667
FXUS63 KPAH 241155
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off chances of light rain possible today and into
  Christmas Day.

- Above normal temperatures are expected the rest of the week
  and especially the weekend.

- Another disturbance will bring a better chance of widespread
  moderate to locally heavy rain Friday into Saturday. A couple
  rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

An upper level shortwave is moving into the Ohio Valley this
morning with a surface boundary extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest into Illinois and Missouri. Scattered showers
are moving through the area within weak isentropic ascent. The
light rain and drizzle activity should continue in this west to
east fashion through the morning hours before guidance indicates
activity decreasing east of the Mississippi river.

Troughing out west will be moving into the plains today with
increasing diffluent flow aloft. A weak inverted trof looks to
setup across Arkansas and Missouri today and into tonight. Rain
chances will likely be higher across SEMO near this feature with
decreasing chances east. Chances should spread eastward into the
evening hours. Light rain and drizzle continues on Christmas
Day with the better chances of rain across SEMO and into
southern Illinois, again closer to the inverted trof feature. So
while it doesn`t look like a complete wash out, overcast skies
and light rain/drizzle will make for gloomy conditions on
Christmas Day. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the
upper 40`s to mid 50`s. The upper level system weakens and moves
through the region into Christmas night. Lingering chances of
rain associated with this passage will eventually decrease as
Thursday approaches.

A more organized system develops across the plains and moves
through the region late this week and into the weekend. This
system will bring additional rain chances to the area late
Thursday night into Saturday. Areas of moderate to heavy
rainfall are possible given better forcing aloft and deeper
moisture. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible with this
system with guidance showing strengthening lapse rates aloft.
Rainfall amounts look to range between 1 and 1.50 inches from
north to south. Locally higher amounts pushing 2 inches are
possible over parts of western Kentucky. At least 1 or 2 more
systems are advertised in guidance to make an appearance which
will keep rain in the forecast into Sunday. Temperatures will be
well above normal through the weekend with highs in the upper
50`s to lower 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Light rain and sprinkles will continue for a few more hours this
morning before diminishing east of the Mississippi River. MVFR
cigs will continue to build into the region today. Guidance
keeps PAH and to a lesser extend CGI in VFR today, but kept a
TEMPO in at CGI for MVFR conditions. Another system will bring
additional rain to western portions of the area tonight. Higher
confidence on activity at CGI and MVN with PROB30 groups
elsewhere. Cigs will begin to improve late in the period Tuesday
night while MVN remains underneath MVFR cigs. Light winds
expected through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$