314
FXUS64 KSHV 270006 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region
through the late afternoon, and into the early evening.
- Rain chances decrease for Sunday as the heat and humidity
return.
- A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of the Four State
Region beginning at 10 AM Sunday through 8 PM. Additional heat
products are likely this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the Four State Region
this afternoon as a surge of Gulf moisture works through. Though
much of the accumulation values to this point have been marginal,
there have been instances of a quick inch or more as a stronger
storm cluster advanced through west central and northwest
Louisiana. Scattered convective coverage is expected to continue
into the late afternoon, with potential that a few stray showers
carry over into the early evening. That being said, much of the
overnight should remain dry as rain chances will be on the decline
through Sunday.
The unfortunate side to a decline in rain opportunity is that as
the faucet turns off, the temperature rises with heat headlines
returning as early as tomorrow afternoon. Another Heat Advisory
has been issued for much of the Four State Region for Sunday as
heat indices will climb between 105-109 deg F. MaxT`s will also be
on the climb with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 90`s. As
mentioned, rain chances will be on the lower end tomorrow
afternoon, but non-zero with focus primarily across the far
southern zones as the Gulf sea breeze advances north around
lunchtime. How strong the boundary is will dictate if rain chances
get to the I-20 corridor. For now, not ruling out a stray shower
or two near the SHV/BC metro, but highest confidence remains
around the Toledo Bend vicinity.
Beyond Sunday, heat headlines will become the main focus as upper
ridging retrogrades from the SE CONUS and settles over the FA.
The influence of the strong ridge regime will allow for afternoon
highs to flirt with the triple digits through mid-week while heat
indices hold advisory criteria, if not even begin to enter
warning criteria (at or above 110 deg F). This threshold will need
to be monitored closely in the coming days as present heat
products may need to be upgraded. Much of this will depend on how
much dew point temperatures mix out through the afternoon. Bottom
line is, the heat returns, and following heat safety protocol
will be important. The good news in all of this is, is that
marginal rain chances return to portions of the region as early as
Wednesday afternoon, with increasing odds through Thursday.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
VFR conditions will continue this evening through the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Isolated convection will linger near
ELD/MLU through 01Z this evening before diminishing, although
elevated cigs from the earlier convection should persist
overnight across the region. Some IFR/low MVFR cigs may develop
by/shortly before daybreak Sunday over portions of Deep E TX and N
LA, before eventually lifting/scattering out by mid to late
morning. A scattered cu field will develop by late morning and
persist through the afternoon, although a weak seabreeze may move
inland from the SE TX/SW LA coast and could possible affect LFK
after 20Z, before diminishing by the end of the TAF period.
However, low confidence precludes VCTS mention at the LFK
terminal attm, and will re-evaluate for the 06Z TAF issuance. S
winds 5-9kts tonight will become more SSW after 15Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 97 78 99 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 75 97 77 100 / 20 10 0 0
DEQ 73 93 73 97 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 76 99 77 102 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 74 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 75 95 76 98 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 75 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 74 95 74 98 / 20 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ059-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15