457
FXUS63 KPAH 140702
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
202 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most
  river points have crested or will soon, but levels will be
  slow to fall this week for many points.

- A few showers or an isolated storm are possible this afternoon and
  early evening across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday before
  warmer temperatures return for the latter part of the week.

- An active weather pattern returns late in the week and into
  the weekend, with rain chances peaking Friday night into
  Saturday and again Sunday night into next Monday. A few strong
  to severe storms may be possible during this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

An upper level system and associated surface low will move across
the Northern Great Lakes today with an associated cold front sinking
south across the Ohio Valley through the day. Best forcing and
deeper moisture will exist further east of our region, thus the main
convective potential along with any severe storm chance resides well
to the east. However, the boundary may still be able to kick off
some scattered showers or isolated storms as it makes passage across
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana this afternoon into early
evening.

Upper level troughing will become centered across the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure initially over the Central
Plains will migrate into the TN valley region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High temperatures will primarily be in the 60s during
this period with lows down around 40 Tuesday night.

Warm air advection showers are possible as early as Wednesday, but
most likely sometime Wednesday night into Thursday, ahead of a
system developing across the Plains. This system looks to hold off
impacting our area until Friday night or Saturday. The parameter
space is a bit murky this far out, but a few strong to severe storms
may be possible. A somewhat greater chance for severe storms may
occur with a stronger upper level system and associated surface low
that eject out of the Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River
Valley Sunday night. However, timing of this system could keep the
main threat to our west, which is what guidance is currently leaning
towards. CIPS analogs for severe weather probabilities are highest
across Arkansas and southwest Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

As southerly surface winds continue to decrease, expect WS020
20040-50KT through 13z. From 13z-19z, winds will gradually shift
to southwest then northwest around 7-13kts with a few higher
gusts. All TAF sites will be VFR with SCT-BKN250 overnight into
the morning. Toward 18z, lower VFR cigs will spread across TAF
sites, with an isolated shower near KMVN/KEVV/KOWB possible, but
chances too low to include. No vsby restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...RST