653 FXUS64 KLCH 070526 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -An upper low aloft will support increased rain chances through Tuesday before diminishing. -This feature will be replaced by strong ridging out west and weak ridging to our east, with a return to more typical diurnally driven convection expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Mid/upper level low was situated over the north central Gulf as of 00Z analysis, with a northerly flow aloft ongoing overhead. 00Z LCH sounding shows a PWAT of 1.54", which is near the 25th percentile for this date according to SPC climo. Unfortunately for us, this drier air isn`t really making it to the surface with currently RH values across the forecast area ranging from around 80 to 100%. Warm and humid conditions continue through sunrise, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. As we head into the work week, the aforementioned upper level low will continue to slowly trek westward across the northern Gulf Coast, eventually becoming situated near the TX/LA boarder where it will eventually weaken and become absorbed in the larger flow aloft. As it tracks west today it will provide additional support for showers and thunderstorms, especially as daytime heating begins to ramp up through the mid/later half of the day. While convection should again be fairly scattered in nature, coverage will likely be a bit more than typical summertime showers, thanks to the additional upper level support overhead. While the upper low is expected to largely dissipate tomorrow, NBM continues to pant rather high POPs across the region once again. Opted to tamper these down slightly to account for slightly drier model trends (both in the CAMs and global models). Definitely think we will see a good smattering of convection once again Tuesday afternoon, but coverage should be a bit less than today as upper level support slowly wanes. By Wednesday, upper level ridging begins to amplify over the Desert SW, while to our east upper ridging begins to build from the Atlantic across the southeastern CONUS. Global models do depict a very broad weakness lingering between these features across east TX/west LA however, it is somewhat uncertain how much influence this will really have. The Euro continues to paint higher rain chances for Wed and beyond, while the remaining global models are leaning towards a more typical solution of fairly scattered convection and lower POPs. Regardless, it doesn`t seem like the two ridges will have much control of the forecast area quite yet, so we should once again see diurnally driven storms fire up by midday and expand in coverage through the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Thursday through the weekend, we begin to see some influence from the Desert SW ridge as it expands across TX and continues to amplify. Rain chances for SE TX begin to decrease a bit through this period, while the eastern half of the region keeps decently high rain chances in place (to account for diurnal convection). Definitely think NBM is a bit on the high side regarding POPs in the long term, but we`ll see how things play out with the 2 ridges through the work week. Otherwise, the main concern in the extended period will be temperatures, as ridging aloft brings warmer temps and in turn higher heat indices. We may start to see apparent temps approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria by late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Light winds and high clouds will largely prevail through the forecast period. A bit of patchy fog will be possible at AEX as we approach sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop through the midday and expand in coverage through the afternoon. These storms may occasionally pass over the terminals reducing VIS and bringing gusty winds. Away from convection VFR conditions continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the work week, with slightly higher coverage expected today and tomorrow vs the later half of the week. Weak high pressure will continue to meander around the southeastern US providing a light onshore flow and low seas throughout the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Elevated rain chances are again expected today through Tuesday as an upper low moves overhead and stalls. The low gradually dissipates through Wednesday, with a return to more typical summertime convection expected through the later half of the week. Daily minimum RH values in the 50 to 65 percent range can be expected through the work week. With little forcing, winds will also remain fairly light and out of the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 72 93 72 / 40 10 60 10 LCH 91 76 92 76 / 60 20 70 20 LFT 90 75 91 75 / 60 10 70 10 BPT 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 70 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17