700 FXUS64 KLIX 252349 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 649 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Low pressure/inverted trough continuing to move westward over the Gulf, currently southwest of Morgan City. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving northwestward with most near and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors. Certainly still potential for areas south of that, but not imminent. A little more wind than has been the case the last several days, with winds around 15 mph and gusts to around 25 mph. Temperatures away from precipitation running from mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values near 105 degrees in the hotter spots. Trough will move to the Texas coast by Saturday morning as an upper ridge moves westward. By Saturday morning, the ridge will be centered over South Carolina, and by Sunday morning over Georgia. Precipitable water values will drop a bit to 2.1 inches by tomorrow, which should lead to somewhat less instantaneous areal coverage of showers and storms, but the 12 hour PoP will likely still need to be 60 percent or higher for much of the area. High temperatures should more uniformly reach the lower 90s tomorrow, with heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria. Will hold off on issuing an advisory for now, as confidence not quite high enough to justify advisory yet. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Drier air still scheduled to arrive Sunday as ridging continues to move westward. Ridge center will be over Alabama Sunday afternoon, northern Mississippi on Monday, and near Tulsa by Wednesday. That will be far enough west to allow another easterly wave to transit the northern Gulf during the second half of the workweek. Precipitable water values are expected to fall into the 1.6 to 1.8 range for the early part of the week, before rebounding to 2.25 inches on Wednesday. This will mean a decrease in areal coverage of thunderstorms beginning on Sunday. Instantaneous areal coverage probably won`t be much more than 20 percent or so on Sunday, with 12 hourly PoPs of 20 to 40 percent, which may be a bit high. For Monday and Tuesday, convection should be suppressed even further, with not much more than 20 percent for the day, if that much. By Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances will increase into the 40 to 60 percent range again. With the drier weather for Sunday through Tuesday, high temperatures will increase again. Highs are expected to be in the mid 90s across most of the area on Sunday. The ridge being more fully over the area Monday should allow highs in the upper 90s, especially if surface winds maintain a northerly component. Similar highs are expected on Tuesday. It should be noted that 100 degree temperatures aren`t out of the question either Monday or Tuesday in a few areas. Pretty much the only question for Sunday through Tuesday are what flavor of heat headlines are necessary. Sunday should be almost entirely advisory criteria, but Monday and Tuesday may necessitate Extreme Heat Warnings, especially along the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. We would probably start issuing some of those products tomorrow afternoon. The heat should break with the arrival of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Center of weak low pressure is now somewhere near KLCH and continuing to work westward. Low level southerly flow continues to transport moisture northward into the area with scattered SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR ceilings, IFR or lower visibilities and a few wind gusts to 30 knots where there are direct impacts. Will carry TEMPO at all terminals for the next few hours, but with the impending loss of heating, expect a significant diminishing trend over the next 2-3 hours. There wil be at least some potential for low ceilings/visibilities around sunrise, but at present, the only terminal that has restrictions mentioned is MVFR at KMCB. Expect MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops at mid-morning. Question then becomes how much SHRA/TSRA development we get tomorrow afternoon. For now, have included TEMPO for tomorrow afternoon, but that may be overstating things a bit. Most or all convection tomorrow should dissipate by sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Earlier issuance included Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the open waters until midnight CDT. Somewhat borderline for the sounds, and did not carry there. Wind speeds should diminish this evening, and then remain near or below 10 knots for much of the remainder of the forecast period outside of thunderstorms. Areal coverage of storms will be much lower beyond tomorrow afternoon, with not much more than isolated storms Sunday through Tuesday. The second half of the workweek next week will see more widespread coverage of storms than the first half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 90 73 93 / 40 70 0 20 BTR 76 91 76 94 / 30 80 0 40 ASD 75 91 74 93 / 30 70 10 20 MSY 79 92 79 94 / 30 80 10 40 GPT 77 89 77 92 / 60 60 10 20 PQL 76 91 75 94 / 50 60 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW