847
FXUS64 KSHV 241347
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
747 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Zonal flow aloft to maintain mostly cloudy skies across the region
today. At the surface, southeast winds up to 10 mph will advect
moisture northward allowing dewpoint values to increase to the
lower to mid 60s across mainly east and northeast Texas with
slightly lesser values elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures will
climb into the mid to upper 60s across most locations.

A surface boundary attached to a closed low across the Red River
Valley of north Texas will gradually shift south throughout the
day. Widespread showers expected to develop along and ahead of the
front across the I-30 corridor this morning, limiting afternoon
highs in these areas to the mid to upper 50s. As the front moves
across the ArkLaTex today, instability is forecast to increase due
to falling heights fall aloft as a fairly amplified trough
deepens across central Texas. A band of widespread convection is
expected this evening encompassing most of east and northeast
Texas into southwest Arkansas. The combination of increased lapse
rates and substantial moisture convergence along the frontal
boundary will generate a few thunderstorms cells capable of
producing strong wind gusts across mainly across east Texas later
this evening.

High res models suggest that intensity of convection to begin to
diminish shortly after midnight as the front moves into an area
with lower dewpoint values across north Louisiana.

700mb trough to lag behind departing upper-level trough on
Wednesday, maintaining cloudy skies and increased chances for
showers. High temperatures on Wednesday to average in the 60s.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

A co-located surface and upper-level low will barrel east across
Oklahoma on Wednesday night into Thursday. As the low taps into
an airmass with dewpoint values in the lower to mid 60s,
convection is forecast to initiate across the heart of the
ArkLaTex from East Texas into South Arkansas during the time of
peak heating on Thursday afternoon. Some storms could become
severe during the evening mainly across east and northeast Texas
with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Conditions
forecast to improve overnight Thursday night as the area of low
pressure ejects northeast, leaving a weak frontal boundary in its
wake. With the boundary stretching across north Louisiana into
deep East Texas and southwest flow aloft persisting through the
weekend, scattered showers will remain possible each day. By early
next week, weak northwest flow is forecast to bring dry
conditions to the region. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

For the 24/12z TAFs...Despite a few widely scattered showers
across the region, VFR conditions remain at all sites. However,
expect reduced flight conditions through the period as showers
and thunderstorms slowly move across the airspace from the west
ahead of cool front. Could see some brief gusty winds with the
stronger storms. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 24 2024

There is a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds later today into tonight. However,
spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  56  66  54 /  60  80  40  10
MLU  69  52  65  56 /  10  50  60  30
DEQ  58  50  60  49 / 100  90  50  20
TXK  64  55  64  53 /  90  90  40  20
ELD  65  51  62  51 /  60  80  60  20
TYR  68  55  64  52 /  90  90  20  10
GGG  68  54  65  52 /  70  90  40  10
LFK  71  56  67  55 /  50  80  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20