916 FXUS61 KILN 020736 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 336 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad area of high pressure keeps surface conditions dry through the middle of the week. Additionally, a warming trend continues through this period until a slow moving front approaches from the west, resulting in repeated rounds of showers and storms through at least the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Deep layer of northwesterly flow aloft will continue to result in Canadian wildfire smoke advecting into the Midwest region. Dry soundings would suggest that cloud development will be very limited today with the exception of a few cirrus clouds. However, given the increased density of vertically integrated smoke, continue to nudge sky cover higher in the grids compared to what the NBM initializes since we will observe filtered sunshine throughout the day. Smoke aloft appears to have a subtle impact on surface temps, so trended daytime highs a couple degrees below guidance. Temps will still be able to climb into the middle 70s across our CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure system will drift more towards the Atlantic coast tonight, but still hold a strong influence across the Ohio Valley. The new location of the surface high will result in enhanced return flow tonight and on Tuesday, continuing the warming trend. Overnight lows will be noticeably milder in the lower to middle 50s -- nearly 10 degrees higher compared to the previous night. Even with the modification in wind fields aloft, the HRRR smoke model still suggests high concentrations of vertically integrated smoke across our CWA on Tuesday. The difference, however, is that this smoke is now being advected from the south (after previously originating from Canada). This could potentially alter the concentrations of smoke aloft and have it be more reduced than models are suggesting. However, there will likely be some obstruction aloft from the smoke, keeping a milky-white appearance in the sky once again. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Expect highs to breach the 80 degree mark for the entire fa, trending more towards the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging at the surface and aloft centered along the south Atlantic coast will continue to exert its influence across the region to start the period. A short wave emerging out of the Ozarks will deamplify as it rides up the back side of the mid level ridge into the lower Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Active corridor of showers and thunderstorms will primarily stay west of the area during this time frame, although could work its way into west central Ohio. The ridge gets suppressed later in the week as a more zonal pattern sets up across much of the country. A cold front trailing low pressure passing well north in Canada will end up laying out east- west across the region. At this point, it seems most likely that will be positioned across northern Indiana and northern Ohio. With this boundary in the area, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. A robust short wave is forecast to move across the area Friday into Friday night which will induce an area of low pressure that will travel along the front. This will bring the greatest potential for showers and storms. Once this passes, the front is forecast to sag south of the area on Saturday, although it may start to return back north on Sunday. This would bring a relatively dry period for Saturday into Sunday morning with the possibility of precipitation again by Sunday afternoon. Above normal temperatures will occur, with lows being nearly 10 degrees above normal, until the low passes at the end of the week. Temperatures will fall back over the weekend with readings closer to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Pushed back the onset of potential vsby reductions at KLUK based on latest satellite imagery. However, given the development of fog last night, and the fact that similar conditions are forecast tonight, felt like it was still worth keeping a mention in the tafs. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through the taf period. Continued to mention SCT250 for the elevated smoke. Winds remain light through the taf period and will be variable at times given that the surface high will be right over the Ohio Valley. Eventually, this high shifts eastward, so surface winds will become more southwesterly this afternoon and eventually shift to the southeast tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM... AVIATION...Clark