107
FXUS63 KJKL 230503
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1203 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with
  colder weather expected to arrive early next week.

- Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

Continuing to monitor the precipitation coverage this evening.
Ended up doing some pop adjustments based on the current trends
and hi-res models. Ended up adjusting throughout the rest of the
night and into the first part of tomorrow as well. Ran weather
grids to match as well. Also loaded in the latest observations to
see how temperature drops were doing now that thicker cloud cover
and some showers were ongoing. It seems that temperatures are
starting to moderate more, so we may have hit our overnight lows
already in some of the deeper valley locations in the NE. The
models are continuing to suggest less llvl wind sheer overnight
compared to their earlier solutions. In response to this, did
increase surface winds just a bit overnight - which also matches
ongoing trends, especially in the SW. All updates have been
published and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

Forecast seems to be in relatively good shape right now. MVFR and
lower clouds are continuing to spread over much of eastern
Kentucky. Initial temperatures in the eastern valleys have started
to drop, but expect them to level out as clouds continue to move
in over the next few hours. Loaded in the latest observational
temperatures and tried to attenuate the falling temps into the
ongoing forecast for cloud cover and moderating temps overnight.
It remains breezy in the SW counties as of this update time, and
there is some possibility this can continue into the overnight,
especially with any showers that occur. Will continue to monitor
shower activity, and update timing/pop grids as needed over the
next few hours. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

West-northwesterly flow aloft will gradually become more
northwesterly by Tuesday night as upper ridging builds across the
south-central CONUS. This will result in a continuous warming trend
through the period, both for high and low temperatures.

Warm front continues to move northeast aloft over the area, but will
not completely bring the entire CWA under the warm sector at the
surface until Tuesday. Clouds will increase through tonight and
persist through Tuesday, with forecast soundings showing a saturated
layer beneath a strong subsidence inversion caused by the strong
upper ridging. This ridging will cap the saturated layer and keep
any rainfall fairly limited with regards to QPF, closer to drizzle
or brief periods of light rain showers. Warmth and moisture pools
ahead of an approaching frontal passage that will likely clear the
area to the south by, or toward the end, of the short-term period
Wednesday morning, bringing a temporary end to light rain/drizzle
chances.

With warm advection increasing through the period and moving over a
dry air mass in the lowest levels, expect a significant temperature
discrepancy for lows tonight, with the eastern sheltered valleys
falling into the 30s while 40s are more likely on ridgetops and west
of Interstate 75. As the entire area comes under the influence of
the warm sector Tuesday, highs should make the mid to upper 50s
northeast to lower 60s south and west, even with significant cloud
cover and light rain/drizzle. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
lower 40s north to lower 50s south, with cooler air moving south
into the area behind the weak cold frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

The first several days of the long term period will feature a
frontal boundary wavering back and forth over the region. This may
result in rain or drizzle at times, but with west to northwest
upper level flow and a lack of significant systems otherwise, any
precip should be relatively light. The frontal position will be a
key factor in temperatures. Latest model runs show it just to our
south at dawn on Wednesday, then progressing north and east
through the area as a warm front on Wednesday night, leaving us in
a mild air mass to start the day on Christmas. Models have now
trended cooler later on Christmas day in our northern counties as
the front drops back south as a cold front and then stalls over
KY. There is potential for a forecast temperature bust on
Christmas due to the exact position of the front being critical.
Regardless of how far south the front makes it, it is still
forecast to shift north and east as a warm front Christmas night
and Friday, putting us back into an unseasonably mild air mass as
we progress into the weekend.

Definitive change is still on course later in the weekend. Pattern
amplification is expected as an upper trough drops southeast over
the eastern CONUS early in the new week, with a closed low
developing and tracking somewhere through the region of the Great
Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. This allows a substantial
cold front to pass through our area on Saturday night or Sunday
(there`s still timing uncertainty in models), with winter
temperatures arriving Sunday and carrying forward. At this time it
would appear that significant precipitation associated with the
front would be tapering off before the atmosphere becomes cold
enough to support snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

With strong return flow, BKN to OVC MVFR CIGS have taken over at
all TAF sites. Scattered rain showers are expected throughout the
night, with better chances at KSYM and KSJS over the next few
hours. Kept VCSH to account for this. Rain should taper off during
the early afternoon hours Tuesday, but only briefly. An incoming
cold front will increase rain chances again late Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. Unfortunately with this pattern, CIGS don`t stand
much chance for improvement. In fact, by this evening, it`s likely
that all TAF sites will have dropped below IFR. Winds are also a
concern. Models are continuing to lesson the amount of llvl wind
sheer, so went ahead and removed it for most of the TAF sites. None
of the TAF sites are picking up on any WS so far, so feel this is
the right move. That being said, stronger wind gusts are still
being felt at SME, and prevailing winds are still being felt at
most TAF sites. In addition, any shower that moves through could
easily transfer some higher gusts down to the surface. Increased
the surface winds a bit from the previous forecast to hopefully
account for this shift.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW