322
FXUS61 KILN 150210
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
910 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger into tonight as a frontal boundary
moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier
airmass will then build into the area as we head into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure is now centered somewhere in the vicinity
of the metro-Detroit area. While the axis of a mid-level trough
is moving east of the area, and heights are beginning to rise,
cool NW flow on the back side of the trough at 850mb is
continuing to support thick stratocumulus clouds. Deep-layer
moisture has eroded and moved east, with the 00Z KILN sounding
relatively dry above 700mb, and model soundings suggesting the
dry layer extending down to 800mb by 06Z. As such, the
precipitation mode has generally changed from showers to
drizzle. Models are never perfect at depicting drizzle in
scenarios like this, but pattern recognition would suggest that
patchy drizzle will continue overnight. This has been adjusted
in the forecast -- to add drizzle and extend the length of
precipitation through morning. Certainly think some light
patches of drizzle (or widely scattered showers) could even
continue into the day tomorrow, but will wait for higher
confidence before making this adjustment. Temperatures were
adjusted up by a couple degrees from the previous forecast
overnight, with thick moisture preventing temperatures from
falling too much so far.

Previous discussion >
Surface low pressure is currently situated over northeast
Indiana with an occluded front extending south from it through
eastern Indiana and into central Kentucky. An area of more
widespread showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will
continue to move east across southeast portions of our area over
the next couple of hours. Otherwise, scattered showers
elsewhere across the area will taper off from the west through
late afternoon and into this evening as the frontal boundary
moves through. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build slowly east into our area
Friday into Friday night. North to northwest low level flow
ahead of this will keep us in neutral or weak CAA through the
day on Friday. With some lingering low level moisture in place,
a fair amount of clouds will persist through the day on Friday
before some partial clearing begins to develop from the west
Friday night. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s
with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weather should be dry Saturday and Sunday as high pressure settles
southeast from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A weakening boundary
may produce a few showers across northern locations on Sunday night
before high pressure and dry air return for Monday. Low pressure
traveling to the Western Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for
rain Monday night and Tuesday. A persistently moist and unsettled
weather regime will allow the threat for rain to linger through
Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will stay relatively mild for most of the period, with
highs in the mid and upper 50s on Saturday, climbing into the 60s
for Sunday through Wednesday. Readings fall to the mid 40s to mid
50s on Thursday under a round of cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain showers will become less numerous over the next few hours,
but there will continue to be a chance of precipitation at the
TAF sites, as an area of drizzle moves eastward from Indiana.
While conditions are already expected to be MVFR to IFR based on
ceilings, the drizzle could also cause visibilities to drop to
MVFR or even IFR levels. It should also be noted that there are
some breaks in the clouds, leading to VFR conditions, but
prevailing conditions will soon return to MVFR or IFR levels.

Drizzle will become less likely by morning, and ceilings are
expected to mainly be MVFR tomorrow morning and afternoon. Some
breaks in the clouds may develop.

Sustained winds are expected to be 10 knots or less through the
TAF period, though a few marginal 12kt-15kt gusts are possible
tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos