195 FXUS61 KILN 021900 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue through mid week. A warming trend also continues until a slow moving front approaches from the west, resulting in repeated rounds of showers and storms through at least the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As the surface high continues to drift toward the mid Atlantic coast, more persistent southerly flow continues over the region on the back side of the high. Overnight lows continue to moderate closer to normal values, with low to mid 50s through the region. The approaching mid level trough and associated cold front will be slow to influence the region as the broad area of high pressure and limited moisture will keep advancing clouds at bay for now, but mention of some sky obscuration due to high level smoke will continue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... While continued quiet weather dominates through Tuesday and Tuesday night, the question and uncertainties are whether there will be any haze closer to the surface as the HRRR Near-Surface smoke modeling seems to suggest. Checking surface observations over the past several days in the northern plains and how they compare to past HRRR runs, it seems any haze that may materialize as the HRRR suggests on Tuesday would yield very limited visibility restrictions. Mentioning some haze for Tuesday in eastern portions of the forecast area, but should be pretty limited, especially since any smoke concentrations will be traveling a much more circuitous path. However, hazy sunshine will continue, so have kept the mention of sky obscuration levels similar to the past couple of days, though increasing with the advancing frontal system late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Expect highs to breach the 80 degree mark for the entire fa, trending more toward the middle 80s with increasing SW flow/surface winds. Low level moisture/dewpoints increase as well. Overnight lows Tuesday night in the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wed increased pops in the nw look to be a little early as 20% pops for extreme nw CWA should be considered high-end versus the 40% currently running. This disparity continues overnight with 70+ pops running in nw CWA and dry in the far se. Deterministic models are all dry along/se of I-71 corridor and sparse with QPF overnight, leading me to think a 40% would be closer to ground truth. Daytime Thurs is more of the same with categorical in the forecast for entire CWA where high chance would be more prudent. Indications of the NBM depicting a closer solution to the other models is found overnight Thurs into Fri where a more continuous precip event occurs for CWA with the possible exception of the far se overnight Thurs. This exception goes the wayside on Fri with a continued shot of steady rain, moderate at times over the CWA. A cold front will pass early on Sat and clear out any lingering precip in the morning. The persistence in low chance to chance pops in the south on Sat and remainder of CWA beginning Sun afternoon into Mon is overdone. This should be a relatively dry period with maybe a chance of rain on Mon. Temps start warm in the upper 80s Wed, cooling to the upper 70s by Sat and Sun and trending warmer to around 80 on Mon. PM lows in the upper 60s Wed night will slowly drop to mid 60s Thu and low-mid 60s Fri night. Upper 50s to low 60s will round out the nighttime low forecast going forward from here. A slow-moving cold front oriented sw-ne over IL on Wed will approach the CWA later overnight and dissipate on Thursday. Overnight and on Fri, a stronger sfc low develops to the w and takes aim on the CWA, resulting in prevailing showers and thunderstorms in the late day and overnight. High pressure builds in behind it early Sat, keeping the region dry through the remainder of the forecast. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR prevails through the period, with the exception of KLUK which may still have 08-12z MVFR to possibly IFR visibility restrictions with lingering light wind in valley fog. Kept with persistence in SCT250 for high smoke. Not sold on adding HZ to TAFs with surface VSBY restrictions over the past several days confined to MN and spotty portions of IA, despite some forecast increase in near surface smoke modeling from the HRRR. Will continue to monitor, but if any restrictions do develop, would be higher level MVFR after 15z Tuesday. Increasing SW winds also after 16z Tue. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JDR