911 FXUS64 KSHV 141129 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 629 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Another quiet morning across the region. However, prevailing southerly flow has yielded another morning of low cloud development. In fact, cloud development has been much faster than yesterday morning, as stratus has already moved into the region. Most of these clouds will be across our East Texas zones, along and south of I-20, and across a good portion of North and Central Louisiana. These clouds should diminish by mid to late morning, but some cloud cover will remain today, as high clouds move into the area ahead of an approaching cool front. Ahead of that front, it will be breezy, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph. But, no Wind Advisory today, as sustained winds should stay below the sustained 20 mph advisory threshold. I decided to go a few degrees above guidance today based on recent trends, which will call for another day of afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s areawide. It`s possible we could see slightly warmer temps, mostly due to compressional heating, which is common ahead of an approaching cool front. By the late afternoon into the evening hours, the aforementioned cool front will move into our northwestern forecast zones and continue to push through the area during the overnight period into very early Tuesday morning. Clouds will be on the increase along and ahead of this boundary, but as of now, the forecast remains dry due to limited deep layer moisture.There is still some hint there could be just enough forcing and moisture to squeeze out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms along the front, but confidence remains low at this time. So, decided to go along with most of the guidance and keep the forecast dry. Behind the front, skies will clear, as NNE winds will bring much lower humidity values and slightly cooler temps into the region. Highs will likely stay in the 70s areawide on Tuesday, with dew points in the 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Surface high pressure will settle over the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Expect little cloud cover and light winds. Morning lows are forecasted to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work week with upper ridging over the region. But, expect a warming trend, with southerly winds returning as surface high pressure slides east of our forecast area. Highs on Thursday and Friday could approach 90 degrees in many locations. By Saturday, the upper ridge will push eastward into the SE CONUS. At the same time, a large closed upper trough will dive southward across the Great Basin Region into the Four Corners area of the SW CONUS. This will push a trough/cold front through the Central Plains into the Southern Plains. The ridge will stay firm across the SE CONUS during this period, which will stall the approaching front just to the northwest of our forecast area by Saturday evening. This proximity should be close enough for rain chances to return to portions of the region. The best chances will be across our northwestern zones, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor. This essentially includes extreme NE Texas, portions of Southwest Arkansas, and McCurtain County in SE Oklahoma. The ridge is expected to slide eastward by Sunday as the Great Basin upper trough ejects into the Central Plains. This will allow the front, or pre-frontal trough, to push more into the area late Sunday into Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase areawide during this period. There is no severe weather in the forecast at this time. However, the calendar is moving into our peak severe weather season from a climatological standpoint, so we can`t completely rule out hazardous weather with this system. /20/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 A mix of low level SCT/BKN/OVC currently across the airspace as the previously mentioned low clouds that were south of the airspace at the start of the last TAF period, have now spread north across the local terminals. As a result, a mix of MVFR and even brief periods of IFR will exist through the morning and even as deep as the early afternoon before lifting and scattering out. This will see a return of VFR and even a period of SKC/FEW through the mid afternoon. However, this will be brief as a frontal boundary approaches the northern airspace late this afternoon, allowing for an increase in clouds across the airspace into the evening and overnight. Not anticipating any convective impacts with the passing front. As the front approaches the terminals, local winds may briefly elevate as the boundary passes. KNAPP && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 62 79 53 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 87 62 76 50 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 84 51 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 87 57 76 50 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 88 57 76 47 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 87 58 77 53 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 88 58 77 51 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 87 62 79 54 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...53