798 FXUS64 KLIX 091827 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 127 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Upper ridging off the Atlantic Coast and along the Pacific Coast. Upper low over Minnesota, with multiple shortwaves rotating around it, including one over northeast Texas. Earlier convection that was headed toward our Mississippi coastal counties has largely dissipated over the last 90 minutes. Our eyes turn toward the northwest, where a line of storms had moved into northwest Louisiana near Shreveport. This line of storms has also shown significant overall weakening in the last 90 minutes. On its current track, if it remains intact, it will reach our northwestern counties/parishes around 500 AM CDT. Temperatures early this morning ranged from the middle 70s to lower 80s, with dew points in the mid and upper 70s. Main question over the next 36 hours pertains to the when, where and how strong any thunderstorms will be. The current convection to our northwest, while moving into what should be more favorable conditions, it`s doing it at a diurnally unfavorable time. Most of the convection allowing models show the storms continuing to weaken, or dissipate, through sunrise. Most of those models also show convective redevelopment by mid to late morning along whatever boundary the current convection sets up, although with somewhat less areal coverage than the current activity. With CAPE values near 3000, moderate shear and lapse rates around 7C/km forecast for the midday hours, certainly some potential for storms to become severe, especially near and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor from about Interstate 55 eastward. Most or all of the storms should weaken or dissipate around sunset this evening, with much of the overnight hours being relatively precipitation free. Tuesday will see another round of showers or storms, likely focused near and to the south of any remnant boundary. That`s likely to favor the southern half of our area instead of the north for any strong to severe storms. However, even areas to the north of the boundary are likely to see some showers or storms, just not as intense. Instantaneous areal coverage may not get much above 40-50 percent on Tuesday, but for the 12 hour period as a whole, can`t really argue against categorical PoPs. With quite a bit more cloud cover than the last couple days, high temperatures likely to remain closer to 90 the next two days, with the threat of heat indices reaching 108 lower than the past day or two. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 After Tuesday`s convection, shortwave ridging attempts to build into the southeastern states briefly, with troughing over Texas. We never really get rid of the deeper moisture across most of the area, with precipitable water values remaining in the 1.7 to 1.9 range for much of the week. The exception would be the southwest Mississippi counties on Wednesday, where values fall below 1.5 inches briefly. While I would expect at least scattered showers and storms each day, the NBM PoPs look as if they may be 10 to 20 percent too high for much of the week. Won`t back them down quite yet, as the ECMWF is a bit more supportive of that level of PoPs, but something to monitor. With daily chances for showers and storms, holding high temperatures fairly close to normal (around 90) looks to be the way to go. Overnight lows will be a bit above normal, in the mid 70s, but if storms occur late enough in the day, a cold pool could drop overnight lows a bit below current forecast in some locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 All terminals are currently in VFR status and should remain so unless convection moves over. Convection should still begin to pop around the area rapid 22/23z but not sure how much coverage we will see. With that we do have tempos for TSRA but the greatest potential appears to be the terminals directly on the coast like MSY, NEW, GPT, and perhaps ASD. MCB even though not near the coast may also have a decent chance of seeing convection as the old outflow boundary from storms that were north earlier could fire up later today. Best chance for convection would possibly impact those terminals between 23 and 03z. Obviously if convection moves over any terminal both vsbys and cigs will drop to at least MVFR if not IFR and even LIFR. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Will allow the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines to run their course this morning, ending at 12z. We will assess the need each day for additional headlines during the evening hours, but at this time, it looks like wind speeds this evening should remain below 15 knots. The main concerns for marine operators will be the daily/nightly threat for thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and/or seas. Do not see any prolonged period over the next 5 days where thunderstorms will not be a threat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 88 68 90 / 60 80 30 70 BTR 74 89 72 91 / 50 70 30 80 ASD 73 89 70 91 / 50 80 40 80 MSY 77 90 76 91 / 40 70 40 90 GPT 73 88 73 89 / 70 80 60 80 PQL 72 90 71 90 / 80 80 60 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...CAB MARINE...RW