647 FXUS64 KLCH 051108 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Max heat indices top out in the 100 to 105F range through the weekend. Gradual increase over the next work week. - Weakness aloft to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Scattered to numerous likely Sun thru Tues. - When thunder roars, go indoors!! && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The dreary and humid Independence Day Holiday has come to an end. That doesn`t mean the fun is over, though! Holiday celebrations will continue through the weekend; let`s see what to expect. Weak high pressure ridge overhead continues to erode between wave to the west and expanding low (Tropical Depression 3) to the east. Subsidence between these two features should keep rain chances in check today. Anything that does develop should be isolated to widely scattered and diurnally driven rather than the widespread showery canopy we had on Friday. Subsidence should also result in a more broken sky today allowing for more sunshine to poke through. Highs in the mid 90s and HIs in the 100 to 105F range can be expected. For those out and about, please observe heat risk mitigation strategies for yourself and others. Upper low should expand and meander west by Sunday, setting up a stagnant pattern with weakness present over the northern Gulf states through the first part of the week. This opens the door for increases in afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Temps in the mid 90s are expected Sunday as the low is making its way over. By Monday with greater expected coverage of convection, temps should top out in the low to mid 90s. Max HIs each day will top out in the same range we`ve been seeing: 100 to 105F. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Upper weakness will be present as we transition to the longterm period. From Tue to Thu, the upper low meanders south towards south Texas before it washes out altogether later on Thursday. As it moves away from the northern Gulf, sfc high ridges across the northeast Gulf from east to west. This transitioning pattern should result in a gradual decrease in rainfall coverage from the middle week into the weekend. As such, decreases in rain-generated cloud cover will allow high temps into the mid to upper 90s each day. Maximum apparent temperatures through the longterm period will be dependent on which source region wins out: moisture fetch off the Gulf or dry, southwesterly flow off Texas. Guidance wavers between which vector the low levels will be pulling from. If we have more dry influence off Texas, that brings greater mixing, higher than forecast high Ts but lower overall HIs. A moisture-dominated fetch will result in lower overall High Ts, but greater daytime humidity and higher HIs. It is too early to know for certain which scenario we`ll see later in the week. Eventually we`ll get to Heat Advisory Criteria (Max Heat Indices greater than or equal to 108F). The end of the longterm could be that time! As always, focus on heat risk mitigating strategies. Summertime is a marathon, not a sprint! Stay prepared and vigilant over these long stretches of heat and humidity, no matter if you`re outdoors daily or just out at times. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Main issue in the near term is the patchy fog and low clouds at KAEX with occasional IFR conditions, The fog and low clouds are expected to lift by 05/14z. For the remainder of the day, mainly VFR conditions are expected with light winds. There is a small probability of seeing convection later this afternoon along any sea breeze that may form and therefore will have VCSH at KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA after 05/20-21z to handle this. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Expect to see a gradual return to typical summertime shower and storm activity from this weekend into the next work week. Weak surface high pressure meandering around the northwest Gulf today and early Sunday will keep seas low and rain chances fairly low. By Sunday afternoon and beyond, expect daily chances for scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms over coastal waters. Seas will remain low through the period as patterns stall and weakness remains overhead. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Weak surface high pressure moving around the northern Gulf will keep rain chances in check today with only a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain expected along and south of I-10. By later Sunday and into the work week, the pattern stalls out with weakness lingering overhead. This should result in a return of diurnally driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to start the work week. Daily minimum RH values in the 40 to 65 percent range can be expected. With little forcing, winds will also remain fairly low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 73 96 72 / 10 10 30 10 LCH 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 40 20 LFT 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 70 20 BPT 92 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...07