273 FXUS61 KILN 081749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the week with a focus more during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures are expected to be near normal or slightly above normal through most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A few showers have started to develop south of the Ohio River. Expect continued isolated development of showers and thunderstorms across the lower Scioto Valley into portions of northern Kentucky into the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm elsewhere, however confidence was not high enough to introduce precipitation chances at this time. Temperatures will generally be in the 80s today and then drop down into the 60s tonight. While there will be some clouds around tonight, with light winds and low level moisture have river valley fog in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Expect more coverage in precipitation for Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night than today. Isolated to scattered convection will develop during the day. Increased precipitation chances from the NBM across northwestern portions of the region, generally some locations northwest of Interstate 71, Wednesday evening to match higher NBM QPF values and where there are consistent model signals for precipitation chances. Precipitation chances will decrease later Wednesday overnight. With the light winds, some breaks in the clouds, and recent rainfall, expect at least some fog potential Wednesday night. Added in patchy fog for now. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the 80s and lows Wednesday night in the 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall zonal pattern will continue through the work week, with a weak short wave and associated cold frontal boundary will push southeast from the western Great Lakes into the region on Thursday. Flow and 0-6km shear remain weak, so not much concern for severe storms, though a collapsing updraft with strong winds here and there is certainly possible. Yet another potential for mainly diurnally driven slower moving storms especially along/southeast of the I-71 corridor. The boundary will weaken as it settles just south of the Ohio River for Friday. A slight warming trend for daily high temperatures through Saturday, building into the upper 80s. More organized convection for the weekend is expected, with a sharper shortwave trough lifting from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes for Saturday. Still some differences in timing/sharpness of the trough and it`s associated frontal progression, with NBM solution still favoring primary thunderstorm potential on Saturday, with a slightly eastern focus on Sunday at this time. Several ensemble members continue to show the potential for a slower solution favoring greater thunderstorm activity on Sunday, so timing uncertainty remains. With most ensemble members favoring the Great Lakes trough becoming more shallow/muted at least by the end of the weekend, strong ridging building in from the SW CONUS on Monday will allow for increasing heights as well as temperatures as the ridging builds eastward across the CONUS. Lingering chances for scattered mostly diurnally driven showers/storms into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An isolated shower cannot be ruled out near KILN this afternoon, however given lower chance and isolated potential decided to leave out of the TAF at this time. Cu and high clouds will be present today. There are also some mid clouds that move in overnight. Guidance is indicating fog overnight, however there is also cloud cover expected overnight. Decided to not go as low as some of the guidance because of the cloud potential, but still indicated some reduced visibilities with fog overnight with plenty of low level moisture around and light winds. Showers and some thunderstorms will work into the area TAF sites on Wednesday. Limited most locations to shower mention as better chance for thunderstorms will be after the end of the TAF period. Have tempo TSRA in the afternoon at the longer KCVG TAF location. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day from Thursday through Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...