344 FXUS63 KLMK 090702 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder expected this morning in area west of I-65. * Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a risk of severe storms east of I-65. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main severe weather threats. * Drier weather expected for Tuesday through Thursday. Unsettled weather likely Friday through the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Early morning satellite and surface observations reveal mostly clear skies across central and eastern KY. Across western KY and southern Indiana, mid-high level cloud cover streaming off convection to our west was noted. Under the clear skies, temperatures were in the lower 60s across the region. With a stronger southerly flow, some upper 60s/lower 70s were still noted over far western KY. Area radars were quiet across our part of the Ohio Valley. However, regional radars show a line of convection stretching from southern IL into SE MO and far WKY. Recent volume scans out of PAH/VWX radars show the convection becoming outflow dominant with a gust front extending eastward out of the convection. Favorable VWP profiles for organized convection were present in the PAH VWP. However, this convection is transversing a wedge of instability maximized near the OH/MS river confluence. Dewpoints drop off significantly as you move further into WKY so this convection is likely to diminish intensity over the next few hours, but it may bring some rainfall to our NW and far western counties prior to sunrise. Elsewhere, dry and quiet weather is expected through sunrise with temps remaining in the lower 60s. A few valley spots out east may drop into the upper 50s if they can sufficiently decouple. For today, ongoing convection across southern IL/SE MO/WKY is expected to be in our western counties after sunrise. This convection may hold together as it approaches the I-65 corridor by mid-late morning. As this convection pushes east of the I-65 corridor, moderate boundary layer heating and destabilization is expected across east-central and eastern KY this afternoon. Modest instability may develop across the region along with marginal shear profiles. In general, there is a risk of storms becoming severe this afternoon, mainly in areas east of I-65. The strongest cells would be capable of heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the 50-60 mph range. Some isolated marginally severe hail is also possible, but only within the strongest cores. Highs on the day will generally be in the upper 70s, though a few spots down near Lake Cumberland could hit 80 prior to storms moving in. For tonight, ongoing afternoon convection is expected to push east of our region by early evening. Actual cold front is then expected to push through the region this evening with little fanfare. Drier and cooler air will then filter into the area with skies clearing out. However, with the upper level cyclonic flow pivoting into the region, another round of high altitude smoke will likely pivot into the region from the Midwest late tonight resulting in high level haze. Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the middle to upper 50s. In the early morning, a cold front will enter the region from the northwest moving southeast. Along and ahead of the cold front, a line of showers and storms will also move through. The line of showers will move into southern Indiana around 12Z. Towards the afternoon, the upper trough will begin to swing over the region and mid-level flow will increase allowing for storms to develop along and east of I-65. SBCAPE over this region will increase to about 1200-1400J/kg in the afternoon and there will be about 30-35kts of deep layer shear, enough to sustain storms for marginal organization. Scattered strong to damaging winds will be possible, along with hail, lightning, and heavy rain. Low level shear is quite weak, therefore the tornado threat is very low. The line of showers will push east of the region by sunset. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Tuesday through Thursday Night... Upper level troughing will be overhead on Tuesday but heights are expected to rise late Tuesday as the flow becomes quasi-zonal through mid-week. High pressure at the surface will dominate our weather bringing cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather through at least Thursday. Highs Tuesday will largely be in the upper 70s, though a few spots may touch 80. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to drop into the middle 50s. As thickness values rise on Wednesday, so will surface temperatures. Highs Wednesday will likely top out in the 80-85 degree range with overnight lows back in the upper 50s to around 60. Highs on Thursday look to warm back into the middle-upper 80s. Overall, generally pleasant conditions for early June in the Ohio Valley. Friday through Sunday... Heading into the late week, the upper level pattern becomes a bit more complex. Zonal flow aloft is expected across much of the northern half of the CONUS while a mid-level trough axis develops across the southern Plains. This upper trough looks to close off by late Friday across the lower MS Valley and then slowly migrate east- northeast into the Ohio Valley for the weekend. As this occurs, a decent fetch of deep moisture off the Gulf will advect northward with precipitable water values increasing back to nearly 2 inches by Sat/Sun. With the upper troughing moving into the region, periods of showers and storms look likely from Friday through Sunday. Given the expected moisture and daytime heating, we`ll likely generate instability for thunderstorms. Overall shear values remain quite weak for Friday and Saturday, though the upper flow becomes a bit stronger by Sunday which could result in some storms approaching severe limits. The larger issue here will likely be heavy rainfall and possible hydro issues in spots. Look for daytime highs in this period to average in the middle 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR and mostly clear skies will start off this TAF period. A cold front will push into the region later today and ongoing convection within the pre-frontal trough axis will move into the region later this morning affecting KSDF and possibly KBWG. As the pre-frontal trough axis moves through the region by mid-late morning, additional convective development is expected across central-eastern KY through the afternoon with improving conditions by evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible as the storms move through the terminals. For this forecast, have generally attempted to time in things with a bit more detail. Actual front will push through the region this evening with possibly some scattered convection along it, though coverage looks to sparse to mention in TAF. The good news is that very good aviation conditions are expected Monday night through the middle of the week. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ