361
FXUS63 KPAH 220400
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected later today, especially
  tonight, lingering into Monday; localized flooding heavy
  rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler and mostly drier conditions return Tuesday, before
  scattered storms re-enter the forecast later in the week
  heading into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The complex of storms marching across MO will push our
northern/western reaches this afternoon. MUCAPEs will be making
their way into 4 digits, despite incoming clouds retarding the
diurnal rise. Dew points already into the lower 70s across our
south will solidify their ground over the entirety of the FA
this pm. Bulk shear and lapse rates similarly improve with the
system`s approach, so any PM storm does show strong-svr potential.
However, the track of this driving low looks primarily to be to
our north, and the main first threat looks to follow its track.

Our best best for more robust/widespread storms comes later,
into the 00z-06z time frame, as the 2ndary wave develops and
rides along the boundary. By then, the upper shear profiles have
peaked, and helicity picks up, at least along the boundary/in
the vicinity of the wave`s track, which dives southeastward into
the lower Ohio Valley. Expect an all hazards severe mode with
this wave, and in addition, near 2" PW`s with E-SAT`s showing
10-30 year Return Intervals suggest an efficiency to heavy rain
producing storms that if they train/repeat over the same areas,
could enhance storm average forecast total signals of around an
inch, to localized totals 2-3x higher. We`ll therefore continue
the Flood Watch in our peak threat areas north for now, with
collaborative efforts driving any southward expansion.

Storms linger along/in advance of the boundary into Monday as
it moves eastward and southward coincident with the low`s track
up the Ohio valley, which ultimately winds pops down with
relatively cooler/drier air coming in its place by Tuesday. Pops
start to pick up again later in the week, esp into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Shower and storm chances will continue between 06-09z, decreasing in
coverage from northwest to southeast by 09z as a cold front moves
towards the area from the northwest. As the storms pass through,
MVFR vis/cigs may result. Cigs should largely remain between 1500-
2500 ft as the storms pass, with vis between 3-5 SM. There may be
showers/storms that redevelop between 12-16z along the cold front,
overspreading the area from west to east, but activity should
largely move out of the area by 18z. Confidence is lower on the
Monday morning storm activity and coverage, prompting PROB30 groups
at this time. Although, 12z and beyond, we will see widespread low
stratus develop along the passing cold front. Cigs are forecast to
be between 1000-2000 ft through much of Monday morning, with gradual
improvements to VFR between 18-21z Monday.

A cold front will move through the area Monday morning, approaching
the northwest by 12z. Ahead of the cold front, winds will largely
remain out of the south-southwest around 10-15 KTs. As storms pass
through the area tonight and in the early AM, variable winds with
gusts upwards to 40 KTs will be possible. The cold front is progged
to pass through the area between 12-16z, with northwest winds behind
it between 5-10 KTs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...WFO DVN