435
FXUS64 KSHV 090259
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

As dry air holds the ArkLaTex firmly within its grasp, once again
the primary uncertainty this evening is just how cool our air
temperatures will become by daybreak tomorrow morning. Based on
guidance performance this morning and the present dew points at
area sites, trended 1-2 degrees cooler than guidance across the
region. North and northeasterly winds will decrease but do not
look to become completely calm. With these considerations taken
into account, lows now range from the upper 40s and lower 50s north
to the middle 50s south. Ingested the latest several hours worth
of temperature and dew point data and interpolated through to 12Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Dry and clement weather conditions will continue through the
middle of the week across the Four State Region. This is due to
post-frontal northeasterly winds that reinforce drier air with dew
points in the upper 40s/lower 50s. This, in combination with
surface ridging, will keep temperatures near-to-above normal as a
result under partly to mostly clear skies with maximums/minimums
in the mid-to-upper 80s/mid-to-upper 50s respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A quiet, dry weather pattern will continue into next week across
the Four State Region. This is due to a ridge axis that will
slowly drift east across the area through the end of the week.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue along the periphery of this
ridge through the weekend with surface winds beginning to return out
of the south allowing for some moisture to return behind the
50-degree isodrosotherm (will feel slightly stickier outside).
This ridge will be flattened by longwave troughing that shifts
southeast across the Midwest. Long-range guidance suggests another
frontal boundary with cooler air arriving early next week, but
until then, temperatures will gradually increase with
maximums/minimums in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lower 60s
respectively. Drought development will continue unabated through
the next seven days. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR flight conditions should continue to prevail areawide for the
next 24 hours with mostly clear skies expected at all terminals.
Some haze originating from wildfires in the Pacific Northwest
will continue to stream overhead, but significant visibility
reductions are not anticipated. Otherwise, northeasterly winds
will persist with sustained speeds generally remaining under 10
kts.

Nuttall

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  53  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  52  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  48  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  87  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09