713 FXUS63 KLMK 011757 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 157 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening in far southern Kentucky. * Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday into Wednesday. * Active weather to return Thursday and Friday with possible strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Deep low pressure is centered over the Northeast US and Canada early this morning, with cyclonic NW flow aloft lingering over the Ohio Valley. A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate through the flow over the Ohio Valley today. At the surface, a cold front is sinking slowly south through central KY this morning. The front will push into southern KY by 12Z this morning before stalling near the KY/TN border today. The boundary will finally sink south of the area tonight. Between 2-8 PM EDT today, weak convergence along the front and BL destabilization may be sufficient for isolated showers/storms to develop in far southern KY. Sfc moisture is modest, but relatively cool temperatures in the mid-levels should yield up to 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the KY/TN border. Lapse rates still look pretty healthy up through 3 km or so, but are quite poor above that. Effective shear is also modest at 25-30 kts, so not expecting many robust updrafts. There is a very low chance for a brief strong storm in far southern KY before much of the precip slips south of the TN border. Otherwise, much of southern IN and central KY will enjoy a nice day. Expect a partly sunny/hazy sky with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s. Highs should top out near 80 degrees in the Bowling Green region. High pressure builds over the region tonight. With light winds and mostly clear conditions, temperatures will drop into the 40s/50s. Expect lows in the mid/upper 40s in the Bluegrass, with low/mid 50s further south and west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Upper level ridging is forecast to amplify and build east over the eastern CONUS Monday and Tuesday. Sfc high pressure initially over the Ohio Valley early Monday will shift east to the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. Fair weather and warming temperatures can be expected, particularly Tuesday when highs should reach the mid/upper 80s. High on Monday will likely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 50s. By Wednesday, the mid/upper level ridge is likely to shift to the East Coast as multiple shortwave disturbances rotate northeast from the Plains across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Lower level SW flow will advect richer moisture into the region ahead of a cold front pushing through the Midwest. This front does still appear likely to stall just northwest of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, but there is enough support to gradually begin to increase PoPs from the northwest during this time. Much of Wednesday could end up dry and hot for most of us, with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Additional waves rotating northeast along the baroclinic zone should help force the boundary through much of the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. We will see much higher rain and thunderstorm chances during this period, and perhaps at least one round of strong storms and heavy rainfall. CIPS analog-based severe weather guidance and the CSU ML severe weather probabilities highlight low-end severe chances in our region late next week. It is possible the front clears the area by Saturday, which would result in a drier forecast. However, confidence is lower from Saturday onward. Could easily see the front stalling/lingering in the region, and we will continue to highlight a chance of showers and storms into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Light NW winds will continue this afternoon and evening, before veering to a light NE and then E component overnight. Calm winds may also be observed. In the meantime, the only real concern is whether some scattered shower or storm activity could get going along a frontal boundary near BWG. For now, most indications are that activity will be south of the TAF site, so will leave any mention out and monitor. The other concern for the overnight will be perhaps some brief fog in the pre-dawn and dawn hours, most likely at BWG or RGA. Can`t rule it out at HNB/LEX either. Winds take on a light SE component for Monday with VFR expected. Some upper level smoke/haze from upstream wildfire activity will contine. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...BJS