018 FXUS64 KLIX 022010 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Disturbance continues to work southeast across the northeastern Gulf and drier air has worked into the area. This has kept the area rain free with only fairly weak shallow cu. Temps have warmed into the mid to upper 80s everywhere but while heat indices are ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The next 36 hrs will continue to remain fairly quiet. We will see a weak Rex Block set up over the eastern Gulf and southeastern CONUS tonight. With that the pattern will be slow to change over the next few days. As that block sets up it keep things fairly quiet initially but heading into the Wednesday and Thursday before it breaks down we will see rain chances return. The disturbance mentioned earlier is currently moving into the eastern Gulf but as it sits over the eastern Gulf the moisture associated with it will begin to get pulled back to the north-northwest from the eastern Gulf as a trough works slowly across the central CONUS and MS Valley. With the weak Rex block still centered east of the area and a ridge slowly building over Mexico we will be in a weakness between the two while at the same time that trough works across the MS Valley Wednesday. That and the increase in moisture should allow for at least scattered convection if not numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Medium range models in fairly good agreement heading into the weekend and coming out. Overall we move into more of a typical Summer pattern meaning hello warm muggy days and hit or miss afternoon storms but at least at this point it is a little more or what we would be accustomed to and no major surprises. No changes made to the latest NBM however PoPs are probably too high overall just not confident enough to make any specific adjustments. Heading into the end of the work week and weekend the Rex Block will break down as that trough continues to slide east. Working in right behind the trough will be the ridge building over TX and nosing into the western Gulf. The ridge will be fairly flat expanding from just into the Pacific east across the Gulf with the center near the coast over the TX/Mexico border. With the ridge mostly flat and not overpowering or amplifying the suppression will not be that strong and should allow for the typical 30-40% thunderstorm coverage each afternoon and into the early evening hours. Friday some of the models and the NBM seem to be a little more bullish possibly because the ridge may still be building in and if the trough evacuates slower than anticipated then the PoPs on Friday may very well be similar to Wednesday and Thursday. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast for most if not all terminals. The lone exception may be MCB with vsbys possibly dropping to 5sm temporarily between 10/13z. Otherwise no other issues with drier air and generally light winds in place. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast for most if not all terminals. The lone exception may be MCB with vsbys possibly dropping to 5sm temporarily between 10/13z. Otherwise no other issues with drier air and generally light winds in place. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 60 BTR 69 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 60 ASD 68 89 72 88 / 0 0 20 70 MSY 73 89 76 90 / 0 10 10 80 GPT 70 87 74 86 / 0 10 40 80 PQL 66 89 72 88 / 0 20 40 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB