474 FXUS64 KSHV 271118 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 618 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The last rounds of lingering showers and storms have at last departed the ArkLaTex as of the 07Z hour, leaving areawide quiet weather conditions in their wake. As winds become light and variable towards dawn, the sheltered and saturated airmass will be favorable for the development of patchy fog, continuing after daybreak and dissipating into the mid-morning. As the shortwave trough responsible for yesterday evening`s storms dawdles on its eastward trek across the Deep South, further showers and storms will be kicked up over the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. For the most part, these storms will remain well east of the ArkLaTex, but a very isolated storm or two impacting our easternmost zones is not out of the question. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will prevail this afternoon, while renewed upper level ridging overhead favors another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s, with some sites reaching the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows will continue on track in the 60s, followed by another afternoon of middle to upper 80s Monday, which will largely be a carbon copy of today, save for increasing cloud cover for our east Texas zones. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 By Monday night, the axis of the pronounced upper level ridge which has sustained these well above average temperatures will be in the process of being pushed eastward out of the Four State Region by a deep upper level longwave trough positioned over much of the western CONUS. This trough will be the catalyst behind a more unsettled pattern which will define much of the week. As the trough loses its first closed low, it will develop a pronounced positive tilt as it deepen and reorganizes itself, potentially around a new closed low. This upper level regime will set the stage for southwest flow overhead, funneling moisture into the ArkLaTex, aided by southerly surface winds. This regime will also favor sustained warms, with highs remaining in the 80s through much of the week. While the above average warmth looks to be here to stay, the current respite from active weather will be short-lived by comparison. The majority of the week will see a return to a characteristic springtime unsettled pattern, with showers and storms beginning across our northwesternmost zones as soon as Tuesday morning, becoming more widespread overnight and into the day Wednesday. The southwest flow pattern looks to remain largely in place as the week continues, while the troughing to the west attempts to reorganize around a new closed low, digging to the south over the Rockies before attempting to eject eastward over the Plains of west Texas and Oklahoma. As this large complex pushes east, it looks to result in widespread severe weather across the High Plains and Upper Midwest Monday, with impacts gradually pushing south and east into Tuesday. The latest outlook just barely clips our northwesternmost zones with a Marginal Risk on Tuesday, with chances pushing further into the ArkLaTex Wednesday. Precise timing and nature of these potential impacts remains uncertain, and will be closely monitored in the coming days. Long range guidance depicts the upper level trough pushing eastward past the ArkLaTex late in the week, with pseudo-zonal flow aloft in its wake. The unsettled pattern will continue for the Four State Region, however, with at least slight chances of showers and storms returning during the afternoon Friday, continuing into next weekend. The passage of the front associated with the upper level trough looks to mitigate temperatures somewhat, as highs remain in the low to mid 80s, but a new developing ridge will favor a warming trend returning upper 80s to the region by the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Southerly flow to persist across area terminals allowing for IFR/LIFR ceilings and reduced visibilities through 27/15Z before conditions improve to VFR through the afternoon into the evening. Could see reduced ceilings and visibilites near daybreak Monday morning. Otherwise, south winds 5 to 10 mph today to become light and variable overnight. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 89 67 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 84 65 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 88 68 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 88 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 87 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 88 68 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...05