461 FXUS63 KLMK 110722 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Patchy fog possible this morning. Dry and warm weather expected through Thursda. * Unsettled weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Early morning satellite and observations show mostly clear skies across the region. Some light fog was noted across much of central KY with areas of dense fog in the deeper valley locations. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to around 60 in most areas. For the remainder of the overnight hours, light fog will continue across the region with the more dense fog limited to the valley locations. Overnight lows will likely be in the mid-upper 50s. For today, upper trough axis will continue to lift northeast out of the region. In its place, a more zonal flow pattern will set up over the region with an increase in riding aloft tonight. With low- level thicknesses increasing, temperatures today will be warmer than what we saw on Tuesday. Afternoon highs today should top out in the lower to middle 80s. Mostly clear skies with patchy fog is expected once again tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Thursday through Saturday Night... Upper level pattern will feature zonal flow across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Increasing heights aloft and low-mid level thickness increasing will lead to higher temperatures across the region. Afternoon highs on Thursday look to warm into the 84-89 degree range. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 60s to around 70. By Friday, zonal flow pattern aloft will remain in place across the northern CONUS with an upper level low across the southern Plains lifting northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This low will gradually deamplify as it moves across the region Friday and Saturday. Increasing southerly flow will allow deeper moisture to push up into the region during the period. Scattered showers and storms are expected across the region Friday afternoon. Some storms could be strong given expected instability, but shear pretty weak across the region. A higher coverage of showers and storms Saturday afternoon is expected. Again, some storms could be strong here as well given favorable instability during the afternoon. However, shear remains pretty weak, so the typical summertime pulse storm variety is expected with heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main threat. Overall, the showers and storms will not result in Friday and Saturday being a total washout, but the highest risk of storms will be in the afternoon and evening with lesser chance in the evening/overnight and early morning hours. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Sunday through Tuesday... Upper trough axis is expected to push east of the region on Sunday but we`ll see scattered afternoon and evening convection across the region. Again, not a total washout here, but with deep moisture expected across the region, we`ll have to watch out for isolated hydro issues that may crop up in areas that see repeated rainfall. The flow pattern looks to remain fairly zonal going into next week as a subtropical ridge axis attempts to set up across the southern US. A bit of a stronger band of westerlies will reside on the north side of that ridge with multiple perturbations moving through. The general setup is typical of a summertime pattern locally with the usual diurnal max of scattered showers/storms. The muggy pattern is expected to persist here with small diurnal ranges in temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight. Probably will see some fog across portions of the region with BWG and LEX seeing some decreased visibilities earl this morning. VFR conditions will return by 11/12-13Z with light south to southwest winds during the afternoon hours. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ