178 FXUS64 KLIX 102344 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Starting with the upper levels, a north/south trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle and ridge centered over the Desert Southwest encompasses the rest of the country. That puts the CWA right between both features. As you`d expect this time of year, frontal boundary associated with the trough has stalled along the northern Gulf Coast. That front was the initial focal point for convection to begin developing early this afternoon. In the last couple hours, that activity has been able to capitalize on very high instability. Quite robust thunderstorms will continue to develop with the potential for severe hail and winds. Expect this activity persist will into the evening hours before dissipating. Expect pretty much the same thing tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Upper troughing becomes more fully established across Texas on Thursday, while the Bermuda high has a westward extension into the eastern Gulf. In actuality, it is more of a weakness between ridges to our east and west than a trough as such. But it will serve as a focus for moisture just to our west. We will not see an actual passage of the trough locally, as it will remain just to our west until it lifts northeastward late in the weekend. Thus, we are likely to see development of scattered showers and storms pretty much every day through the weekend. Most of the precipitation will occur during the late morning and afternoon hours, with very little to differentiate one day from another. This will be true of not only rain chances, but of temperatures as well. I don`t see any day out of the next 7 that we could confidently say is going to remain dry. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Prevailing VFR for most terminals, outside of ones being impacted by convection currently. Once convection ends, low cigs may briefly hang around before clearing through the evening. MCB may see some patchy fog bringing brief MVFR conditions early Wednesday morning. Convection likely again Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A weakening frontal boundary is stalling along the northern Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms along this boundary will be the most appreciable impacts from this front with gusty winds and weak waterspouts possible. Otherwise, gradient winds should be relatively light for throughout the forecast period with winds generally onshore due to surface ridge centered east of local area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 89 71 89 / 10 40 10 70 BTR 72 90 74 91 / 20 60 20 80 ASD 71 89 73 90 / 30 70 20 70 MSY 76 90 77 91 / 30 80 20 80 GPT 73 88 74 88 / 30 60 30 70 PQL 72 89 73 88 / 30 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...HL MARINE...ME