453
FXUS63 KPAH 021014
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
514 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies from the Canadian wildfire smoke will continue
  today, but improvement is likely on Tuesday.

- Rain chances remain suppressed until Wednesday with daily
  showers and thunderstorms continuing into the weekend.

- Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s trend more seasonable
  during the latter half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Sfc high pressure will push more east across the Mid Atlantic region
with southerly flow causing a gradual increase in both the heat and
humidity through the middle of the week. Patchy fog remains possible
this morning in the wake of a stalled sfc front lifting out, mainly
across portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky where
dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. Hazy skies will also be
probable again due to the Canadian wildfire smoke, but
improvement is expected on Tuesday due to height rises aloft.
As the pressure gradient tightens, winds turn more breezy with
wind gusts between 20 to 25 mph possible Tuesday afternoon.
Pcpn chances remain suppressed until Wednesday when a series of
500 mb shortwaves begin ejecting towards the FA from the west
with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend. With the exception of Wednesday night, NBM PoPs peak
during the afternoon Thursday through Sunday as a cold front
slowly sags south.

Still not seeing a strong signal for a severe weather risk with
meager shear and lapse rates, but the 00z GFS is hinting at some
low end marginal potential perhaps on Friday with 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of sfc-6km shear. At the very
least, mixing ratio values of 17 to 18 g/kg and PWATs near 2
inches may yield some heavy rainfall potential. Meanwhile, the
CMC is more progressive with fropa on Friday that would favor
stronger storms remaining south and west of the FA while the
ECMWF has trended slower towards the GFS. Unsettled weather then
lingers through the weekend. By the end of Sunday, the LREF
indicates a 70 to 90% probability of exceeding 1 inch of total
rainfall and 30 to 50% for exceeding 2 inches.

Unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are progged
through Wednesday before trending more seasonable into the low to
mid 80s during the latter half of the week into the weekend. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Ample dry conditions prevail across all terminals today with
VFR conditions. Smoke from the Canadian wildfire will continue
to cause hazy conditions in the high levels. Diurnal cu around
4 kft AGL will develop this afternoon, especially in the
vicinity of the southern terminals. Winds will be south to
southeast between 3-7 kts, falling below 5 kts after sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW