289 FXUS64 KLCH 221909 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer has taken hold across the area, and seasonably hot and humid conditions will prevail for the new week, with daily chances to play the "Afternoon Thunderstorm Lottery". - Isolated showers and storms this afternoon will gradually increase in coverage deeper into the week. While the amount of afternoon storms will vary somewhat day to day, today`s round of storms is likely to be the most sparse of the week. - While temperatures are seasonable, we are getting into the time of year where even normal heat can be dangerous to vulnerable folks. Particularly for those who will be extra sensitive to heat, or folks working/otherwise strenuously exerting themselves in the full sun, it`s still important to stay well-hydrated and have sufficient breaks in cooled areas to stay ahead of heat stress/illness. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Today`s round of convection had been struggling pretty mightily, with most of the action not just west of the Sabine, but mostly west of the forecast area entirely. In the last hour or so, however, things have begun to get a little kick start, particularly around Lake Charles specifically. A few thunderstorms have managed to get started, fulfilling the expectations of isolated activity this afternoon. So, while the radar shouldn`t fill in a whole lot, we are no longer going to stay dry across the area, either. Weather will remain quite seasonable through the short term (and really beyond, but we`ll get to that in the next section) as a strong mid-level ridge builds over the Eastern US. This puts our corner of Louisiana and Texas right on the southwestern fringe of that heat dome. On the plus side, that means we miss out on the advertised big heat Out East, instead seeing more typical late June conditions (which is, of course, still hot and humid). On the downside, this puts us in prime position to get both a persistent onshore flow pumping in Gulf moisture and to sit underneath passing shortwave troughs/vort maxes while this ridge hangs out in place. In fact, both Monday and Tuesday look to see little vort maxes push on by across the Gulf, giving us two afternoons with scattered storms at the least, and should be more numerous around and coastward of I-10. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 In the second half of the week, the broad pattern will remain unchanged as a summery week continues. This comes complete with the same heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances. However, because the features that will determine afternoon storm coverage are small, nuanced, and difficult to forecast at range, I`m more hesitant to describe things in as much detail as in the short term, as small changes in shortwave timing can easily lay waste to all those expectations. So, I`ll try to sketch things out, but with the strong caveat that this is very open to shifting around in time and space as the situation evolves. After looking at some days with greater coverage of daily storms expected early in the week, I`d expect things to back off modestly Wednesday, and continue perhaps as late as Friday. These days should still be more impressive than today, still giving us scattered coverage of storms, but it does look like in the wake of those early week disturbances, we should get a bit of a rebound in mid-level heights in their wake, for an indeterminate length. Now, at the end of the week is when things might get kinda weird. By this point, a decently strong upper trough moves in from the Atlantic, and looks to break the strong Eastern US upper ridge. This should break us out of the pattern that dominates most of the week, but how exactly things break will probably depend on a more precise track/strength of this trough and how much it breaks down the upper ridge. Given that ensemble data for moisture, CAPE, and temperature aren`t too extreme, staying within the 10th-90th percentile bounds in both NAEFS and the Euro Ensemble, it seems pretty likely that whatever happens won`t be too wildly different from typical summertime conditions. But, for what it`s worth, LREF clustering analysis is pretty consistent on showing thunderstorm coverage increasing some, particularly in the easternmost part of the area, around/east of I-49. Just...don`t get too attached to that specific outcome just yet, we can let the process play out a bit through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 VFR prevails with light, generally southerly to southeasterly winds. SHRA/TSRA development today has largely been to the west, but enough activity around BPT to justify a VCSH there. Elsewhere, have tentatively pulled PROB30s elsewhere given lack of coverage so far. If storms blossom, may have to amend SHRA/TSRA mentions back in as needed. Overnight, winds go light/VRB and whatever shower activity from the day will wane. Some patchy fog expected in the pre-dawn hours, and have a few hours of MVFR VSBY from AEX down to ARA, but do leave LCH and BPT clear through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Southeasterly winds and low seas will prevail through the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will continue to hang around today, then chances of showers and storms increase deeper into the week as a series of disturbances moves across the central Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 93 73 93 / 10 30 10 30 LCH 74 91 75 90 / 10 50 20 70 LFT 74 91 74 91 / 20 60 20 80 BPT 77 91 75 91 / 20 40 10 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HGX/Luchs LONG TERM....HGX/Luchs AVIATION...HGX/Luchs