Gulf. Winds will
veer south through the afternoon then turn quickly offshore and
strengthen Friday morning and a brief Small Craft Advisory may be
needed during daytime hours. A return to onshore flow occurs by late
Friday with warm moist air moving inland once again to the rest of
the period.

Cool shelf waters combined with warm moisture return and mostly calm
conditions will likely bring back the occurrence of marine fog by
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

RH increases today toward 70 to 80 percent today and Thursday. A
disturbance moving across the region will bring continued rain
chances through early Thursday ahead of a strong cold front.
Wetting rainfall totals are not forecast. A brief period of strong
north winds will bring south cool and dry air again on Friday
where minimum RH drops toward 30-45%. However, winds turn south
again by late Friday bringing heat and humidity right back into
the region through the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  52  73  39 /  40  10  40  10
LCH  66  57  75  44 /  50  10  30   0
LFT  69  57  77  45 /  20  20  30  10
BPT  66  57  75  44 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30