457 FXUS63 KPAH 140702 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 202 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most river points have crested or will soon, but levels will be slow to fall this week for many points. - A few showers or an isolated storm are possible this afternoon and early evening across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. - Cooler and dry conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday before warmer temperatures return for the latter part of the week. - An active weather pattern returns late in the week and into the weekend, with rain chances peaking Friday night into Saturday and again Sunday night into next Monday. A few strong to severe storms may be possible during this period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 An upper level system and associated surface low will move across the Northern Great Lakes today with an associated cold front sinking south across the Ohio Valley through the day. Best forcing and deeper moisture will exist further east of our region, thus the main convective potential along with any severe storm chance resides well to the east. However, the boundary may still be able to kick off some scattered showers or isolated storms as it makes passage across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana this afternoon into early evening. Upper level troughing will become centered across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure initially over the Central Plains will migrate into the TN valley region Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures will primarily be in the 60s during this period with lows down around 40 Tuesday night. Warm air advection showers are possible as early as Wednesday, but most likely sometime Wednesday night into Thursday, ahead of a system developing across the Plains. This system looks to hold off impacting our area until Friday night or Saturday. The parameter space is a bit murky this far out, but a few strong to severe storms may be possible. A somewhat greater chance for severe storms may occur with a stronger upper level system and associated surface low that eject out of the Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley Sunday night. However, timing of this system could keep the main threat to our west, which is what guidance is currently leaning towards. CIPS analogs for severe weather probabilities are highest across Arkansas and southwest Missouri. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 As southerly surface winds continue to decrease, expect WS020 20040-50KT through 13z. From 13z-19z, winds will gradually shift to southwest then northwest around 7-13kts with a few higher gusts. All TAF sites will be VFR with SCT-BKN250 overnight into the morning. Toward 18z, lower VFR cigs will spread across TAF sites, with an isolated shower near KMVN/KEVV/KOWB possible, but chances too low to include. No vsby restrictions. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...RST