521 FXUS61 KILN 261838 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 238 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue into the middle of next week. Mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the weekend, but the chance will persist until a cold front moves through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Scattered showers and storms have developed, but activity is rather disorganized. There is an impulse traveling across the lower Great Lakes that is enhancing activity across northern Indiana. As this continues into northern Ohio, it is not out of the question that the southern edge of that affects counties in west central Ohio. Elsewhere, forcing is weak and so expect any stronger cells to be quite localized. Activity area wide will diminish early this evening with the loss of heating. There are indications that an MCS will pass north of the area late tonight. If this happens, there there will once again be potential for showers or storms to make it into far northern counties before daybreak. There are sporadic reliable observations that are having the heat index reach or exceed 100. Will see a few more locations reach that threshold late this afternoon. Plan on letting heat advisory continue as is and expire this evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Morning MCS may clip parts of central Ohio early in the day. This will also likely lay out an east-west boundary bifurcating the forecast area. This will serve as a focus for an increased convective coverage on Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Shear is forecast to be quite minimal but precipitable water will be near a daily maximum, close to 2 inches. So heavy rainfall will be a primary concern. Once again, activity will move off and decrease during the evening. With increased coverage of convection forecast for Sunday, high temperatures may be just a tad lower. This leads to very low probabilities of the heat index reaching 100 once again, except in parts of northern Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With zonal wnw flow aloft and an entrenched upper high found over the srn 1/2 of the country, hot and humid conditions will be the rule through Thursday. Rain chances are low as the upper ridge builds in the Midwest and flow over the Ohio Valley becomes more nwly, removing the deeper moisture that`s been found lately. While NBM forecast is showing no pops Mon night through Tues night and an uptick on Wed, I suspect that there will be some sct/isold convection triggered by peak heating Mon/Tue. On Wed night, a cold front will pass south through the area and winds will shift north-northeast with building high pressure over the Upper Midwest. Rain chances do not die out until Thursday after upper level energy and a weak trough passes, noted at h8 more than anywhere else. From Thurs night onward, a dry forecast is in store. Regarding temperatures, highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s will begin to moderate Wed and Wed night when nw CWA has highs below 90 and lows drops to below 70 for the first time in what will then be just shy of a week. Notable relief from the heat should be found from Thurs onward as highs drop to the upper 70s/low 80s and lows fall to the upper 50s/low 60s. This occurs as upper level flow turns northwest veering to northeast at h8 and sfc during this time. IMO temps on Fri/Sat should be slightly warmer than is being forecast from NBM. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and storms will continue across the area early in the period. If any of these affect a terminal, then visibility will drop to MVFR and possibly briefly IFR. There is low chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the Columbus area towards 12Z, but too low to include in the TAFs. However, there will be a better potential for thunderstorms late in the TAF period area wide. There continue to be indications that stratocumulus could develop after 09Z which would result in a period of MVFR ceilings. Confidence is only medium on this occurrence, but it was sufficient to include in the forecast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening, Monday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ063>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...