773 FXUS64 KLIX 112332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Definitely in an active pattern with daily storms however some days will have more than other. Today and tomorrow may be a little more limited in coverage as we are in a transition but by Friday through the weekend and into next week don`t be surprised to hear thunder each day. You may not actually get rain each day but storms will be around. First for the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight we will have to deal with a few storms. Not nearly as unstable as yesterday and the environment is not as impressive with respect to downburst potential but with DCAPE of 1000-1100 across the western 2/3rds of the CWA the potential is still pretty good to get a few wet downburst. Mid lvl temps are actually a little on the cooler side around -7 to -8C however this convection is primarily firing off of the seabreeze and then the outflow boundaries are colliding with each other and the lake breeze. That is the primary driver to the current convection as s/w ridging is expected to slide through the area right now and through tonight. With that this convection will be highly driven by the afternoon hating so it should die down rather quickly this evening after the sun goes down. Until then look for a few strong to severe storms with a few downbursts having already occurred across the southshore. South of I-12 along the immediate northshore will likely miss out on rain as any storms that try to fire will do so along the lake breeze which is already north of the interstate (hello lake shadow). As for tomorrow, we will likely see scattered to numerous storms again. Storm coverage should be a little greater than what we see today as we will have a trough axis to our west all the way into the Gulf and SSW towards southern TX. There will likely be a little more mid lvl flow and maybe a subtle impulse which should help lead to greater coverage. Moisture will not be in short supply with PWs expected right around 1.9-2" combine that with a steady southerly winds from the sfc to h7 and the seabreeze likely activates pretty early tomorrow, maybe between 14/15z. This should lead to convection quickly expanding north across the area. With storms probably developing earlier that will limit how unstable we get as the added cloud cover will hurt daytime heating. With that not really anticipating much in the way of severe however, it is summer, we have more than enough moisture in place, some mid lvl flow so we don`t need much to get one or two potent storms. There will be some diffluence aloft so storms will be efficient and with the amount of moisture available will be very efficient and capable of producing a lot of rain in a short time. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Medium range models continue to be in fairly good agreement with the pattern and its evolution over the next week. This should continue to lead to above normal rain chances and along with warm and humid conditions. Biggest change in the forecast is actually to lower PoPs this weekend and into next week. Even though we just said PoPs will be above normal the NBM continues to advertise 70-90% every single day. MOS (MEX and ECX) guidance is considerably lower around 40-60%. MOS does veer towards climo near the end of the product but Friday through Sunday is not as impacted by climo. Yes there will likely be storms everyday and you will probably see thunderstorms everyday but it is not likely to rain over any one spot...EVERY...SINGLE...DAY. We have mentioned multiple times we are not confident enough to lower PoPs over any specific spot but dropping PoPs 10-20% across the board seems to be a better forecast. NBM is notorious for over forecast PoPs for this time of the year so with that we did drop PoPs some but still are forecasting numerous storms over the area each day. Friday through the weekend and even the first half of the new work week we will be stuck between 2 ridges. A strong more stout ridge will set up over AZ/NM/TX/Mexico border by Saturday and will slowly build north-northeast across the 4 corners and southern Rockies. At the same time another ridge will build over the Bahamas. This places us in the weakness between the two ridges. There may even be some slight trough trying to drop into the Lower MS Valley but overall we will be in a weakness. This does allow for convection to develop easier which you would think again why lower the PoPs. The biggest reason is that with out any real synoptic forcing storms will be driven solely off of diurnal fluctuations. So storms will likely be waiting until the seabreeze can get activated and then everything will be driven by boundary interactions. That said the seabreeze will likely not activate as fast given the very light LL winds and with LL winds not unidirectional and out of the south. Generally we need winds out of the south from the sfc to h85 or even higher to really get things popping earlier and that also lead to the seabreeze penetrating well north. So we what we will likely see most days is the seabreeze slowly push north likely getting a little farther away from the immediate coast before it finally fires convection. Locations like Gulfport, Biloxi and other cities immediately on the coast may remain dry a few days as storms don`t start to fire until north of I-10 (very similar to the lake shadow along the northshore). All that said there will be storms everyday just not the coverage that the NBM is trying to suggest. It looks like the ridges will try to merge across the Gulf mid late next week so that should begin to lead to lower PoPs and warmer temps. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Outside of convection VFR conditions are present and as daytime heating continues to wind down the convection also will. A stray shower may occur overnight, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. That said we could see a few sites deal with the typical summer early morning stratus and maybe some very light fog at a few sites but not confident enough to add it to anyone other than MCB where the actual impact should be minimal. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Winds will remain light through much of the forecast. Just the typical nocturnal jet east of the MS river delta where winds may be about 2-3 kts higher overnight. Main concern for marine operations will be the potential for thunderstorms to produced localized hazardous conditions. That will be the case each day/night through the forecast period. Do not anticipate a need for advisories or Exercise Caution headlines at this time. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 90 73 90 / 30 70 20 80 BTR 74 91 75 90 / 40 70 20 80 ASD 74 91 75 90 / 20 50 20 80 MSY 77 91 78 91 / 20 60 20 80 GPT 76 88 77 88 / 20 50 30 80 PQL 73 89 75 89 / 20 50 30 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...DS MARINE...CAB