346
FXUS63 KLMK 120144
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
944 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and Thunderstorm chances begin increasing Thursday evening
  across southern Kentucky before becoming widespread Friday and
  lasting through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Sfc high is retreating into West Virginia, giving way to light
southerly breezes which will either back to the SE or completely
decouple for the rest of the night. Radiational cooling conditions
are overall less favorable than last night given wider initial T/Td
spreads and plenty of cirrus debris from convection over Arkansas
and Oklahoma. Therefore any fog concerns are minimal, and no changes
are planned to the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Tonight, upper ridging and surface high pressure, centered over
Appalachia, will keep skies mostly clear and winds light to calm.
Some high level cirrus will continue streaming overhead. This set-up
will allow for decent radiative cooling, so fog will be possible
again near waterways. The best chance for fogging will be across the
Lake Cumberland area. With this said, don`t believe dense fog will
be an issue. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s in most places.
A few places could slip into the upper 50s.

Tomorrow, upper zonal flow will push the surface high farther off to
the east, and surface high pressure over the Atlantic and low
pressure over the western Plains will help keep light winds out of
the south, funneling Gulf moisture north into the Ohio Valley. An
upper low over the Southern Plains will drift from Oklahoma towards
the Ozarks. This will begin to increase cloud coverage ahead of
precipitation, associated with the low, over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Thursday night, the upper trough will reach the Ozarks over
southwest Missouri. Around this time, a weak surface low will
develop under the upper low as the system continues towards southern
Indiana. Precipitable water values will increase to over 1.6" over
the CWA. Some areas could see isolated values as high as 2". Chances
remain low, but they are increasing for showers and thunderstorms to
begin moving northeast into southern Kentucky. Any precipitation
would remain isolated to scattered and could work farther north and
or east later in the night. This would likely be an outer band
around the upper low. The GFS and NAM are more bullish with this
while the Euro delays the precipitation into Friday. Some CAMs are
picking up on isolated activity. Soundings show limited instability
and weak shear. Thunder would be possible, but severe weather isn`t
expected.

As the upper low moves to the east before dissipating Saturday night
into Monday morning as it gets picked up by upper zonal flow. The
surface low remains near the Ohio Valley a little longer, sticking
around through Sunday night. Precipitable water values likely remain
around 1.75-2", so plenty of moisture will keep cloud cover and
precipitation in the area. Throughout this time, periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely. Severe weather
chances remain low.

Early next week, the region is expected to see a break from
precipitation before waves on northwest flow begin bringing
additional rounds of precipitation into the Lower Ohio Valley mid
and late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Sfc high pressure over eastern Kentucky will retreat eastward into
West Virginia, maintaining light winds out of the S/SE. Minimal fog
concerns overnight as dewpoints mixed down fairly efficiently this
afternoon. Look for cirrus ceilings by midday Thursday, and
continued VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ077>079-
     090>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS