391
FXUS63 KLMK 100942
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
542 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy to locally dense fog possible this morning.

* Dry/warm weather expected today through Thursday.

* Unsettled weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Have been watching obs and nighttime fog product this morning and
dense fog has become more concentrated across portions of south-
central KY.  Did a quick update to include a short-fused Dense Fog
Advisory through 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
southern Indiana.  Across much of central Kentucky, patchy to
locally dense fog and low clouds were seen in observations.
Temperatures were in the low-mid 60s across the area.  Actual
surface cold front that we`ve been waiting for is pushing through
southern IN this morning and is just north of the Ohio River. This
front will continue to push southward this morning.

In the near term, no significant weather is expected across southern
Indiana.  Across Kentucky, a mix of low clouds and fog will continue
through the pre-dawn hours.  Most extensive fog appears to be
focused along and south of the Bluegrass and Western KY Parkways.
Will continue to monitor obs over the next hour or two and if
visibilities continue to fall and fog becomes widespread, a Dense Fog
Advisory may be required.  Overnight lows will drop into the upper
50s across southern IN with upper 50s/lower 60s expected across
KY.

For today, look for high pressure to build into the region from the
northwest.  Aloft, heights will gradually rise during the day and
winds are expected to be mainly out of the northwest.  Cyclonic flow
aloft will allow wildfire smoke from Canada to drop into the region.
While skies will be mostly sunny, the overall sky condition will
likely be more hazy, especially into the evening hours.  Highs today
will be in the mid-upper 70s.  A few spots along the KY/TN border
may get to 80.

For tonight, mostly clear skies are expected, but additional high
level smoke will rotate into the region from the northwest.  This
smokey layer will likely limit radiational cooling to an extent.
Lows will generally be in the 54-59 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Wednesday through Thursday Night...

Flow aloft will become increasingly zonal on Wednesday.  We`ll still
have a bit of wildfire smoke aloft promoting hazy skies across the
region.  Highs are expected to reach the low-mid 80s with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Zonal flow pattern is
likely to persist into Thursday across much of the CONUS with the
exception of a cut off low across the southern Plains.  We`ll see a
bit more ridging across the region with less smoke aloft.  Highs
will gradually trend warmer here with readings in the mid-upper 80s
and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Friday through Monday...

Upper level low over the Plains will move slowly northeastward and
gradually weaken into an upper wave as it moves through the Ohio
Valley.  A good fetch of moisture off the Gulf will work northward
resulting in muggy conditions for the coming weekend.  With the
upper trough axis pushing in from the west, unsettled weather is
expected to return to the region with at least scattered
showers/storms coming back into the forecast by late Friday.  Rounds
of showers and storms are expected for Saturday and Sunday with the
most likely time of storms in the afternoon/evening coincident with
maximum heating.  Model soundings for Saturday-Monday show a rather
large buoyancy plume across much of the region.  Moisture remains
plentiful as PWATs push 2 inches. However, wind shear looks to
remain quite marginal. Nonetheless, some strong to severe storms
will be possible with heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts being
the potential threats. Given the recent rains and saturated grounds,
some hydro issues may creep up over the weekend.

Highs Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s.  Temperatures will
probably be a bit cooler in the Saturday through Monday period given
anticipated clouds and precipitation.  Generally will keep temps in
the lower 80s here with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Surface cold front remains just northwest of the region.  Ahead of
it a band of mid-level broken clouds will push through the northern
TAF sites early this morning.  There is a risk of patchy/dense fog
across central and southern KY overnight.  Most likely spots will be
BWG and LEX between 10/07-10/13Z.  Much of the guidance continues to
focus on MVFR vsbys, but some tempo drops into the IFR range are
possible.  After sunrise, look for fog to mix out with VFR
conditions through the day and into Tuesday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ027>029-038-039-045>047-053>055-061>066-070>078-081-
     082.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ