970
FXUS64 KLCH 082323
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A cold front is pushing south across the northern gulf waters
while Hurricane Milton continues moving toward Florida in the
southern Gulf.

A much drier airmass continues to filter into SE TX and SW LA this
afternoon with relative humidity values falling into the 20s and
30s across the area. After sunset temps will fall through the
night and fall down into the 50s by sunrise Tuesday which will be
5 degrees or more below climo norms for the date.

High pressure will gradually shift from the Mississippi Valley
today to the Atlantic coast by Thursday night. This will keep the
dry and north-northeast flow in place. No rain is anticipated with
temperatures running around or slightly below normal through the
end of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Friday the pattern of dry conditions persists onward through the
weekend. Split flow between the subtropical and northern jet will
allow for brief zonal flow along the northern Gulf Coast which
begins to deepen overnight as a weak positively tilted short waves
skirts across the Southern Plains. This feature will remain elevated
through Saturday as the pattern modifies over Louisiana. Here, the
most recent low level guidance indicates modest ridging remaining in
place to the surface.

Hereafter, a parent longwave trof over Ontario will begin to move
south over the New England region. This shift helps merge the gap
between the subtropical jet and northern stream flow across the
Great Lakes through remainder of the weekend into the early work
week ahead. With SETX / SWLA being on the SW periphery deepening
trof pattern, speed convergence over the Midwest and Central plains
should surge another dry cold front over area Monday. The front will
gradually slow offshore and high pressure continues to build toward
the Gulf Coast. This forecast is congruent with the latest Climate
Prediction Centers indicating below normal precipitation is likely
through the middle of the month.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Light north winds and clear skies will prevail throughout the
forecast period. No issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A fairly tight pressure gradient will exist between high pressure
to the north and Hurricane Milton to the south tonight into
Tuesday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution into
tomorrow.

Waves will be a concern for the next few days as swells from
Hurricane Milton being to impact the region. With waves building
up to 5 feet Tuesday night. At the same time, the period will
increase to 9 to 11. Waves will begin to diminish on Thursday,
with waves dropping to 2 feet and staying around that level
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  58  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  58  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  58  87  60  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17