084 FXUS63 KLMK 130706 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 306 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and humid today, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather is low, though some storms could produce locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning. * Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Triple digit heat index values possible at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Weak mid-level shortwave troughing is noted over the Lower Ohio Valley this morning, with a deeper northern stream wave swinging over Ontario and the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is draped NE to SW through Lower MI and northern IL/MO. We still have a couple isolated thunderstorm drifting east across south-central KY early this morning, where PW values exceed 2.0 inches. Subtle low- level convergence enhanced by an outflow boundary, as well as weak ascent provided by the approaching mid-level wave, may be enough to sustain isolated convection south of the Bluegrass Parkway over the next few hours. Otherwise, most will stay dry. Temperatures are hovering in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. Lower clouds are forecast to expand in coverage through the early to mid-morning hours, trending the sky cover toward mostly cloudy in many areas to start the day. Skies will become partly sunny during the afternoon, though sky cover may be somewhat variable depending on convection. Today, weak mid-level troughing will remain in place as the cold front to our northwest sinks to the Ohio River by this evening. Isolated to scattered rain/storm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours with diurnal warming providing a boost to coverage and intensity. Coverage should be a bit higher across portions of central and southern KY, where moisture and instability will be relatively higher (compared to southern IN). Weak deep-layer shear (15 kts or so) will continue to limit convective organization and the ability to sustain an updraft. The severe weather risk is low, though any storm could produce brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s/near 90. Tonight, rain chances gradually taper off as the low levels stabilize. Look for partly cloudy skies with the possibility of some fog. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A weak cold front will continue to sink south through the forecast area on Thursday. Upper level support looks quite weak, and drier mid-level air is forecast to spill into the region from the northwest. Thus, rain chances look fairly spotty and confined to central and eastern KY. Most will stay dry, with afternoon highs once again in the upper 80s to near 90. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, which is likely to bring a stretch of hot and dry weather Friday into early next week. Saturday through Monday looks like the hottest period, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat index values will flirt with 100 each day. Strong mid and upper level ridging eventually shifts to the western United States by the middle of next week, which allows for NW flow aloft and opens the door to a cold front dropping in from the north. This should spell relief from the heat and higher rain chances mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Just have some isolated TSRA near BWG, which will pass to the east of that terminal quickly at the start of the period. Cannot rule out VCSH at LEX/RGA over the next few hours either. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the potential for low MVFR stratus through the early to mid-morning hours. Already seeing some MVFR stratus over portions of central KY, and these low clouds seem likely to expand between 06-12Z. All of the guidance isn`t sold on the low clouds and their evolution, however. Confidence in MVFR ceilings is lower at SDF and BWG, with relatively higher confidence at LEX/RGA. Sct shra/tsra expected once again Wednesday afternoon and evening, most likely in vicinity of BWG, LEX, and RGA. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...EBW