754 FXUS63 KLMK 110509 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 109 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Shower and storm chances increase again early next week as cold front approaches the region. Severe weather chances are unlikely. * Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected all week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Well it has been (literally) rinse and repeat these evenings with isolated showers popping up in the late afternoon and evening and then dissipating at sunset. Tonight is no different, a typical summertime pattern. Radar and skies will continue to clear over the next hour or two and remain clear overnight. Some patchy fog is possible in areas that saw a shower this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 An upper ridge sits over the Upper Plains and northern Midwest with upper ridging over the West and East Coasts. The Lower Ohio Valley remains under the western side of the East Coast ridge with surface high pressure still parked to our east, off the Atlantic Coast, and low pressure to our west. This continues to keep our winds light and generally out of the south, but with some variability. Scattered cumulus is currently covering the CWA. Isolated showers are again expected this afternoon and evening, but the mid-level subsidence is expected to keep these showers in check with limited growth. Tonight, expect nearly the same conditions as the last few nights. Cumulus will dissipate early as winds ease to near calm. Temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog is possible, mainly in southern Indiana and the Lake Cumberland area. Tomorrow, the upper ridge will continue to slowly move eastward. The surface high to our east helps to bring more moisture into the CWA. Dew points climb into the upper 60s to low 70s as precipitable water values begin climbing ahead of the cold front to our northwest and ahead of the surge from the south, leaving PWATs around 1.25-1.5" across the CWA. Isolated pulse convection is likely to continue over the CWA, but there will likely be increased chances that work north out of Tennessee. The mid-level subsidence will still help to limit development. Mostly sunny skies between diurnal cumulus will lead to highs in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Southern Indiana and central Kentucky will find itself trapped in the middle of an approaching upper trough/cold front from the northwest and surging moisture from the south. Most of the moisture can be seen flowing north as PWATs increase to 1.8-2.25" over much of central Kentucky much of Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be some pooling of moisture ahead of the front across Indiana. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase with the added moisture and with the upper ridge departing the region, the subsidence will begin to weaken, allowing taller storms to develop. We still lack much in the way of shear, so the severe threat remains limited. The high PWATs could lead to flooding concerns with efficient rainfall. By Thursday, the cold front is expected to drop into the CWA as it flattens before rocking to the east and allowing moisture to build back farther north into Indiana on Friday. Southern Kentucky will see PWATs near 2" during this time with the highest values to the west. As with typical summer time convection, expect a diurnal enhancement with showers and thunderstorms being isolated to scattered in nature. Temperatures remain consistent with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. By the weekend the front pushes off to the north, but the surface high over the Southeast fueling the region with moisture remains in place, keeping daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances in place. The best chances will remain over southern and eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 VFR conditions are across the terminals this morning, and expect VFR to continue for today. As we heat up during the day, expect a diurnal cu field to develop. Winds remain rather light today, but generally will be from the south. A few isolated showers are possible, but coverage will not be enough to be worth mentioning in TAFs. Expect clouds to clear by this evening, with winds becoming light and variable for the overnight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRW SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...CJP