322 FXUS63 KLMK 020546 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 146 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday into Wednesday. * Active weather to return Thursday and Friday with possible strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1103 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Late afternoon convection has moved south of the region and dissipated at this hour. The remainder of the night will feature calm to light winds and clear skies. The southern half of the region did the see quite as much efficient mixing as the northern half of the region did. Therefore, patchy fog development will be possible over the southern areas. Especially, areas that saw rain from this afternoon. Fog will dissipate within a hour or two of sunrise in the morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 The big question for this afternoon and evening will be what, if any, convection will fire along the boundary currently draped across south central KY. Right now, the boundary appears to be situated along a Hartford KY, to Glasgow, KY, to Lake Cumberland area line. Dew points drop off into the low and mid 40s north of this boundary, with low to mid 60s values south of it. Modest instability has developed south of this boundary characterized by ML CAPE values around 500-1000 J/KG, and the cumulus field has started to become more agitated in this area as well. Surface moisture convergence on the latest 18z mesoanalysis doesn`t show much at the moment, and latest hi-res guidance doesn`t expect isolated to scattered initiation until after 5pm. It is possible that the upper level smoke from upstream wildfires is hurting temps/insolation just a bit, which directly affects destabilization. For the moment, we aren`t realizing the amount of instability that forecast soundings would otherwise suggest. If/when showers and storms do get going, expect isolated to widely scattered coverage. They should be in an environment with just enough deep layer shear (25 to 30 knots) to perhaps support some brief/loose organization. Mid level lapse rates are better today than yesterday, so do think some hail could accompany a gusty or isolated severe wind threat with the strongest storms. SPC Marginal Risk looks pretty good, however the boundary doesn`t make a whole lot of progress southward, it may need to be lifted just a bit farther north closer to the current analyzed line mentioned above. Any convection dies off tonight with cool overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s for most. Perhaps our SW stays more in the upper 50s nearer the boundary. Could see some patchy fog, especially nearer the boundary or in valleys as well. Monday brings a quiet day with upper ridging building overhead and likely some wildfire smoke potentially impacting the boundary layer a bit more (rather than upper level). It seems smoke is affecting temp ranges a bit, but will still call for warmer temps in the upper 70s and low 80s for most. Mid 80s most likely across west central KY. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Monday Night - Wednesday... An upper ridge axis and the western fringes of strong surface high pressure anchored over the mid Atlantic Coast will continue to dominate our pattern through mid week. This will keep us in continued dry, and increasingly warm conditions during that stretch. In fact, looking for above normal temps with max Ts in the 85 to 90 degree range each day. Could be a pattern to go well above guidance on, but recent widespread rainfall, some wildfire smoke hurting insolation, and upper sky cover all decrease confidence on going too warm by Tue/Wed. Nevertheless, we`ll definitely have a more of a summertime feel as we begin the month of June. Overnight lows will also be notably milder, especially on Tuesday night as we only bottom out in the mid 60s to around 70. There continues to be a small chance for a shower or storm across our NW CWA by Wednesday PM, but my gut tells me the upper ridge will mostly win out, and this period will trend toward completely dry. Will leave some small chances in for now. Wednesday Night - Friday Night... The latter half of the week looks active. The upper ridge axis from earlier in the week will have slid east over the Atlantic Coast, meanwhile more of a SW flow aloft ahead of broad upper troughing over the western 2/3 CONUS will start to envelope our area. At the surface, a trailing cold front from an eastern Canada system will slide toward and into our region, likely stalling for at least some time. Chances for showers and storms will steadily increase from NW to SE starting as early as Wednesday night across our NW, but more likely on Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night across much of our CWA as a subtle shortwave ejects out of the southern Plains into our area. This wave may have some strong to severe storm potential with it as we should be fairly unstable ahead of it, and the shortwave will provide the added deep layer shear. Something to watch, and will continue to look for at least some signal in the NSSL/CSU ML products. Right now, the signal remains weak, but is there. The front will likely stall near or over our area by Friday, bringing added rounds of showers and storms to the area. May have to start watching some rainfall totals by this point for some localized nuisance or flood concerns, especially if we get some training over the same areas. Saturday - Sunday... Another shortwave looks to rotate through the Great Lakes region by Saturday, and is expected to help push the stalled frontal boundary through our area. Models disagree on just how progressive this evolution will be, so will have to keep some pops lingering into the weekend. There is a chance that this weekend will be drier than currently forecast if indeed the front makes a clean pass through our area. For now, will keep lingering chances and slightly cooler temps in the low to mid 80s going. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions likely through much of this TAF period. Some fog is possible early this morning, mainly at RGA and HNB. Winds will remain very light (3 kt or less) out of the E/SE through the early morning hours. BWG will see some SCT lower clouds around 4-5 kft. Today, a SE wind will increase to around 5 kt. Skies will be mostly clear, albeit hazy due to the continued presence of wildfire smoke aloft. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRW SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...EBW