282 FXUS63 KPAH 012324 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy skies from the Canadian wildfire smoke will continue today into Monday. - There is a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across southern parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. A stray strong storm or two could produce gusty winds and small hail. - Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday and continue through Saturday. - Temperatures will trend about 5 degrees above normal the middle of next week with an increase in humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A stalled front sits from about Perryville, MO to Madisonville, KY. South of the front there is at least a little bit of surface-based instability building in the heat of the day, although model soundings show some drier air just off the surface that may limit coverage. Some vertical cu are starting to show up along the front and in southeast Missouri, so will maintain the 20-30% pops starting about 3 pm today. Shear is quite weak and instability is only about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with Sfc-700 Theta-e differences about 20 K. Could see a little bit of downburst potential but the overall severe weather risk appears quite low. With the front stalled over the area and moisture pooling down low a little bit of patchy fog appears possible tonight over SEMO and WKY. Persistent troughing over the upper midwest sets a persistent southerly flow up over the region with a steady increase in heat and humidity. There may be some isolate shower/storm potential but precip looks fairly suppressed until Wednesday or so. At that point the first of a series of modest shortwaves starts to move just north of the region. GFS/ECMWF in the 12z guidance suite seem to have a generally unsettled pattern with relative peaks on Wednesday and again Friday afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor and instability may end up fairly limited overall. The train of successive modest shortwaves with more persistent troughing to the west would be more of a heavy rain potential setup if we are watching for anything hazardous. Will continue to monitor this period for sneaker severe weather threat and a flash flood risk. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 There may be some shallow, patchy fog that develops tonight for KPAH and KCGI. Otherwise VFR conditions through the end of the period. Upper level smoke haze is denoted as SCT250. Winds remain light and variable. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...SHAWKEY