788 FXUS64 KLIX 162308 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 608 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A strong and deep layer ridge axis will be the main feature impacting the forecast through Friday night. Tonight into tomorrow will continue to see a drier than average airmass persist across the area, and this will keep humidity values low and allow for a larger than average diurnal range. Lows will cool back into the upper 40s and 50s tonight before quickly warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night will see dewpoints begin to rise dramatically as moisture transport from the Gulf intensifies on the back of a sustained onshore flow regime. This will result in overnight lows averaging a good 10 degrees warmer than tonight with readings only cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations. Continued above average temperatures are expected on Friday as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the period of benign weather conditions continues through Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Saturday will be warm and muggy day as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s and temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. A more widespread strato-cumulus cloud field will be in place, and expect to see mostly cloudy conditions for much of the day and even into Saturday night. However, very dry air above 850mb will remain in place, so no rainfall is expected both Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday through Tuesday night will see an overall change in the upper level pattern as the strong ridge axis shifts to the east and a shortwave trough ejects out of the southern Plains. A weak surface low will form over the Ozarks and quickly drive a weak front into the area Sunday afternoon. As through parent trough pulls further to the northeast, the overall flow regime will turn parallel to the frontal boundary Sunday night into Monday, and this will result in the front stalling somewhere in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The end result is that a focusing mechanism for diurnally induced convection will be in place to start out the week. The convective activity on Sunday will be more isolated and mainly confined to the northwest third of the forecast area where height falls are greatest and overall lift is maximized. However, this stalled front will combine with another weak upper level impulse sliding through on the back of the deep layer southwest flow pattern on Monday to produce scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. This will be the highest PoP day and overall rain chances have increased by around 10 percent to 50 to 60 percent for Monday afternoon. Tuesday will see lower PoP in the afternoon hours due to a lack of forcing aloft. Any convection that forms will be more isolated and short lived. Fortunately, the lack of decent shear in the area will keep any convection on the weaker side as well. Temperatures will be warmer than average to start out the period on Saturday and Sunday as highs continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool to around 70, but a return to more normal temperatures is expected on Monday and Tuesday in response to increased convective coverage and cloud development. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Favorable flying conditions through the cycle as VIS and CIGs will remain VFR. Winds have transitioned to a southerly direction and will remain generally light overnight, however, some gusts 20 to 25kts may be possible on Thursday during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds are expected to remain onshore through the weekend and into early next week as surface ridging dominates the eastern Gulf. A weak front will also slide toward the waters early next week, but the front should stall well inland. The only impact from the front will be a slightly increased risk of thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday. The onshore winds will also increase by Friday and remain elevated in the 15 to 20 knot range through Sunday as a low pressure system intensifies in the southern Plains. Due to the long fetch of the onshore flow regime in the Gulf, significant wave heights will also increase to around 6 feet in the outer open Gulf waters as the combination of wind waves and swell work together to produce rougher conditions. Winds will start to relax on Monday as the low pulls away and the pressure gradient over the waters eases. Seas will slowly improve as the swell train dissipates with seas declining from 5 to 6 feet to 3 to 4 feet by Monday night. Exercise caution headlines will be needed for the weekend in the open Gulf waters, but the more protected sounds and lakes should see better boating conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 50 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 84 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 51 81 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 81 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 54 76 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RDF MARINE...PG