687
FXUS63 KPAH 240507
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1107 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures can be expected all week with
  plentiful chances of rain.

- Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will see off and on chances of
  light rain and patchy fog, as well as mild temperatures.

- Another disturbance will bring a better chance of widespread
  moderate to locally heavy rain Friday into Saturday. A couple
  rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Tonight through Christmas night...As of 19z Monday, widespread
mid-level clouds are present across the region in association
with weak isentropic upglide around the 290K level. Isolated
light rain or even just sprinkles are developing across southern
IL. However, this activity will struggle to reach the ground
for several more hours due to widespread boundary level dry air.
Rainfall activity will gradually expand in coverage tonight as
low level ascent increases, but any rain that falls will be very
light. Zonal H5 flow has brought a mild air mass into the
region that will persist for the next several days.

Christmas Eve will see similar weather and temperatures as
today as a weak and diffuse inverted trough settles over the
region. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s,
with light rain/drizzle chances retreating to southeast MO
during the daytime hours then expanding across the region during
the evening hours. Patchy fog is possible as well as the
boundary layer saturates.

For Christmas Day, areas of very light rain or drizzle will be
present through much of the day. It does not look to be a
washout by any means, but rain/drizzle and patchy fog will make
for a gloomy holiday, weather-wise. Temperatures will remain
mild, with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s in
most areas. The upper-level disturbance will exit the region by
the evening hours, bringing drier, but still cloudy weather.

Thursday through Sunday night...H5 heights will briefly rise of
the region on Thursday, allowing for a break in precipitation
chances and continued mild temperatures. However, cloud cover
will persist across most the region.

Another, more organized system will develop over the southern
Plains and pass north of the region Friday into Saturday,
bringing renewed rain chances. This system will have a bit more
moisture and non-zero elevated instability to work with, so
areas of moderate to locally heavy rain are expected Friday
through Saturday afternoon. A few rumbles of thunders are
possible as well Friday afternoon and evening across parts of
southeast MO and far western KY. Rainfall totals by Saturday
night, will range from 0.75-1.50" from north to south, with
locally higher amounts up to 2.00" possible over isolated parts
of southeast MO and western KY.

While the NBM initialization shows drier weather for Sunday,
some of the newest global model guidance shows a potential third
disturbance pass through the region Sunday, which could bring
renewed rain chances for the entire weekend period. Despite the
rain chances, temperatures look to be well above normal through
this entire period, with high temperatures reaching the middle
50s to lower 60s each day. Overnight lows will be near average
high temperature values, in the middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Scattered sprinkles and brief light rain showers will remain
possible through early Tuesday morning, as a weak disturbance
moves through. However, MVFR cigs will be slower to arrive and
will eventually build in from the west later Tuesday morning
into Tuesday afternoon. Pockets of MVFR vsbys are also possible,
mainly at KMVN where the low-levels of the column will be more
saturated. Light south winds between 3-5 kts shift southeast on
Tuesday.

The onset of the next system looks less impressive Tuesday
evening. Light rain showers will remain more isolated mainly
across the western terminals until the end of the TAF period
when more coverage is possible. Cigs gradually lift to VFR, with
the exception of KMVN where IFR/MFVR cigs remain more likely.
Winds will be light out of the east around 3-4 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW