827 FXUS63 KLMK 080709 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this morning and this afternoon across the region. The threat of organized severe weather remains quite low. * Another round of showers and storms will move through the region late tonight and during the day on Monday. Strong/severe storms will be possible on Monday in areas east of I-65. * Heavy rainfall will be possible with the showers and storms with an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Early morning satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the region. Early morning temperatures were in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Area radars continued to show convection moving across the Ohio Valley this morning. Two main areas of convection were noted, one across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky associated with an MCV. A second MCV was noted just southeast of St. Louis. The St. Louis MCV was driving the most active convection at the moment across western KY, near Owensboro. Area radar VWPs were showing an increasing low-level jet axis across the region with a modest amount of instability present. The activity currently near Owensboro is expected to move eastward through portions of north-central KY over the next few hours. The low-level jet will continue keep this convection going for another few hours. Instability is expected to wane with eastward extent. The threat for severe weather remains quite low here. However, given the rich low-level moisture combined with a deep warm cloud layer and efficient precipitation processes, heavy rainfall will be the main threat with this activity. Based on current radar motion and the latest CAM guidance, this activity should head eastward just south of the US 60 corridor. Temperatures through sunrise look to remain in the upper 60s to around 70. For today, upstream MCV is forecast to slowly translate eastward across the region this morning. Remnant convective will push into central KY later this morning. With diurnal heating, scattered convection is likely to develop out along this boundary. The highest coverage of showers/storms looks to be east of the I-65 corridor. Highs this afternoon will be a little below normal with mainly upper 70s and a few lower 80s. For tonight, closed low over northern MN will slowly pivot eastward into the Great Lakes. Digging trough axis will push a frontal boundary toward the region late tonight. This boundary will push toward the Ohio River by sunrise Monday. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely develop in advance of the front and mainly affect areas west of I-65 tonight. Lows tonight will drop into the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Monday through Wednesday Night... Surface frontal boundary is forecast to be pushing through the area Monday morning. As the boundary pushes eastward during the day, we`ll get some daytime heating to spark another round of strong/severe convection across the eastern half of our forecast area Monday afternoon. While instability is a little higher in the recent model runs, low-mid level lapse rates are not all that great across the region. However, we should be able to develop 900-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region during the afternoon which could produce damaging winds and marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. The front and associated convection look to push eastward out of the region Monday night with a very pleasant airmass moving into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Monday will warm into the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight lows dropping back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Highs Tuesday should be a little cooler with readings mainly in the upper 70s to near 80. Lows Tuesday night will dip back into the mid-upper 50s in the west, with low-mid 50s in the east. Highs will bounce back a bit on Wednesday with highs in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Thursday through Sunday... By mid-late week, the pattern aloft will feature a general zonal pattern with a mid-level wave moving through the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This trough may deepen a bit as it moves toward the Ohio Valley by the end of the week and into the weekend. Latest model trends have slowed precipitation onset with Thursday looking a bit more dry right now. However, Friday and into next weekend looks quite unsettled with the potential for thunderstorms (some strong) and heavy rainfall. Highs during the period will generally be in the 83-88 degree range with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Currently the area is between two convective MCVs that are rotating through the Ohio Valley. First MCV is moving through southeast OH with the second one coming out of the St. Louis area. In the near term, batch of heavy showers will push northeastward into KLEX in the next hour or so. Expect cigs/vsbys to be significantly reduced as the heavy rainfall moves through, and this should be out of the terminal by 08/08Z. Elsewhere, will be watching a band of convection coming out of southern IL and into western KY in advance of the upstream MCV. Right now, this looks to pass between KSDF and KBWG. Expect cigs to drop into the MVFR/IFR range later this morning but should recover nicely in the mid-late morning hours with a return to VFR. Winds will also pick up on the back side of the St. Louis MCV as it passes. Look for gusty southwest breezes this afternoon with gusts of 18-22kts. Winds will diminish after sunset with VFR conditions expected tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ