996 FXUS64 KLIX 042308 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 608 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Far fewer showers and thunderstorms out there today than was initially anticipated. That said we are finally starting to get a little more development during the afternoon but it is a far cry from the 60-70 PoPs some of the guidance suggested. The culprit appears to be far less moisture than what was expected to move in. Blended TPW product and GOES19 TPW indicates around 1.5" which is right around average. So with average moisture in place what extra do we have to get more convection and as of right now, not much. So with the lack of activity today what about tomorrow. Moisture is anticipated to increase into tomorrow with PWs maybe 1.7" but looking at GOES that deeper moisture is quite a ways out of the area and could take some time to build in. At the same time the ridge to our southwest is expected to start to build into the region which could slightly negate the moisture increase. With that far less impressed with the rain chances tomorrow and it could be even less coverage than today given the building ridge and rising hghts. That also will lead to a warm day and highs may be a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow. Heading into Friday the same questions remain however the ridge will be firmly entrenched into the area and h5 temps may be almost 2 degrees warmer. In addition PWs could be right back around 1.5-1.6". With that Friday looks like it could be a rather dry day with convection struggling. Again as has been said much of the week, not sure what the NBM is holding onto to have such high PoPs, it is lower than yesterday with mainly 30-40s but honestly would like to carry 20-30 over much of the area. Just like Thursday the lack of convection and cloud cover will likely lead to slightly warmer temps again and there could be a few mid 90s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Medium range models continue to be in rather good agreement. Pattern will begin to shift with northwest flow moving back in over the area and much higher rain chances returning. Confidence in rain is much higher than what we had for today. At this time no changes made to the NBM extended grids as they are in line with what we are thinking. Saturday will likely be fairly similar to Friday as the ridge will still be dominating the region and moisture will not have increased yet. Heading into Saturday night The pattern will begin to amplify as the Rex Block over the Pacific coast develops and a strong disturbance drops southeast into the Plains. The trough will continue to deepen and dig across the eastern CONUS Sunday eroding the northeastern side of the ridge. This will increase the rain chances but with northwest flow rain will likely develop later in the afternoon but there should be scattered to numerous storms by mid/late afternoon. The more concerning day still looks like Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a strong s/w in the northwest flow moving through Monday/Monday evening. This very well could lead to a round of strong to severe storms if not a potent MCS. We will have to keep an eye on the overnight Sunday hours into Tuesday for one to two separate MCS`s. That said at this time it is impossible to try and time these out. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Light southerly winds and mostly VFR conditions expected through the cycle. MCB may experience some shallow fog early in the morning hours, but this should quickly mix out after sunrise. Winds will remain light and generally southerly. Will need to watch tomorrow afternoon for an isolated shower or two for GPT, but for now left all terminals rain free. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Winds continue to veer around to the southeast and weaken. High pressure will dominate the region through Friday leading to light winds. Winds will start to slowy increase as the surface high slides east over the weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 92 71 93 / 10 20 0 20 BTR 73 92 74 94 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 71 91 73 92 / 0 20 0 30 MSY 76 91 76 93 / 0 20 0 40 GPT 74 88 74 90 / 10 30 10 30 PQL 71 89 73 90 / 10 30 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RDF MARINE...CAB