161 FXUS63 KJKL 101832 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be warming to above normal from midweek onwards. - Increasingly unsettled weather is expected later this week through early next week, with showers and thunderstorms likely each day. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 228 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025 18Z satellite shows a CU-field developing across BGM`s area in Central New York, south and west through eastern Kentucky and down into southern portions of MEG`s CWA. This CU-field has also produced light showers as far south as RLX. Light isolated showers continue to be possible now through 00Z or so, as a weakening cold front passes across the area. Some experimental short term models such as the MPAS-HT-NSSL and the RRFS-EMC depict "popcorn-like" showers embedded in a CU-field mainly along and north of the KY-80/Hal-Roger Parkway. HREF Ensemble Probabilities for seeing over 0.01 inches with these showers remain around 10-20 percent, indicative of the low end chance. RAP Soundings this morning showed limited CAPE and Equilibrium Levels will remain to warm or too low for significant ice crystal development, which will hinder any chances of lightning with these showers. Limited vorticity at 700-mb supports the idea of this cold front weakening as it passes through the area, and any showers that result, lacking vertical depth. Temperatures currently in the upper 70s to near 80 may increase another 1 to 2 degrees before the cooling down for the evening. Tonight, skies will clear behind the frontal passage, as rising heights and high pressure build into the region. The combination of light and variable winds, clearing skies, compounded with recent rainfall will aid in fog development. Valleys will probably see fog this evening, with some areas of dense fog overnight. Temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday, high pressure continues to build into the region, with sunny skies and above normal temperatures, in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s. While fog may develop again Wednesday night, it may not be as bad as tonight`s fog. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025 Surface high pressure will be present through the early part of the period leading to dry weather and warming temperatures. At this same time, an upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop over the Ozarks and slowly meander northeast toward the Commonwealth through the day Friday. The trough appears to get caught between two, much stronger ridges and the trough stalls out for the weekend over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the trough stalls out, southwesterly flow associated with the trough will advect warmer temperatures into the region leading to highs in the mid to upper- 80s and maybe a few 90s for Friday through the weekend. Accompanying the warmer temperatures, increased moisture advection coupled with lift from the trough, increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday afternoon through the end of the period. Forecast soundings through the weekend have a tall, skinny CAPE profile with PWs approaching the 2.00" mark which is says that any shower or storm that develops will likely be efficient and bring heavy rainfall and very localized hydro issues in places that see multiple rounds of showers or storms. Fortunately or unfortunately, bulk shear values are pretty low which means limited severe storm potential but also means that storm motions will be minimal to almost nonexistent. Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by increasing shower and thunderstorms chances. Also, the forecast area will be returning to more seasonal temperature norms as highs will climb into the mid to upper-80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper- 60s to the low-70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025 Current satellite shows a CU deck, generally ranging between 035 and 050 developing across eastern Kentucky in wake of a passing, weakening cold front. Some isolated showers will be possible within this CU field through 00Z. Skies will then clear, with VFR prevailing through ~ 04Z this evening. FG will develop in valley locations around or after 04Z and last through 13Z. Some areas of fog may be dense. TAFs reflect the reduction in VIS, with conditions approaching airport minimums at times. After the fog mixes out Wednesday morning (~ 13-15Z), clearing skies will remain, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GINNICK