494
FXUS64 KLIX 240957
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Winds will be coming around to a SE direction with some added
moisture today but mixing is heightened from an inverted trough
moving through the gulf with the northern extention into the
southern portion of the area, so more than likely this will result
in a strat deck off the ground for tonight/Christmas morning. And
cloud depths will get deeper from there, so some light showers could
be the result by late tonight. A strong s/w dropping into the base
of the long wave H3 trough today through tonight will help develop a
sfc low and line of sh/ts that moves through eastern OK/TX later
today and tonight. Some showers should dot the area by late tonight
and most of the activity on Christmas Day will be showers but there
will be some storms mixing in by mid morning. The threat of storms
moves east Christmas Night but this will not be a clean sweep as
cloudy skies and lingering showers will remain into Thu. Now for the
next issue, Fog. After this first front stalls, it simply does not
scour dew pts but it does lower temps a few degrees along with the
advection of a low level sub inversion. SE winds continue to bring a
supply of moisture to the area beneath this inversion late Wed
with a developing frontal inversion in the lowest sfc layer(~1kft).
This sets the stage for an advective fog pattern during the
afternoon/evening hours Wed that if developed, would stay in
through the night. It`s not common, but fog can and does set in
even during the daylight hours when conditions are perfect. This
is not solid and will need to be watched closely especially as the
first front stalls.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

A very progressive pattern sets up once this front reaches our area
and stalls as the next quickly developing front starts to move
toward us and stalls by Fri over east TX thorugh northern LA.
Between this front and the weak troughing from the old front near
our area, this should keep us in cloudy, warm, drizzly/showery
conditions through the weekend. Models are shifting quite a bit with
each run for the next frontal passage which was shown as Sunday, but
this solution has now shifted to Tue for the EURO and Thu for the
GFS. This is well past this fcast range and will only be watch to
find a trend in solutions over the coming days. The only pattern
that can be resolved that all global guidance agrees on is there
will be a cold front that cleans the area sometime next week. That
is the only thing we can have at least a bit of confidence in as
this is now the trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

VFR conditions through much of this cycle. Some cigs will begin to
invade from the gulf by late evening but should remain MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Winds will shift to SE later today and S to even SW by Wed remaining
around 15kt most of the time. Some showers will move over the
northern gulf today with some storms mixed in tonight through Wed.
Winds will remain E through SE for the remainer of the week around
15kt with showers possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  47  64  54 /   0  10  70  50
BTR  73  54  71  60 /   0  10  70  40
ASD  69  51  69  56 /   0  10  70  50
MSY  68  56  69  59 /   0  10  70  40
GPT  66  51  67  57 /   0  10  60  60
PQL  71  48  71  54 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE