840 FXUS63 KPAH 021824 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 124 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy skies from Canadian wildfire smoke will continue through tonight, then gradually diminish on Tuesday. - A return to unsettled weather arrives Wednesday and will continue through next weekend. There will be a daily chance (40-70%) of thunderstorms each day during this period. - While the severe weather potential remains low during this time, locally heavy rain of 1.5 to 3.0 inches is forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches possible in southeast Missouri. - Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Wednesday, then trend slightly below normal during the second half of the week due to thunderstorm coverage and additional cloud cover. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 H5 ridging and surface high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions in place across the region through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal. Ongoing high-level wildfire smoke from Canada will persist through the afternoon into tonight, but will finally diminish by Tuesday. A turn to unsettled weather will begin Wednesday and looks to continue through the weekend. This will be caused by a frontal boundary that will push southeast into the area and then stall out from southwest to northeast through the heart of the forecast area. This will result in a daily chance (40-80%) of thunderstorms during this time. While the potential for severe thunderstorms remains low/uncertain, the risk for areas of potential flooding from training convection appears to be increasing. Aiding in the flooding risk will be elevated PWAT values from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific Ocean being drawn northeast into the region ahead of the frontal boundary. This extra moisture will allow for efficient rainfall processes and higher totals. The latest QPF shows a broad brush of 1.5 to 3.0" over the area between Wednesday and Sunday, with locally higher totals up to 4.0" in southeast Missouri. While the rainfall will be spread out over several days, the risk of localized flooding will rise as rain continues to fall over saturated ground. Temperatures will trend slightly lower during this period due to clouds and rainfall coverage. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The TAFs are VFR. Hazy skies from Canadian wildfire smoke will gradually dissipate overnight into Tuesday, with only FEW-SCT CU development underneath this afternoon (bases will be around 4000ft). Addition CU development is expected with heating of the day Tuesday, after 15z or so. Steady S to SE winds AOA 6-10 kts will diminish overnight, then pick up again after 15z Tuesday from the south. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS