944 FXUS63 KLMK 021921 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 321 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions with warming temperatures expected through Wednesday. * Active weather expected to return Thursday through Saturday. * Strong to severe storms possible in the Thursday through Saturday period. Excessive rainfall is possible as a surface boundary stalls across the region. 1 to 4 inches of rainfall could occur late this week and into the weekend resulting in localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Afternoon satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies with hazy conditions across the region. The haze continues as wildfire smoke from central Canada rotates through the region. Afternoon temperatures were solidly in the mid-upper 70s with a few 80 degree readings out near the I-165 corridor. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. No significant weather is expected through the afternoon and evening. Look for temperatures to fall into the 70s this evening. For tonight, low level flow out of the southeast will veer to the south overnight. Skies will be mostly clear tonight. Lows will range from the upper 40s/lower 50s over the Bluegrass to the upper 50s/lower 60s in the I-65 and points west. For Tuesday, upper level ridge will continue to build across the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected again. Highs look to warm solidly into the middle 80s. A few of the urban corridors will push into the upper 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Tuesday Night through Saturday Night... Mid-level ridge axis will continue to drift eastward through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday. This will bring continued quiet/dry weather Tuesday night. Lows will be in the mid-upper 60s with some lower 70s in the urban areas. Wednesday looks to be be mostly dry as well as the upper ridge remains slow to push out. We could see a few isolated showers/storms across western KY into southern IN. NBM blend here looks a bit too high, so will only keep a slight chance of PoPs in for Wednesday afternoon. HIghs Wednesday look to be quite warm with most locations warming into the 85-90 degree range. Surface frontal boundary to the northwest will sag southeastward into the region Wednesday night and may provide a shot of some late convection mainly across southern IN and far northern KY. Here, we`ll continue with a chance of PoPs in the ongoing forecast. Lows will continue to be mild with readings in the upper 60s to around 70. Moving into Thursday and Friday, the upper trough axis to our west will attempt to move eastward, but the wave loses amplitude and the upper level flow looks to flatten out. Cold frontal boundary will drop into the region Thursday and then likely become stationary across the region as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Numerous perturbations are expected to move through the region within the main flow, promoting high rainfall chances across the region Thursday through early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected during this time period with some potential for strong to severe storms. Plenty of deep layer moisture will be in place across the region with reservoir of elevated PWAT values coming into the region from the southwest as the remnants of tropical cyclone Alvin get pulled ahead of the boundary. Localized diurnal instability will be seen across the region for strong/severe convection. However, uncertainty remains on how much shear we`ll have across the region. Overall, the perturbations moving through look to be rather weak, in terms of the wind field. However, the overall pattern here has the hallmarks of an early summer extended rainfall event for the Ohio Valley given the higher than normal PWAT values that could come into the region. So with that said, we`ll continue to go with a unsettled weather forecast for Thursday and Friday with periods of showers and storms moving through the region. Overall coverage will likely be maximized in the afternoon/evenings. Highs during the period will be cooler than what we see earlier in the week with readings highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s. Heavy QPF is expected during this time frame, but the exact placement will depend on where the quasi-stationary boundary sets up. Current forecast have this occurring just to our north/northwest from southern KS through central MO and into central Indiana. Locally, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall look likely through Saturday, though some isolated amounts of 4 inches can`t be ruled out. This may lead to an excessive rainfall despite the fact that rainfall would occurring over the period of several days. Localized flooding can`t be ruled out in spots that see repeated rainfall over increasingly saturated ground. Sunday and Monday... General model consensus suggests stalled out boundary will push south of the region by late in the weekend or into early next week. Current plan is to trend the forecast drier for Sunday and into Monday with temperatures near normal for early June. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions expected. BWG will see some SCT lower clouds around 4- 6 kft this morning. Today, a SE wind will increase to around 5 kt. Skies will be mostly clear, albeit hazy due to the continued presence of wildfire smoke aloft. After sunset tonight, expect very light winds once again with just a few high clouds. Cannot rule out some brief fog early Tuesday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ