430 FXUS64 KLCH 170443 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Onshore winds from the Gulf will bring about humid conditions for the rest of the week - Dry conditions for the rest of the week - Chances of showers and thunderstorms, some severe, return for Easter Sunday && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 No changes to the forecast this evening. The 17/00z upper air sounding from KLCH shows a relatively dry atmospheric profile in place. May see some low level clouds form under the cap overnight as southerly flow prevails. Otherwise, a mild night temperature wise and overnight lows are in the ballpark to the current forecast. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 High pressure moving over the region has and will continue to keep us dry through the short term period. However, as this high pressure dome sets up to the east, onshore flow will open the door for deep moisture return over the coming days. Expect very warm and very humid conditions to develop over the end of the week. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The warmth and humidity continues into the start of the longterm period. Increasing pressure grad between high over Florida and approaching upper trof to the cenUS will bring about breezy conditions Saturday. This will offer a very small reprieve from the deep humidity setting in to southeast Texas and Louisiana. Frontal system kicks off moving southeast into Sunday morning. Latest guidance has upper troughing less amplified, resulting in less forcing overall and a slower progression Sunday morning. Thus, the timing has been adjusted slightly. Another feature guidance is hitting on is the existence of a cap over the forecast area. As convection along the front nears the region Sunday morning, the line dies off and slowly lags across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. A round of afternoon convection is possible to develop in the afternoon along the boundary and within deep moisture, but it`s unseen for now if this will be reality. Long story short, even though the SPC has expanded the Slight Risk area of coverage into southwest Louisiana, confidence on an organized severe risk has decreased. However, there will be moisture, heat and a local boundary all present, so at minimum there will be an isolated risk of storms with damaging winds and large hail. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor holiday plans on Sunday. Continue to monitor the forecast for latest information. This frontal passage does not appear to bring a break in the heat or humidity going into the start of the next work week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Currently VFR levels at all terminals with mainly just high level cloudiness. During the night, light southerly flow will increase low level moisture with the potential for low clouds developing at KBPT/KLCH/KAEX that would have MVFR ceilings. Mainly VFR conditions are expected on Thursday with breezy south winds and gusts to around or above 20 knots. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Onshore flow will resume this afternoon and increase on Thursday, prevailing elevated flow through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory may be warranted by later in the day Thursday. Waves will increase in response to the winds with a combination of swell and wind waves. Wave heights will be between 6 and 8 feet near the end of the week and going into the weekend. The swell will be from the south and will have a period of 7 to 8 seconds and will peak late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 57 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 64 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 62 82 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 65 82 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...07