295 FXUS61 KILN 042343 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 743 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving front will approach from the west overnight and then stall out across the area Thursday. Shower and storm chances increase late tonight, with episodic showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday, before the cold front pushes south of the Ohio River. Precipitation chances decrease for a period this weekend, before another frontal system approaches the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid and upper level ridge axis to remain centered along the Eastern Seaboard with a broad southwesterly flow across our region. Embedded shortwave pivots thru the Great Lakes into southern Canada today. Slow moving surface front that is draped across Lower MI, IL, and MO nudges a little east into far northwest Ohio this evening. Conditions continue to favor a dry forecast through the evening but can not rule out an isolated shower/storm across our far northwest counties this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late tonight as an embedded shortwave approaches the area. Instability will be elevated an marginal - so do not expect a severe weather threat. Pressure gradient tightened today which led to breezy conditions. These winds will drop off to 10 mph or less after sunset. Mild overnight lows expected as a warm air mass remains intact with lows in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Southwest flow aloft becomes more westerly Thursday. At the surface a weak cold front drops into the area and stall out Thursday night. Ongoing morning showers and thunderstorms move across the area early. Expect moderate instability to develop with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG. Effective shear is marginal, so organized convection is not expected. Primary severe threat looks to be isolated downburst potential. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. Showers and thunderstorms coverage decreases Thursday evening into diurnal minimum but with a moist airmass in places and a front draped across the area will continue chance pops thru the night. Low temperatures to range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid and upper 60s along and south of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active weather pattern is expected for the long term time period. A boundary will be in place near the region Friday through Saturday. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected during this time. With multiple waves expected, there will be the potential for localized flooding and therefore continued this mention in the HWO. In addition, an area of low pressure will move across the region on Friday. South of where this area of low pressure is expected to move, generally south of Interstate 70, there will be the potential for severe weather on Friday and into Friday night. Have mention of severe weather in the HWO already and will continue this mention as well. The main threat is expected to be damaging winds, however isolated large hail cannot be ruled out. The frontal boundary works through the region on Saturday. There is now more model variability for Saturday for whether this front works through the region and brings dry conditions or if another wave works up into the region bringing additional precipitation chances to the area. Due to this uncertainty, followed the NBM with lingering precipitation chances into Saturday night. There are also now signals that Sunday may not be completely dry. Confidence is not overly high with precipitation on Sunday and therefore precipitation chances are limited to the slight chance and chance categories. On Monday there continues to be a signal for a system moving through during this time. Confidence in at least scattered precipitation is on the higher end, however there are some differences in the strength and the timing of this system. Due to timing differences, linger precipitation chances into Tuesday before dry weather on Wednesday. For temperatures, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours. A very slow moving cold front will sag southeast toward the area from northwest Ohio. This front stalls out during the early morning hours, with showers firing along it. Northwestern/western TAF sites (KDAY and perhaps KCVG/KLUK) will have the highest chances for some early morning shower activity. Coverage very slowly works east around sunrise Thursday. Have included TEMPO groups for just about all sites at varying times throughout the morning hours. Confidence is low on timing/ placement, folks. As we get into the afternoon hours, scattered thunderstorms will blossom in the warm airmass, but coverage won`t be widespread (hence the word scattered). Have used PROB30s to communicate the -TSRA threats for all sites as we head into late afternoon/evening. With the front stalled out just to our northwest, winds will be generally out of the southwest around 10 knots or less, though we may have some light and variable Thursday evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening through Friday. MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible Thursday night and again Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CA