536 FXUS64 KLCH 042320 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will persist through Saturday with heat index values ranging from near 100 to 106. - A few showers and thunderstorms will pop up sporadically mainly around the Atchafalaya basin each afternoon through Saturday. - Precipitation chances increase Sunday through mid week as a weak frontal boundary along with a couple of upper level disturbances move through the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 A few, very isolated showers, noted on radar this afternoon around the Atchafalaya basin which is closer to troffing over the Northeastern gulf. Ridging building into the region from south Texas will aid in keeping precipitation very limited to non existent elsewhere across the region with any ongoing convection diminishing by around sunset. The building ridge will keep PoPs limited to 30% or less across the region Thursday through Saturday while also allowing heat indices to climb above 100 each afternoon. Forecast values are presently just below heat advisory criteria and an advisory for parts of central Louisiana and interior SE Texas could become necessary if models trend warmer in subsequent forecast packages. Overnight lows will only fall back into the mid to upper 70s offering little relief from early summer heat. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 A weak frontal boundary and deep moisture will stall across the region Sunday afternoon providing a source of lift for increasing thunderstorms. This will be followed by at least two upper level disturbances wrapping around the broader upper trof over the central U.S. which will keep precipitation chances elevated Monday through the middle of next week. The overcast skies and rain will hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Overall VFR conditions expected to hold in place for the remainder of the TAF cycle. There are a few showers in the vicinity of the Acadiana terminals which are expected to have, if any, little impacts to conditions. Showers to taper tonight with mild conditions. Areas of fog are not out of the realm of possibility overnight, however with low confidence in location, reduced VIS not in TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through the middle of next week. A few showers and thunderstorms will pop up sporadically through the day Friday and Saturday with higher rain chances expected beginning Sunday through the middle of the week as a couple of upper level disturbances move across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 92 72 94 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 74 89 75 90 / 0 10 0 20 LFT 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 0 30 BPT 74 91 75 92 / 10 10 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87