633 FXUS63 KJKL 110602 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 202 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A series of cold fronts will bring a potential of showers and thunderstorms, with precipitation from the first front affecting the area at times mainly into Friday, and a good potential of more rain with a second front Monday and Monday night. - Temperature swings can be expected over the next week due to the quick moving nature of significant weather systems. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025 Updated potential thunder grids and reran weather grids. Also refreshed T/Td grids with latest obs. No major changes to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025 01Z sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure slowly pivoting through eastern Kentucky tonight. This latest push brought scattered strong to severe storms to the area, just after peak heating, with numerous reports of hail up to the size of quarters and a few trees blown down. Now that the instability has waned look for a lull in activity through the rest of the evening before showers and a potential for storms redevelop. Currently, temperatures are rather mild across the area - running in the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints have come up dramatically from 24 hours ago and are now generally ranging from the low 40s north to the upper 40s southeast. Have updated the forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids along with a lull in the PoPs and thunder into the start of the overnight per radar and CAMs guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO. UPDATE Issued at 427 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025 Issued a quick update to raise PoPs area-wide in response to radar trends over the last couple of hours. This trend continues into the evening before blending back in to the previous PoPs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025 Current surface analysis is rather active as a surface low is working out of the Central Plains toward the Eastern Seaboard. The occluding low is currently centered over southern Iowa; however, the quasi-stationary/warm front is extended eastward toward the Ohio Valley. The showers this morning were associated with the warm front lifting through the CWA. Behind the exiting warm front, the CWA has shifted into the regime of the warm sector which will bring the daytime highs into the low to mid-60s. Lastly, the cold front is draped southwestward into Missouri and back toward the Colorado High Plains. The upper-level trough responsible for the surface low is forecast to continue to dive southeast with the area situated under the left exit region of the upper-level jet. As that upper-level jet moves over the area overnight into early Friday morning the surface low will dive southeast into the region with the trailing cold front. The cold front is expected to stay to the south of the the CWA but the surface low itself will cross into the CWA and as that occurs, increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight tonight into Friday morning. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for the entire forecast area but in the early afternoon update, the SPC introduced a Slight Risk to portions of Wayne and McCreary Counties. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible as the area has largely been able to clear out after this morning`s shower activity but due to the timing of the low moving through the area, the severe threat should be limited. As the upper-level trough pivots eastward and the forcing moves with it, the surface low will eject out of the area slowly Friday morning/afternoon. Surface high pressure will build into the region throughout the day Friday but low-level moisture will keep cloud cover over the area. The immense cloud cover and CAA, behind the exiting system, will favor cooler temperatures on Friday; therefore, highs will only climb into the low to mid-50s. Continued clearing skies are expected for Friday night going into Saturday. However, the timing of the clouds exiting and peak cooling can and will present an issue for the development of frost overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Current guidance and forecast grids represent the area mostly under cloud cover, however, areas along and west of the I-75 corridor are forecast to be cloud-free or have limited clouds and therefore, frost development will be possible into Saturday morning. Otherwise, after the system exits late Friday morning, surface high pressure will build into the region and remain in place through the remainder of the period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025 A significant upper level trough will be over the far eastern CONUS at the start of the long term period, with its axis to our east along or near the Eastern Seaboard. Most precip should have also advanced to our east with the trough. However, we should still be in a cool, upslope low level flow will be diminishing Saturday morning. This may keep low clouds and a few sprinkles lingering in our far eastern counties. Surface high pressure building in from the west as the upper trough shifts further east should bring dry weather area wide by late Saturday. The surface high is expected to pass over on Saturday night with light winds. Decreasing clouds with the cool and dry air mass in place will probably result in frost once again for much of the area by dawn on Sunday. The eastward departure of the surface high on Sunday combined with upper level ridging building in from the west will result in a sizable daytime warm-up. A progressive pattern will continue, and the next upper level trough is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward from the northern and central plains on Sunday night to the Great Lakes Monday night. An associated surface low will send a cold front southeast toward our area on Monday, and then passing through on Monday night. Moisture return will be cut short by the fast moving system, but the system itself may be strong enough to overcome the limited moisture and bring showers/thunderstorms. The current forecast POP peaks in the chance category Monday night. Another chilly air mass by mid-April standards arrives behind the system`s cold front for midweek, with a potential for more frost by dawn on Wednesday, and again on Thursday, for some places. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025 A surface low continues to move across the area with scattered showers that will affect the terminals overnight. Conditions are currently VFR with light winds. CIGs are expected to lower over the next several hours into MVFR. Showers and a thunderstorm or two are expected to move into the region with lower CIGs persisting into the day Friday. These low CIGs and pcpn chances will improve slowly from west to east, mainly after 20Z. KSJS may be the slowest to clear out and may do so after the period. Winds will remain light and variable favoring the northerly direction later today. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...HAL/CMC AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC