004 FXUS64 KLCH 252344 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms with torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds expected from this afternoon to Saturday. - Marginal risk of excessive rain for portions of the area today and Saturday. Expect highest totals along and south of I-10 today through Saturday. - Another heat wave develops rapidly Monday into Wednesday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Our main feature remains an unorganized tropical wave located in the central Gulf. This system will continue to impact our area with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be high with these systems and can quickly drop several inches of rain in short time frames. Built-up areas with poor drainage will be the most vulnerable to flash flooding, and we have a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across the region today and Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms could be on the stronger side, with RAP forecast CAPE values expected between 2000 - 3000 J/kg today and 1500 - 2000 J/kg on Saturday. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with these thunderstorms. However, flash flooding remains the main concern for today and Saturday. Areas along and south of I-10 are more likely to see heavy rain and thunderstorms with gusty winds, but areas north of the I-10 corridor could still see impacts. By Sunday, the remnants of the wave will be in central Texas, and high pressure will start to build again over the region. Before the ridge is able to suppress convection, the forecast will support typical summertime popup showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 We will start the workweek hot and humid as yet another heat wave sets up across the region. Surface high pressure will be settled into the eastern Gulf, pushing warm, moist tropical air north and driving our dew points into the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a strong ridge will be building overhead with 500 mb heights expected to be above 597 dm. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble probabilities put the likelihood of reaching 579 dm at the 500 mb heights near 100% on Monday, with ensemble tables highlighting the strength of this ridge with heights above the 99th percentile compared to our climatological norms. What this means is that even in the heart of summer, temperatures will be dangerously hot. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid-90s with heat index values near the 108 threshold. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will increase to the mid to upper 90s, and heat advisories should be expected. For central Louisiana and Texas, we cant rule out triple-digit highs with the NBM probabilities near 50%. The good news is this ridge wont be stuck overhead and will be sliding to the west, with the center of the ridge moving into central Texas by midweek. Still, this will be a dangerous situation as the heat will quickly build and heat precautions will be needed for people and pets next week. As the ridge shifts westward, rain chances will increase from east to west starting Tuesday, but decent rain chances really enter the forecast on Wednesday. For the second half of the week, an increase in cloud coverage will help moderate temperatures, but unfortunately, highs will still be in the 90s with heat index values in the triple digits. Later in the week, models have been consistent with forming a broad area of low pressure in the northern Gulf. The moisture from this system will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms, and it will be a feature to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Daytime convection has generally come to a close. A few isolated showers are still ongoing near Lower Acadiana and vicinity showers will be possible area wide during overnight hours. Scattered to numerous convection is expected once again during daytime hours, although timeframe is still somewhat nebulous. Prevailing TS/TSRA periods should be coming with later TAF issuances once timing is better nailed down. Cloud decks will remain rather low overnight in response to nearby tropical wave. Expect lower cloud decks in daytime hours and near to thunderstorms. Winds should prevail from the southwest for much of the period and could be gusty at times as tropical wave and sfc low begin phasing in the northwest Gulf overnight. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A small craft advisory will be in effect tonight due to sustained winds up to 25 knots from the south with gusts up to 30 knots. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will also impact our coastal waters through the weekend, bringing even higher gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Winds and waves will peak tonight as a tropical wave moves across the central Gulf. Background maximum wave heights up to 6 feet are possible with south winds up to 25 knots. By Saturday morning, the tropical wave will be in the western Gulf and will head into inland Texas. Conditions will rapidly improve, with waves dropping below 3 feet and winds dropping below 10 knots. For the rest of the weekend and the first half of the week, high pressure will lead to calm conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Humid and warm weather will continue, with minimum RH levels between 50% and 60% through Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring heavy rain tonight and Saturday, with gusty winds and lightning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 92 73 96 / 20 60 0 30 LCH 77 89 77 92 / 60 70 10 60 LFT 76 89 76 92 / 40 70 10 60 BPT 76 89 77 92 / 60 70 10 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ432-435-436- 452-455-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11