582
FXUS63 KLMK 110524
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fog possible tonight.

* Dry/warm weather expected through Thursday.

* Unsettled weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Sfc high pressure settling over the Ohio Valley has allowed winds to
decouple. Main challenge tonight is fog, but dewpoints dropped
solidly into the 50s this afternoon in quite a few spots. Dewpoints
a bit higher toward the Cumberland Escarpment, so we`ll carry patchy
fog from Lake Cumberland to just south and east of Lexington, but
not enough confidence to highlight any dense fog at this time.
Minimal changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Tonight, the axis of an upper trough will sit east of the Lower Ohio
Valley, resulting in northwest flow into the region. This will push
an area of surface high pressure east over the CWA. Skies will clear
with the loss of diurnal heating, and winds will ease and become
calm. Radiative cooling is expected to drop temperatures into the
mid 50s in the far eastern Bluegrass to the upper 50s to low 60s
over the rest of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Dew points
are now in the upper 50s to low 60s which is lower than yesterday
due to the passage of the cold front, but with falling temperatures
tonight, fog development will be likely from some areas, mainly in
the Lake Cumberland area.

Tomorrow, the upper trough will begin lifting north as it becomes
more zonal over the Great Lakes, but it will leave the surface low
centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep winds light
during the day. Lots of sunshine is expected, lifting temperatures
into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Weak zonal flow is expected for most of the long term as flat upper
ridging expands into the Ohio Valley. Dry weather is on tap for
Thursday, but rain chances return on Friday and increase over the
weekend into early next week under an ample deep moisture supply.

Above normal temperatures will make their comeback on Thursday under
a shortwave upper ridge. Humidity levels will remain manageable but
highs will push 90 for most locations. By Friday rain chances will
creep back in as the flow aloft becomes more southerly ahead of a
baggy trof over the central/southern Plains. Chances should be
limited to ~20% in the Bluegrass and 30-40% in south central
Kentucky, and it looks like the hottest day of the upcoming week
with highs just either side of 90.

Rain chances peak Saturday through Monday under weakly cyclonic flow
with a fairly deep fetch of Gulf moisture. PWATs approaching 2
inches will support heavy rainfall, along with your typical pulse
severe convective threats, confidence in severe weather is not high.
Toward the end of the weekend, if we start to see repeated heavy
rain in some areas, localized flooding will be on the table as well.
The increasingly muggy air mass will limit diurnal temp ranges, so
look for highs each day close to normal with lows each night
creeping up around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight.  Probably will
see some fog across portions of the region with BWG and LEX seeing
some decreased visibilities earl this morning.  VFR conditions will
return by 11/12-13Z with light south to southwest winds during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RAS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....RAS
AVIATION.....MJ